Let's get used to reading more 2023 predictions that give vague reasons why the national stats will be negative, with an extra thumping on the west: https://www.fixr.com/resources/housing-market-predictions
2023 Forecast #2
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2023
Seller Hesitancy Will Persist
Every once in a while, a sliver of truth slips into the mainstream media articles. After the usual negativity spewed throughout the front-page UT article about the local Case-Shiller Index declining at one of the worst rates of any town in America, this quote appears...
More Than 10% Off
I said on the Frenzy Cruise that I'd also recognize the NSDCC sales that closed well under their list price. It's good for potential sellers to see how buyers will lowball homes that have been on the market for a while - and encouraging for buyers to know that they...
Turkey Talking Points
Yesterday I was delivering pies throughout North County, and visiting with our great supporters - who were mostly past clients. Predictably, the conversation turns to real estate, and observations about what's going on in the market, now and in the future. In case...
Inventory Watch
There have been 80 NSDCC closings in November, which should mean we should get to at least 100 sales for the month. But with only 108 pendings today, the monthly sales in December and January sales will probably be under 100. Even though there are 393 active...
Motivated Sellers Only
There are three types of sellers: Sure I'm motivated....if I get my price. I'll sell for what the market will bear. Desperate. Unless the home is a real trophy property, this isn't the market that tolerates aspirational sellers. For those who will only sell if they...
The 2023 Spring Selling Season
Could we have a decent spring selling season next year? Is there any precedent of our market settling down that quickly? Home sales had been struggling for months, and then the Lehman Brothers collapse in September, 2008 helped to trigger the Great Recession, and...
More on 2023 Pricing
A benefit of prices going up so fast in early 2022 was that future sellers may not have noticed - and they might be happy to sell for 2021 prices next year. But there are other items that will complicate the matter: With sales are down as much as 50%, the evidence...
Predicting 2023 Annual Sales
In California, about 70% of the outstanding mortgages have a mortgage rate below 4%, which means it's unlikely that many of those homeowners will move if they have to qualify for and accept a much-higher rate. Plus, about 30% of local homeowners don't have a mortgage....
NSDCC October Listings
Next year, everyone will be talking about how mortgage rates in the 7s or 8s will be causing a lack of affordability, but I have bad news for those who still want to buy. There probably won't be many homes for sale. It will only take one or two headlines about the...
