Home prices double-dipped in April, dropping 0.7% below the previous low in March 2009, according to analytics firm Clear Capital.
Prices first reached a new low in California in March. But in April national prices fell 5% below levels measured one year ago and decreased 4.9% from the previous three months. National home prices sank 11.5% over the previous nine-month period, a decline not seen since 2008, Clear Capital said.
“Markets have entered uncharted territory,” Clear Capital said.
Every major metropolitan statistical area showed a drop from the previous three months. While spring brings hope of a traditional turnaround, this will be the first homebuying season spent without the homebuyer tax credit since 2008.
The major hurdle is the amount of distressed property on the market. REO sales account for 34.5% of overall activity nationwide after declining to nearly 20% in the middle of 2010, according to Clear Capital. This same pattern surfaced in 2008, when REO saturation grew from 20% to 32% by the end of the year.
“The latest data through April shows a continued increase in the proportion of distressed sales that are taking hold in markets nationwide,” said Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “With more than one-third of national home sales being REO, market prices are being weighed down as many markets have not regained enough footing to withstand the strain of the high proportion of REO sales.”
Clear Capital looked at the home prices trends in 2008 and found similar patterns in 2011. But the stimulus quickly reversed the movement in 2008. Home prices, as of April, are down 25% since the 2008 period. Unlike the last downward push, this one heads into the buying season, which could push prices higher, Clear Capital said. And the market faces many challenges that can only be solved through more sales.
“In light of the compounding effects of winter’s seasonal slowdown and increased distressed sale activity, the market now faces the true test of whether prices can rebound in the historically active spring season,” Villacorta said.
from Clear Capital’s website, through March, 2011:
For the first time in years, a guy who quantifies the foreclosure crisis got to report some good news. Kyle Lundstedt’s colleagues at LPS Applied Analytics call him Dr. Doom, as he calculates all the numbers for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.
But this month he got to report a drop in mortgage delinquencies, down more than 11 percent month-over month, to the lowest level since 2008.
“We’re starting to see that there are a lot of folks who are still hanging in there,” says Lundstedt. “The population is a better credit quality population.”
The subprimes, Alt-A’s, the bad lending of the housing boom, have largely moved through the system already, not to mention that big banks and servicers are getting far more aggressive with loan modifications. One quarter of the loans that were more than 90 days delinquent last year are now current. That’s not to say they will all stay current, but that’s a good sign.
Unfortunately, that’s all Dr. Doom could muster on the bright side: “It’s progress; it’s not game-changing.” That’s because the foreclosure pipeline, that is loans 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process, is enormous.
Foreclosure inventory is at a new all-time high. There are so many loans still waiting to go into foreclosure…in fact the total number of loans 90+ delinquent is 45 times the size of the current monthly foreclosure sale number. 45 times!
Larry Summers, one-time director of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, believes the economy is recovering, albeit not as fast in some areas as desired, but enough to forestall a double dip.
“There is no longer any talk of a depression,” he told journalists at a Lincoln Institute of Land Policy seminar in Cambridge, Mass., over the weekend. “Now, there’s very little talk of a double dip.”
He pointed out that the economy has grown for seven straight quarters and the unemployment rate has fallen.
“The stock market has had the best two-year run since the beginning of the 20th century,” he said. He also said corporate profits are best in any two-year period since World War II.
But he acknowledged things are not improving fast enough.
“To be sure, we have a huge concern that the recovery is not nearly as rapid as we would like,” he said. “The housing sector remains extraordinarily weak. The nation’s long-term debt situation is not where it should be. There have been major steps in financial regulation but we can’t be certain we will avoid another financial crisis.
“But the catastrophe that could have been averted has been averted , and I think it has been averted with a combination of the right diagnosis, determined effort to act on that diagnosis, a good deal of luck and an important change in psychology.”
Summers, who served in the administration from 2009 until early this year, returned to Harvard as president emeritus. He was Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton and chief economist of the World Bank.
From sddt.com (SDCo. homes that have no mortgage = 20%):
Nearly one in three mortgage holders in San Diego owe more than the value of their home, according to a CoreLogic report.
Of residential properties with a mortgage in San Diego County, 29.2 percent, or 173,139, were in negative equity at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, the report said.
Negative equity in the county fell from 29.5 percent at the end of the third quarter. An additional 5 percent, or 29,450 homes, were in near-negative equity, defined as 5 percent equity or less.
Together, mortgages with 5 percent equity or less accounted for 34.5 percent of all homes with a mortgage in the county.
While the percent of San Diego mortgages in negative equity declined on a quarter-to-quarter basis, the percent of homes in near-negative equity increased from 4.8 percent to 5 percent during the same period.
This suggests that the decrease in negative equity came from the foreclosure of underwater mortgages, rather than price increases pushing borrowers above water.
Nationally, negative equity increased in the fourth quarter to 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage, from 22.5 percent in the third quarter.
Prices declined in the last quarter of the year, leading to lower home values and an increase in the rate of negative equity.
An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity nationwide, bringing the total of negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages across the country to 27.9 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage.
“Negative equity holds millions of borrowers captive in their homes, unable to move or sell their properties,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic chief economist. “Until the high level of negative equity begins to recede, the housing and mortgage finance markets will remain very sluggish.”
Of those mortgages in near-negative equity or negative equity nationwide, nearly 10 percent had negative equity of 25 percent or more; California had the third largest share of these severe negative-equity mortgages, with nearly 20 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage.
CoreLogic used public record data to calculate its mortgage debt outstanding, which includes first mortgage liens and junior mortgage liens and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization.
The Santa Ana-based company estimated the current value of homes using its proprietary automated valuation models.
The Case-Shiller November index showed more negativity overall, to the delight of the mainstream media. Calls for the double dip will escalate, and soon the government will think they need to intervene. Hopefully they’ll keep their hands in their pockets, and not ours.
From the C-S press release:
“With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices. Let’s take a moment to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The series are now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed before Spring. Certainly eight cities setting new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “With an annual growth rate of +3.5% in November, Washington DC was the strongest market, but still well below the +7.7% annual rate of growth seen in May 2010. The only city with a gain in November was San Diego, up a scant 0.1%. While San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco are still ahead from November 2009, their annual rates are shrinking in recent months.
Here is the San Diego Case-Shiller Index history:
The idea of lower pricing will cause more people to consider looking to buy a home, but what will they think when they see over-priced turkeys (OPTs) everywhere they go? What will home-lookers do when they realize the disconnect between media reports, and the reality on the street? Commit to spending inordinate amounts of time and energy searching for the needle in the haystack, or give up?
When they can buying anything else they need within minutes, it’s hard to imagine them devoting the time to dig for the deals. But will they just pay the price?
Cramer got fired up about the national spike in December sales, but locally the sales were slightly cooler last month than in 2009. Let’s note than in 2009 there was a tax credit in play, but for the higher-end communities I don’t think it had much impact.
Most of Carlsbad, Encinitas, Rancho Bernardo, RP, Carmel Valley, and Scripps Ranch’s numbers look fairly steady, and Rancho Santa Fe was the most interesting. Check the 3-year December trend for your area below:
“There has been an effective moratorium on foreclosure,” said Roubini.
Around here it looks like the servicers got back on their horse pretty quick:
“The shadow inventory of not-yet-foreclosed homes—due to the moratorium—will surge in the next year,” Roubini says.
Don’t they say that every year? I think the servicers will keep dripping them out little by little. There is no pressure on them to hurry up, and nobody thinks that adding more supply would help the situation. Well, almost nobody.
The detached sales in North San Diego County Coastal have been holding up pretty well in 4Q10.
The 4Q09 sales were somewhat enhanced by the tax credit, yet the last two months aren’t too far behind. This quarter should only end up about 10% lower than the 4Q09 total of 642 sales.
In the peak 2005-2007 era, the pricing for most months was range-bound between $450 to $500/sf, so we’re about 20-25% lower now. It looks pretty steady too – we would need a surge of well-priced inventory to create frenzy, and push pricing higher:
I tacked on 10% to December, 2010’s total to adjust for tomorrow’s closings, and late-reporters. Currently there are 1,261 active listings whose list prices are averaging $619/sf, and have been on the market for an average of 131 days.
The local Case-Shiller index for October dropped again, for the third month in a row. The SD index, which was 165.02 in July, is now down to 159.99 (a plunge of 3%), though year-over-year it’s still up 3%.
Plans are taking shape for 10,000 units of new housing in the heavily industrial area - Is San Diego building an Amazon company town from scratch? https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/story/2021-09-25/san-diego-amazon-company-town
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!