If you think San Diego’s housing market is strained and pricey now, what will it be like in 20 years? Yes, feel free to shudder. No one, of course, can accurately predict that far in advance. There are too many variables at play. But there is one aspect of the current housing market that would seem tough to reverse.
And that’s the ability to build.
For one thing, we have finite developable land, particularly in the city of San Diego. Secondly, a portion of our population appears unwilling to embrace density — at least in their own neighborhoods — which makes it tough on planners and builders to increase supply.
“We’ll be the Bay Area in no time,” said Borre Winckel, president and CEO of the Building Industry Association of San Diego. “We can offer very few product lines for the middle-class buyer.”
San Francisco was once a quirky, counter-cultural city that was home to a bevy of activists, artists and writers. But that city is vanishing because of sky-high housing costs. Now, only the elite can afford to live in the city and, like in Manhattan, low- and middle-income workers are forced to live further afield and make long commutes to their jobs.
San Diego is not far behind. It is already the nation’s fifth most expensive housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only an estimated 25 percent of households can afford the median home price.
Even more troubling, most of the apartment units under construction are higher end, catering to wealthier millennials.
“My lament is that we’re royally screwing the housing opportunity for the middle class and young people,” Winckel said.
San Diego’s population grew by 159,000 people from 2010 to 2014, but the region added only 22,000 housing units in that time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
If that trend continues, experts predict housing prices will continue to rise.
History has shown that the real estate market is guided by a set of fundamentals. Could history change course?
Maybe, and if so, it will be a result of how the buyer pool keeps filling with of first-timers, multi-generational buyers, multi-national buyers, investors buying the bottom 5%-10%, and move-up-or-downers – all while the supply is going in the opposite direction – fast:
We saw the grand opening at Davidson’s Arterro, and the video included snippets of all three models – but only showed the kitchen of the Plan 4x.
A reader asked for high definition, and while I knew I had HD cameras, the editing needed to be in hi-def too – so I think I’ve figured it out.
The camera’s auto-focus is a little slow to adjust, but this should be a better-quality video – especially if you go full-screen. Here’s the complete tour of the 4,434 sf Plan 4x model – in high definition:
This video is broken up with photos because Youtube is concerned about copyright infringement, and background music triggers their auto-sensors.
People are clamoring for more on the La Costa Town Square:
Arterro is the name of the Davidson tract. From their website:
Located off Rancho Santa Fe Road just east of La Costa Avenue, Arterro is a 22-acre residential element of La Costa Town Square, a planned 285,000-square-foot shopping center being developed by the Safeway division on 83 acres.
“A big plus for our homeowners is the ability to walk to several markets and other specialty services,” said Davidson, who noted that the anchor tenant is a 60,000 square foot Von’s store. La Costa Town Square is scheduled to open in mid-2014.
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