by Jim the Realtor | Jan 14, 2014 | Inventory, Sales and Price Check
There are more and more opinions about the market “moderating” and “getting back to normal”. Compared to what?
Now that the 2013 stats are wrapping up, let’s compare it to previous years – and note how unusual the SD County inventory counts have been lately:
| Year |
SD Annual Sales |
SD Total Listings |
Percentage |
| 2001 |
35,421 |
53,218 |
67% |
| 2002 |
39,923 |
52,012 |
77% |
| 2003 |
43,666 |
52,811 |
83% |
| 2004 |
43,390 |
62,759 |
69% |
| 2005 |
41,268 |
71,344 |
58% |
| 2006 |
31,330 |
78,862 |
40% |
| 2007 |
25,502 |
73,557 |
35% |
| 2008 |
29,775 |
66,382 |
49% |
| 2009 |
35,253 |
54,647 |
65% |
| 2010 |
33,367 |
58,198 |
57% |
| 2011 |
33,121 |
53,996 |
61% |
| 2012 |
37,283 |
47,178 |
79% |
| 2013 |
37,633 |
49,466 |
76% |
There are more people and houses now than 10-12 years ago, yet the inventory has been lower. The inventory was steady from 2001 to 2003, but as equity/profits grew – and could be taken tax-free – the inventory took off in the 2004-2007 era.
We’re all older now, and probably less willing to move. Will the want/need for profits start kicking in this year? Keep an eye on the inventory!
All SD Listings Inputted Jan 1-11
2009: 1,739
2010: 1.775
2011: 2,057
2012: 1,775
2013: 1,537
2014: 1,568
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 13, 2014 | Bottom Talk, Bubbleinfo TV |
We should see Bubbleinfo-TV-by-drone before too long, and I was wondering what else could be done with real estate videos. Remember these guys? You don’t think it will come to this, do you?
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 13, 2014 | Inventory
The number of homes for sale under $1,400,000 is still in decline, while above that has started to build. Any surge in either direction will be noteworthy. Maybe now that the Chargers’ run is over (and temperatures will be near 80 degrees this week), we will see more action:
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
| December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
| December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
| December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
| December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
| December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
| January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
| January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
| December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
| December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
| December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
| December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
| December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
| January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
| January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 12, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley |
Buyers are optimistic enough about the potential increase in inventory – heck, we’re at historic lows – that they aren’t going to jump this high, this early:
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 12, 2014 | Remodel Projects
Here’s a tour of remodel and 700sf addition being done by architect Mark Morris on his own house in Pacific Beach – we’ll come back to see the finished product in a couple of months!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 11, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim |
It’s natural for home buyers to be leery about paying too much. Since the beginning of time, sellers have always pushed for a higher price, and buyers want to pay less. It’s the primary reason why agents have a job.
But the market’s recent resurgence has seen many buyers gladly pay full price – and higher. The more-conservative buyers are reluctant to participate in such folly, yet the folks who got in to their house 12-18 months ago are thanking their lucky stars. They probably paid what seemed to be a premium then – but now their house is worth more.
I’m going to do my best to get you a great price. But if you are in for the long haul, don’t let a couple of percentage points stop you. Add a little mustard to your offer price, and get it done!
How to Justify Paying a Premium Price
Only pay a premium price for a premium product. If the home has obvious defects in condition, location, or suitability, then reject, rather than paying retail, or retail-plus.
Timing is everything. With low inventory, you may not get another chance for weeks or months. If you don’t have flexibility in your schedule, then make sure you get the next premium house that hits the market.
Know the value of upgrades. Have a keen sense about the cost of upgrades, so you can pay the right price for an premium product – or know how much it will cost to upgrade a plain-jane.
Sniff Test/Days on Market. After a few weeks on the market, the only way a seller can justify his high list price is that the market is catching up with him, which is verifiable. Otherwise, just say no – at least for now.
Just cap it to 5% or less. If you have to pay more than you think it is worth, try to keep the price paid to under 105% of its actual value. The appraisers will live with that, and so will the bank’s underwriter – there is wiggle room.
Wait for market downturn. No problem, it could happen. But sellers won’t be convinced until 1-2 years into a decline or flattening, and the premium homes will be the last to feel it. Get your easy chair and popcorn.
People have more horsepower than you. People with more money are throwing it around, and the competition has been fierce. Your best hope is to out-smart them, so be crafty.
Money isn’t everything. Based on how fast prices have gone up, it appears that buyers think there are more important things than their money. Real estate is becoming a highly-valued asset due to the intrinsic value – shelter in which to raise a family.
Never pay more than you are comfortable paying. But with tight inventory and low rates, know that sellers are going to keep pushing higher, and many less sophisticated buyers and agents are going to jump – especially at the good ones.
Get good help!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 10, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Rancho Santa Fe |
This might have gotten snapped up back in the heyday when spec builders were more active because of the lot size. But today four acres just looks like a lot of work, and a retro remodel would cost a bundle:
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 10, 2014 | Short Sales, Short Selling
Can we make the case that short sales are the precursor to foreclosures?
Those underwater probably won’t sell unless pressure is being applied through the foreclsoure process. The ‘waterfall’ of banker events starts with a loan-mod attempt, and if that doesn’t work, then a try at short selling before getting foreclosed.
Here are the counts of SD County short-sale listings that have hit the MLS between Jan 1-9 (there will be a few added to this year’s number):
2011: 395
2012: 337
2013: 148
2014: 38
It doesn’t look like the foreclosure machine is back in business yet. Many thought that the dropoff was due to banks having to re-tool due to the newly passed CA Homeowners Bill of Rights causing the 148 last year.
The decline has been steady on the graph below. It’s hard to believe that the defaulters just started making their payments all of a sudden:
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 9, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Builders, Mello-Roos |
These new homes next to the Crosby look reasonably priced – well, except for the HOA and Mello-Roos fees. They have five of these Plan-2 houses for sale, starting at $250/sf, which isn’t bad for homes with the master suite downstairs, private guest suite, and lot sizes that average 18,000sf.
But the monthly fees will make your head spin, and probably why they have standing inventory.
HOA fee at build-out = $536/mo.
Mello-Roos = $543 to $887 per month, depending on size of house/lot.
Combined total = $1,079 to $1,423 per month.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 9, 2014 | Bubbleinfo Readers |
The readership here at bubbleinfo.com has been evolving.
Between the market bottoming and comment section getting sorted out (from free-for-all to moderated), we lost a few folks.
At the end of 2011, we were reaching 14,000+ unique visitors per month, with 80% of them male.
Over the last six months, there have been 8,000+ unique visitors per month, and closer to a 50/50 split between male and female readers:
Other curious data points from Google Analytics:
1. There has always been a steady stream of new folks that make up about a third of the monthly unique visitors. These days, 4% of them come from twitter/facebook, and 4% come from piggington.com (THANK YOU RICH TOSCANO!). The rest are all organic.
2. About half of the visitors stop by at least 9 times per month, and 36% visit more than 51 times per month – thank you for your loyalty and commitment!
3. Two-thirds of the visitors stay for less than ten seconds – I gotta be laser!
4. One-third of the readers are using mobile devices (phones & tablets), and two-thirds are on desktops. For mobile users – the bubbleinfo mobile app should be out soon!
5. The age groups are fascinating – 61% of the readers are under 35:
Thank you for being here – I will do my best to keep it lively, and worth coming back! If you, or someone you know, is thinking about moving, I’d love to assist.
