This guy says a housing bubble is brewing because: A) incomes aren’t going up as fast as homes prices, B) the cost of building materials has risen, and C) oil production should collapse. But if gas prices go up higher, aren’t electric or hybrid cars the answer? For home prices to fall, we would need desperate sellers who need the money so bad they will sell at any price, which sounds more like a boomer liquidation sale – which has been elusive so far, and mitigated by reverse mortgages.
Hat tip to Richard for submitting – here’s the summary:
For these reasons, I see a 3 Stage Collapse of the U.S. Housing Market. The 1st stage of the housing collapse will occur when the broader markets experience a 25-50% sell-off. At this point, the U.S. median home price will fall 40% to $200,000. As U.S. oil production continues to decline, we will enter the second stage as the U.S. median home price drops 60% to $120,000.
The 3rd stage of the U.S. Housing Collapse will occur likely by 2030 (or possibly sooner) as domestic oil production falls 50-75%. As Americans and citizens of the world understand that oil production will continue to decline, the value of stocks, bonds, and real estate will also continue to fall. Which is why I see the U.S. median home price to $40,000 in the 3rd stage of the collapse.
Of course, my timing could be off by a few years, but not decades. Either way, the notion that real estate values will always rise in the future will be DEAD for GOOD as the market is impacted negatively due to falling oil production.
Adam Blaylock was pretty sure he overpriced his Santa Clara, California, home by offering it in February for $1.48 million, since tax deduction changes would keep buyers away. But within a week, the 1,280-square-foot ranch-style house was in contract for $155,000 above asking.
The $1.5 trillion tax overhaul President Donald Trump signed in December capped mortgage-interest deductions on loans up to $750,000, down from the prior limit of $1 million. It also set a $10,000 maximum for state and local tax deductions, which were previously unlimited. Those provisions prompted one of the most powerful lobbying groups — the National Association of Realtors — to warn that home prices in some high-end markets would tank.
So far though, those areas have proven to be resilient. There are 308 U.S. ZIP codes that have homes with median values in excess of $1 million — more than 92 percent of them saw their median home prices increase in March from a year earlier, according to data from online real estate database Zillow.
“We are seeing the opposite of what was expected,” said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. “We have certainly not seen the doomsday predictions play out.”
We just had the Kinman brothers from Carlsbad featured here a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, Tony Kinman passed away from cancer on Friday – here are two articles:
Born in 1956, Tony grew up with his family in Carlsbad. He and Chip formed the Dils in 1977, becoming one of San Diego’s first working punk bands, playing many of the city’s first punk shows, alongside the Zeros, the Hitmakers, the Penetrators, and others. Locals still talk about the near riots at venues like the Adams Avenue Theater whenever bands like the Zeros and the Dils were paired.
“Our first show was at a pizza parlor in Del Mar,” Chip recalled for the Reader in 2016. “Our posters had Jack Ruby shooting Lee Harvey Oswald. They pulled the plug on us. We didn’t even get through one song. But we kind of expected that. We played the gazebo at Holiday Park [in Carlsbad] one afternoon knowing we were going to get shut down.” The anti-establishment theme continued with singles like “I Hate the Rich” b/w “You’re Not Blank” on the What? Records label.
Simplicity in the Sands! A spacious, light and bright home with an open floor plan features four bedrooms and 2.5 baths, 2,286sf, and is located in the prime Del Mar school district south of the 56. The floor plan features a family room with fireplace, a good size kitchen with center island and a walk-in pantry. Large master bedroom with sitting area and outdoor balcony. Master bath includes a soaking tub, separate shower, dual sinks and a generous size walk-in closet. Enjoy the sun-drenched living room and an adjacent dining room. The backyard has a private patio and grassy area.
4250 Calle Mar De Ballenas, San Diego 92130
Jim represented the buyer in this off-market deal. SP = $1,110,000.
801 Kalpati, unit F, in Carlsbad, west of the I-5 freeway.
Top-floor single level penthouse with soaring ceilings and panoramic ocean views from the family room, kitchen, master suite! Hardwood floors, numerous skylights, stained glass windows, extra-large master bath with three closets, plus multiple ocean-view balconies for your morning coffee!! Two-car garage too. Home is located on the furthest west end of Windsong Cove – the best location of the whole complex!
Sold for $719,500 – when every comp in the complex were in the $500,000s!
My new listing is west of the I-5 freeway at 801 Kalpati, unit F, in Carlsbad.
Top-floor single level penthouse with soaring ceilings and panoramic ocean views from the family room, kitchen, master suite! Hardwood floors, numerous skylights, stained glass windows, extra-large master bath with three closets, plus multiple ocean-view balconies for your morning coffee!! Two-car garage too. Home is located on the furthest west end of Windsong Cove – the best location of the whole complex! There have been nine sales on Kalpati between $660,000 and $699,900 over the last two years!
What a party – hope no one takes away the punch bowl.
Five out of the six components of Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) gained ground in April, driving the index to a new all-time high. However, the sixth component showed consumers considerably less invested in it being a good time to buy a home.
The HPSI rose 3.4 points to 91.7 in April, up 5 percentage points since April 2017. The responses broke through the previous high of 89.5, reached in both December 2017 and January 2018. The milestone came despite a decrease of 3 percent in the net share of respondents who said now is a good time to buy a home. The net of 29 for that question was still way above the record low net of 18 from the survey last August.
The net share reporting that now is a good time to sell a home increased 6 percentage points to 45 percent. This was a new survey high for that component, which rose 19 percentage points over the 12 months ended in April.
“The latest HPSI reading edged up to a new survey high, showing that consumer attitudes remain resilient going into the spring/summer home buying season,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “High home prices and good economic conditions helped push the share of Americans who think it’s a good time to sell to a fresh record high. However, the upward trend in the good-time-to-sell share seen since last spring has done little to release more for-sale inventory. The tightest supply in decades, combined with rising mortgage rates from historically low levels, will likely remain a hurdle for mobility and a persistent headwind for home sales.”
The net share of respondents who said home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 7 percentage points in April to 49 percent. Among those who expect further price increases the average amount projected was 3.9 percent, up from 3.0 percent in March.
The weather is starting to heat up, which only means one thing… SUMMER is right around the corner! What? Didn’t 2018 just start? Yeah I have no idea where the last 4 months went either but summer vacation (ugh I miss those days) is here!
Now for San Diego, it’s pretty much 70 degrees year round. But we did have some rainy days this year so I think I can speak for all of San Diego, we are excited for longer days with maximum sunshine!
Nothing is better than kicking off summer than with a backyard party! There are so many unique designs to use for your backyard these days so I created a Pinterest board with some of my favorites! Check them out below!
1. Beer coolers – there are so many good craft breweries in San Diego so we got to make sure that beer stays cool! I love the idea of removing a plank out of the picnic table and inserting a cooler instead. Some people like to have a cooler on top of their BBQ so it’s within arm’s length for the cook.
2. Wine racks – calling all wine connoisseurs! You can do a DIY wine rack out of pallets and attach it to your fence or deck area!
3. Market lights – this is super trendy right now. Market lights definitely create an intimate setting. You only need a few strands too! Don’t go overboard and make it feel like it’s daylight.
4. TVs – this is super popular as well when it comes to outdoor entertaining. I like to make sure it has a proper cover though to keep it shielded from the natural elements. There’s some that you can buy but I’ve also seen people hide it behind small barn doors. And if this is all too much, I’ve seen people buy a roll down screen with a projector!
5. Fire pits – also another crowd favorite. People like to have them built into the ground but now you can buy them at the stores for a decent price!
6. Swim up bars – OK so this one might be a pretty expensive thing to do but come on they are so cool! I’ve only seen them at super fancy homes/resorts but if I could have a pool, I would totally have a swim up bar! However with small kids, it might get a little messy – I don’t think I want to be picking up soggy chicken nuggets LOL.
Compared to previous years, the detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are holding up remarkably well. With the significant increase in pricing, we can’t expect sales to equal previous Aprils, so 260 is pretty strong:
Year
# of Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
26
2015
282
$475/sf
$1,077,500
20
2016
305
$518/sf
$1,120,000
20
2017
277
$536/sf
$1,282,131
15
2018
260
$571/sf
$1,295,000
15
I’m sticking with my prediction of NSDCC 2018 sales dropping 10% YoY.
Here are the sales totals for January through April:
2013: 975
2014: 839
2015: 916
2016: 878
2017: 883
2018: 832 (-6%)
As long as we can keep generating millionaire buyers organically, or import them from a far (mostly retirees), we’ll be fine.
