Poll Results: Trickle vs. Flood

The poll results ran about 3 to 1 in favor of trickle, but I think we can agree that a flood is certainly possible.  All it would take is: 

1.  Citizens revolt, resulting in a political uprising that turns off the backstop, or

2.  One of the servicers who also owns a lot of paper breaks rank, and unloads.  They decide that being the first one out wins.  But it would take a real renegade.

Where is Angelo when you need him?

La Jolla #1

The 2009 Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison Index (HPCI) found a price gap of more than $2 million between the most expensive and affordable U.S. markets.

In the annual comparison of similar 2,200-square foot homes in 310 U.S. markets, La Jolla, Calif., led the list as the most expensive real estate market in the country with an average home price of $2,125,000. Grayling, Mich., also known as the “canoe capital of the world,” ranked as the most affordable market in America, where a similarly sized home costs $112,675.

La Jolla was joined on the most expensive list by 13 other California markets while Grayling was one of 20 Midwest communities on the most affordable list. Internationally, Singapore was the most expensive market for the same type of home, $1.9 million U.S. dollars, compared with Salinas, Ecuador, which at $69,375 U.S. dollars was the most affordable studied international market.

Differing from most housing reports that compare median prices, the annual Coldwell Banker HPCI, provides an apples-to-apples comparison of similar 2,200 square foot, four-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath homes in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada and a sampling of countries/territories outside of North America where Coldwell Banker Real Estate has a presence.


Poll: Will There Be A Flood?

CR is covering the news better than ever, but for those who may have missed this week’s latest reports on the so-called ‘shadow inventory’, here are two articles (hat tip to MM for sending both!)



An excerpt from Bloomberg’s:

“The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.”

Talking about a flood of foreclosures may sell a few newspapers, but will it ever happen?

Here are the number of new REO listings inputted onto the MLS the last seven weeks:

211, 198, 191, 208, 196, 177, 208

We could say they increased 18% in the latest week, but hardly a tsunami.  We’d need to see hundreds more per week to believe the flood is for real.  Until then, the drip method will remain the servicers’ preferred choice of liquidation. 

Who knows if they could flood the market if they wanted to?

I heard a good one yesterday though from an insider – Chase is “sitting on” roughly 450,000 properties, mostly from the WaMu portfolio, which I speculated means they have a lot of defaulters, not REOs.  Unless they are hiring thousands of new staff people to push those through, it’ll take them years to resolve that mess.

Expect the trickle to continue, at least for now.

Let’s take a poll:

Do you think we’ll ever see a flood, or will the-powers-that-be keep trickling us forever?


Cooking on Manzanita Trail

We stopped at the Pardee tract in Carmel Valley called Manzanita Trail a few months back, and a reader asked for an update – here is a link to our first visit: Link to original post

Here is the follow-up:

Pattie is a great salesperson, and has a lot to do with their success. The enthusiasm for pitching the product over and over usually wanes quickly for most tract salespeople, but not with Pattie – you get the feeling she still enjoys coming to work every day.

Tsunami Needed

The Chargers are off to a rocky start, though 1-1 is better than the 0-2 they did last year. 

How is our contest looking for playoff tickets?

We were guessing:

How Many Total Active Listings on December 1st, 2009?

December, 2008 the average amount of homes for sale was 15,116.

On August 11, 2009, the total amount of active listings was 11,457.

Today we’re down to 8,149 attached and detached active listings in SD County. 

By the time we get to December, we’re going to be around half of last year’s number! 

How hot is it?  There are 11,011 pendings today!

The list of guessers is in the comment section, and here is the original post: https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/08/11/chargers-contest/

PHR Park Idea

My kids will tell you, all I ever want to do is sit around and talk old high school baseball stories.

In 1977, I was in the first graduating class of Shadow Mountain High School in Phoenix, Arizona.  Because the school was brand new, the baseball field was still desert-like.

Every Saturday our baseball coach, William Hatcher, made us come down to the field at a very unreasonable hour.  Our job?  To pick up rocks out of our infield so we’d get better hops.

Every Saturday for three years.

You can take a barren piece of desert and make something of it – ask Curt Schilling, who became an all-state pitcher on the same field…..in a small way thanks to us.

Can something be done here?

No Park Yet for PHR

From our friends at the voice:


An excerpt:

They moved into the unfinished, developing community expecting that as it grew, public facilities like schools, parks and libraries would follow. With reason: it says so in the community plan.

But the city’s budget woes haven’t been any more sparing on unfinished communities than the rest of the city. So while neighborhoods citywide worry over mayoral warnings that their parks and libraries could become casualties of future budget cuts, residents here would be satisfied if only they had a park to worry about, too.

Plans for a 5-acre neighborhood park, which residents say is overdue and sorely needed because of the community’s density, have languished.  They say the city has reneged on its obligations to provide basic services as a tradeoff for higher density.

Public facilities for new developments like Pacific Highlands Ranch are financed with special assessments on developers. The city collects a facilities benefit assessment for each parcel granted a building permit, and those assessments are reflected in homes’ purchase prices. This year, the FBA for a single family unit parcel is almost $80,000.

Selecting A Realtor

The U-T had a full report yesterday on how to choose a realtor (link below) but this is the only paragraph you need.  The realtor’s answer to these two questions tells you everything you need to know about their effectiveness in providing you with real help in this market:

“How many homes did you list and sell in the last year? This ratio will give you a “success” score card to judge how they’ve coped in a tough market. Ask to see the agent’s production count that is available online to members of Sandicor, San Diego County’s multiple listing service. And ask how many listings and buyers they are working with today.”

Link to full article:


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