The Chargers are off to a rocky start, though 1-1 is better than the 0-2 they did last year.
How is our contest looking for playoff tickets?
We were guessing:
How Many Total Active Listings on December 1st, 2009?
December, 2008 the average amount of homes for sale was 15,116.
On August 11, 2009, the total amount of active listings was 11,457.
Today we’re down to 8,149 attached and detached active listings in SD County.
By the time we get to December, we’re going to be around half of last year’s number!
How hot is it? There are 11,011 pendings today!
The list of guessers is in the comment section, and here is the original post: https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/08/11/chargers-contest/
Guesses:
1 – SJ
2 – Matt in Colorado
7,123 – mybleachhouse
8,100 – CA renter
8,401 – Wes
8,422 – Francois Caron
8,457 – Nathan
9,200 – Kingside
9,233 – The Blur
9,350 – Rent is the new HOA
9,472 – garbler
9,731 – Geotpf
9,732 – UCGal
9,800 – Timeye
9,999 – Del Sur Renter
10,082 – New_Renter
10,200 – sdduuuude
10,450 – Mozart
10,500 – greenlander
10,501 – Sue
10,561 – 3clicks to the beach
10,600 – REB
10,925 – dwr
10,938 – sperlyjinx
11,100 – David
11,400 – hillcrest
11,457 – Genius living at Qualcomm
11,500 – JordanT
12,000 – doughboy
12,100 – KO
12,125 – Dwalla
12,323 – Al in IC
12,345 – Rob Dawg
12,420 – Neil Diamond
12,499 – Alex SD
12,545 – tobias
12,567 – Skeet
12,750 – Dacounselor
13,011 – Don Q
13,125 – OVCVulture
13,131 – RBRenter
13,215 – Myriad
13,299 – Susie
13,420 – Kook1315
13,457 – Jack
13,589 – Nate TG
13,666 – 4sRenter
13,717 – SDcop
13,811 – aljanet
14,251 – JK
14,367 – Harvey
14,388 – dejams
14,450 – mtb
14,520 – KKertzman
14,637 – Justabroker
14,752 – Knockout
15,000 – Neil
15,115 – sdny
15,217 – BAM
15,250 – Big E.
15,999 – Pigpen
16,000 – chrisL
16,250 – susanunit
16,349 – SFrench
16,500 – tj and the bear
16,777 – cccactii
16,998 – Michael S
17,004 – bobfather99
17,500 – sdnerd
17,500 – pepsi
17,850 – Gunny
17,855 – Kelja
18,000 – Sol
18,235 – CVman
18,333 – gywright
18,562 – MDS
19,007 – JAP
19,312 – FreedomCM
20,000 – propertysearch
21,000 – GG
21,342 – Carlsbad Renter
Makes no sense…
Foreclosure numbers are going up in record numbers.
Number of homes listed on the MLS is going down.
I’ve been hanging with permabears too long.
My Bank sources are telling me that the next wave will not hit until Feb at the earliest.
The outsourcers are in the same boat as the realtors. many have been told to ramp up employees for the wave to hit this past march,then April , may , Summer etc. , only to finally give up and start laying off Asset managers and employees.
with that said- All of the shadow inventory is in fact the banks not foreclosing on the delinquencies(for various reasons)and it is monsterous in proportion that Dwarfs what we say in 2008. I know many people personally who have not made a payment in at least a year with No NOD filed yet. Isnt life just great? Should be interesting how this plays out.
Mozart.
Do you think about the words before they come out?
Chuck
Jim,
Alas, the problem is not as simple as it seems, and I’m sure you know that.
The introduction of the “contingent”, and rule changes of short-sale to be pushed to contingent regardless of their chance of actually closing is dramatically distorting year-over-year comparisons.
Add in that the 8K 2009 new flippers credit is expiring, and you’ve got a rush that would make 2005 blush. Who knew incentives matter?
If you want to know what 2009 will look like in historical perspective, I believe it will look a lot like 1993. It’s not over yet, not by a long shot, but it’s a nice reprieve that allows some to still get out (good for them).
Anyone willing to bet me that this is the bottom, I’m taking odds. And I have a lot of cash to back it up.
Chuck
I guessed one less than the lowest guess at the time I posted, although a bunch of people guessed lower after me. Serves me right for thinking I was on the Price is Right. 😛
I’m now going to guess that Matt in Colorado, mybleachhouse, or CA Renter will be the winning guesser. That is, the number will be between 2 and 8,250.
Now that I think about it, one can’t go over on the Price is Right. That doesn’t apply here. 😛
I thought I was on Rob Dawg’s site for a second.
Is that excluding contingent listings?
SDLookup shows 11,958 active detached+detached (including contingent), and their number has been staying within 11,500 – 12,000 range since June.
Alas Chucky, let me try thinking first; here it comes… your are a hopeless, angry, bitter, pessimist.
I guess for one I thought the incentive would help and yes, the bottom has come and gone for the lower tier, the upper and middle are in the process of grinding through it. Watch as financing becomes more accessible for this market.
Did I mention your blog sucks? Yeah, thought about that one too. I can’t believe you actually provide a link to that dribble.
I’m not including contingents as actives. The rationale was that I can’t sell them today, and at least 50% will close – like pendings.
I whipped it out pretty fast without triple verifying, so I could be wrong about actives dropping by 3,300 in six weeks. I’ll check on them.
Mozart, go do something useful and get into a car accident. You’re as annoying as the trolls back in 2005 who claimed there was no bubble.
Mozart, go do something useful and get into a car accident. You’re as annoying as the trolls back in 2005 who claimed there was no bubble.
Genius | September 22nd, 2009 at 8:04 pm
——————-
But it just isn’t any fun if we sit around agreeing with one another. We need the trolls/bulls to keep reminding us about how we are “bitter, jealous renters.” 🙂
First they ignore you,
Then they laugh at you,
Then they fight you,
Then you win.
Mohandas Gandhi
My Bank sources are telling me that the next wave will not hit until Feb at the earliest.
Ahh yes – its the fairytale that never ends.
The now discredited Mr. Mortgage told us about “the quickening” – the dumping of REO set to start in Sept 2008.
We were then told, “my bank sources say it starts late winter”.
We were then told, the moratorium ends and my sources say it starts spring 2009.
We were then told, my sources say it starts late spring, early summer.
We were then told, it starts late summer.
We are now told it starts Feb 2010.
Nothing personal, but isnt part of the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? When are we going to wake up and realize there is no TSUNAMI coming???
MJ,
While you are right. One simple fact remains…
Foreclosures and NODs are going up.
But…
The number of houses for sale on the MLS is going down.
What gives?
Just because the banks aren’t releasing them to the public doesn’t mean they aren’t there.
It might be this year, or the next, or the one after that…but one thing is clear: there IS a foreclosure backlog. When and how they handle these is the trillion-dollar question.
Mr. Mortgage, and the many others who’ve said the “tsunami is coming,” are NOT discredited. They are just early.
Years ago, the bulls used to harass the bears because the housing market didn’t crash in 2004, 2005, 2006… The bears were 100% right, and 100% early.
What gives is they are dribbling them out onto the market drip by drip. After the relaxation of the MTM rules, they were allowed to do this, with the hope being (like all cartels) if you restrict supply, you will cause price stability. We all said they couldnt do it. They did. Now that they have achieved stability, why would they destroy what they have worked so hard to achieve?
I dont dispute the fact that the shadow inventory exists, just how it is dispensed. Just like a pool of water, if the dam broke and all the water rushed in at once, thats a “TSUNAMI”. If a garden hose is attached and the pool drained slowly over the next 1-2-5 years, thats not a tsunami – there is a difference.
“Mr. Mortgage, and the many others who’ve said the “tsunami is coming,” are NOT discredited. They are just early.”
OH REALLY??? Permadoomer Robert Precther gained fame calling the dow market run in the early 1980s. In 1989 he called for great depression II and dow crashing to 400 by 1991 or 1992.
He was largely discredited by 1994.
The most recent turmoil has caused him to renew his call. He has some adherents but they are droping like flies once again.
Maybe he is right maybe dow will get to 400. If the chinese nuke us or swine flu knocks out 50% of the population, dow 400 seems very likely. So I guess he too is not “wrong” just “early” right???