From our friends at housingtracker.net:
In August 2007 there were over 20,000 homes for sale, and today there are 11,457:
Causing sellers to be more optimistic with their list prices recently:
Though with 22,462 houses and condos on foreclosureradar’s list of NODs, NOTs, and REOs, there has to be relief ahead, doesn’t there? Typically in January we see the low inventory count for the year, before the spring kick.
Let’s use the active inventory as one of our primary indicators.
We’ve seen over the last few months how frenzied up buyers can get when there are few homes for sale. If we head into the 2010 spring kick with an ultra-low inventory and decent interest rates, it’s going to be off to the races.
If there is a surge of REOs over the next six months, and we head into the spring with a bloated inventory, then we could slog along.
We’ll probably know where we stand by the holidays.
Housingtracker’s average for last December was 15,116 homes for sale, and today’s count is 11,457 listings.
If the active inventory is rising by the holidays, then trouble is brewing, because normally the inventory declines towards year-end. If there are fewer homes on the market in December than there are today, then the spring kick should be lively – any increase in REO inventory could correspond with the usual seasonal boost.
Where do you think we’ll be?
Guess how many attached and detached active listings there will be on the morning of December 1st, and the closest guesser will receive two tickets to a Chargers game!
We’ll have an instant winner too – the best explanation for a guess will receive four Padres tickets for Saturday August 22nd vs. Cardinals at 7:05pm!
Explanation: There will continue to be more and more houses that *should* be on the market (REOs) but the banks will continue to kick the can down the road, not taking that steps of moving from NOD to NOT. Loan mods will continue to extend. Why sell when you can live in the house for free.
Explanation: Money is not as tight as it was earlier this year and people are feeling better about spending it. Sellers that have been sitting on the fence will see the momentum building and will want in. Fence-sitting buyers will feel the same. The dynamic between these two will pretty much cancel each other out.
Investors will stop sopping up the inventory as the low end inventory is depleted, the mid and high end will sit longer, and be supplemented by a steady, but not tsunami-like, stream of REO and SS inventory.
FreedonCM – 19,312, WOW!
A previous winner too!
Explanation: Because in this market, the best guess is a wild one.
1/4 of the existing pre-foreclosures could make it to the mls (so called surge). I don’t think the bank’s staff can handle unloading any more by December once the moratorium ends. I think today’s inventory will stay steady (not much to begin with) with less traditional buyers due to the school season and the holiday’s. So it will be the usual short sales, small amount of normal sales, and the new increase of REO’s.
First time buyers disappear mid Oct as the rush for the govt first time buyer bonus fades. Would be higher if banks stopped trickling out REOs, but with Mark-to-Market gone what’s the hurry?
back to 14,367
It will start to surge up but those in position to manipulate will keep the number below the average for last year (15,116) in order to keep the headline value of a YOY inventory drop.
I’m very curios to see YoY sales numbers starting from July’s numbers. Jan-Jun 08 were very slow, then things picked up in July and have stayed ‘elevated’ since then.
A lot of news articles said housing was doing good cause prices were declining less and YoY numbers were up (up from the worst numbers on record).
Prices are up from last year, but are sales?
18,562 Decemer 1, 2009 active listings
SD Detached and Attached Sales
$267 avg $-per-sf
3,212 sales (+7%)
$228 avg $-per-sf (-15%)
More graphs in the works, but here’s NSD Coastal only (CBAD to CV):
$404 avg $-per-sf
317 sales (+4%)
$331 avg $-per-sf (-18%)
Whoever wins it will be an accident just like the Chargers.
Does the loser get twice as many tickets?
The usual slow down in buying in the fall/winter combine with interest rates creeping up will bring inventory up.
16,000 is my guess.
I think inventory will go up as more people think they can get out of the market unscathed because prices have ticked up a bit. This will be their chance to make something happen. Interest rates are low and the government is still offering a 1st time home buyers subsidy. Additionally, unemployment is still a major economic drag, and with Cali hitting 10%+, things are only sure to get worse as far as price is concerned. If these people want to sell, then I think this is their last chance to make something happen and relieve themselves from the burden of an unaffordable mortgage.
Yeah, talk about optimistic. Check out these two houses.
15068 Dove Creek
Sq. Ft.: 2,492
$/Sq. Ft.: $260
15056 Dove Creek
Sq. Ft.: 2,586
$/Sq. Ft.: $773
This guy raised the list price from $1M to $2M in June.
Because no one has 12xxx.
13215 – because those are the numbers I hit with my left hand on the keyboard.
My real explanation: Inventory will climb between now and Dec 1st as the spring/summer seasonal increase dissipates. As the $8k tax credit expires Nov. 30th, first time buyers will need to buy within the next 2 months and by Nov, those sales should decline. There should be an increase in REOs as more homes go through the foreclosure process, but the release from the banks will still be slow. Also, the economy will feel worse as unemployment is still increasing and more people will be nearing the end of their unemployment insurance leading to poor consumer spending throughout the rest of the year.
Bonus prize. If I win, Jim has to go to the game.
I’m going to go for 11,500.
Seasonality is not a major factor in this market as the buyers are investors and first time home buyers (very similar dynamic to last fall). The number of distressed sellers will stay about the same as well, since there doesn’t seem to be much seasonality to NODs/NOTs. Congress will at least extend the $8,000 housing credit, with a chance of making it $15,000 to anyone.
Therefore, the market is going to be very similar to what it is today.
Dang it, I didn’t check the schedule.
The only two home games left are:
12/20 – Cincinnati
1/3 – Washington
Now that Dawg gave me a vested interest, let’s spice it up.
Let’s make it two tickets to the FIRST HOME PLAYOFF game!
If disaster strikes, and the playoffs seem out of reach, it’ll be the Redskins game.
What section are the seats in? 🙂
I don’t have the tickets yet, I’m not a season-ticket holder.
But last year the tickets won by mojo were about halfway up the field level on the Chargers side at the 25-yard line. They weren’t playoff tickets, but I think I can find a decent set.
10561 rounded down
I kept the political, REO and economy components constant mostly because the stat and gov’t can’t manage their way out of a paper bag. Given what we know (11,437 listings in Aug ’09), I determine a factor to yield listings for Nov and December ’09. Since we have to guess the listings as of Dec 1st I’ll used the November number.
17500 because we won’t have another moratorium this year. Health care will be the focus of the government.
I’ll go with 16,500 because I expect sales to drop and REOs to climb, but many people (and companies) will hold inventory off market waiting for next spring.
I don’t believe the current rally has legs. As summer and sunshine wane, so will enthusiasm.
1. When more ALT A and Option ARMs begin to recast, inventory will explode.
2. There is only a finite number of investors/first home buyers out there to soak up the increase in inventory.
3. There are even less with cash.
4. This recession will last much longer than most people expect.
5. Unemployment is getting progressively worse, not better.
6. The stock market is going to crash again. This will cause people hold off on major purchases.
The lower end seems to be cleaning up, but I think the higher end is suffocating – that’s why list prices are up. The $1MM crowd is starting to try to unload. Stock market will pull back, starting in Sept thru Holiday. Unemployment won’t change. Loans and appraisals still a pain to get. We’re frozen.
The factors I look at:
1) Macroeconomic environment
2) Government action
3) The speed of markets in general.
5) The speed at which banks list REOs.
Overall, 2009 is just a calmer year after a tumultuous 2007-2008. People are dying for some sense of normalcy and the mainstream media is really focusing on green shoots, stability, and bottoms.
While I think 2010 is shaping up to be a surprisingly disasterous year, and most of the current stability is a result of unsustainable government stimulus, general optimism will keep many markets looking stable through the end of this year.
One thing I have learned watching the housing market over the last few years is that it doesn’t turn on a dime. The stock market is like a motorcycle. Housing markets are like oceanliners. For the market to suddenly turn in 4 months is very unlikely. Whatever you think will happen in 6 months will probably happen in about 18.
Even if mass foreclosures hit every month for the next 4 months, are any of those houses going to even hit the MLS by Dec 1? No way. Not with the speed at which these banks move.
I suspect there will be enough buyers out there to keep sales moving smoothly, but more importantly, very few people are going to feel the pressure to sell until after Christmas bills hit. Unemployment figures suggest that more poeple will feel the pressure to sell, but that pressure has been there for months yet inventories have been coming down for some time. Not sure what will change in the next 4 months to put renewed pressure on sellers that isn’t there now.
Looks like Dec. 1 is the seasonal low for inventory as well so that suggests a low number.
To me, all this adds up to pretty low inventory on Dec. 1. I think the next housing disaster will hit in the Fall of 2010 when 1) Carmel Valley SFRs finally stop pretending there is no price collapse coming, and 2) rents start to drop, voiding any calculations done in 2009 that made low-end investment property appear profitable.
But things will be fine until Dec.
Jim – you make a good realtor, but a crappy engineer. How about a legend for that 2nd graph ?
12,420 – Banks can’t handle the flood. Downsizing in all companies has happened across the board to try to gain a profit including banks.
Including an email address
“12,345.Bonus prize. If I win, Jim has to go to the game.” (Rob Dawg)
My guess? 13,299. And if I win, since I don’t live in San Diego or have any interest in football, I’m giving mine to Rob Dawg. Why? Can’t wait to hear the stories on bubbleinfo of JtR and Dawg AT the game… (Purely selfish on my part.)
1) Fannie Mae loans will still be available
2) Stimulus money will inject some money
3) Some people will ‘feel rich’ with the Dow over 9,000
4) Most people still dont understand that it may be easier to walk away
5) Lots of people in SD made money off real estate; once you start, it’s hard to stop
1) Banks are drawing a harder line on mods
2) There is a lot of meat left to grind into sausage (foreclosure pipeline)
3) Double dip recession starts when clunkers ends
The foreclosure tsunami or leaky faucet or whatever it is this week will be stopped up by some bogus measures and the banks and developers will hold some properties off the market. This will cause supply to continue to contract and continue the frenzy.
In reality, the reason for this was that there aren’t many guesses on the low end.
Alternatively click on the link:
Blue – 25th precentile
Green – Median
Yellow – 75th percentile
There will be a moratorium by Nov 1 because a) banks will be happy to oblige, and finish the year without recognizing more losses, and more importantly, b) the white house administration won’t want to kick people out of “their” homes during the holidays. However, the appetite for foreclosures will remain high and such properties listed before Nov 1, will have sold by Dec 1.
Inventory creeping up the next 100 days. Doubt we will see a race to the exits by any REO holders. Instead, keep the inventory low and hope prices don’t slide as a result. Manipulate price through inventory control.
15999 – market falls in the fall and people become nervous mixed with seasonality factors and too many high end homes that can’t sell.
Banks are naturally anal retentive. There won’t be as many homes available on the market as originally hoped. And the existing sellers will get greedy in the process.
Since I don’t live in the area, please give the tickets to a local Boys & Girls Club who can then pass them along to some well deserving kids.
Inventory has been dropping steadily, seasonal variations seem to have been smoothed out over the past 2 years, probably will continue. I don’t believe the tsunami will ever appear but there will be a steady supply of new REO’s. It’s not an exciting time to sell right now let alone during the holidays. Essentially flat with a slight decrease.
“12,345.Bonus prize. If I win, Jim has to go to the game.” (Rob Dawg)
My guess? 13,299. And if I win, since I don’t live in San Diego or have any interest in football, I’m giving mine to Rob Dawg. Why? Can’t wait to hear the stories on bubbleinfo of JtR and Dawg AT the game… (Purely selfish on my part.) – Susie
The last time JtR and I were in the same place at the same time the police were called in. Honest. The scary part would be IF I won and went to a Chargers playoff game I’d be obligated to support the Patriots lest my ancestors damn my soul to perdition.
Explanation: Inventory will drop further by 12/1/09 due mainly to seasonality factors. I don’t think banks will let larger chunks of inventory go until Spring buying season 2010, and by then more homeowners will be panicking as a result of the upcoming MASSIVE Alt-A resets. These should combine to create an inventory surge by April/May 2010.
My guess??? 17,004
I say 17855
By the time Dec rolls around we’ll have had a major downdraft in the stock market, the dollar will have fallen off the cliff, unemployment (real number with those falling off the unemployment bene rolls included) higher and some of that shadow inventory starts to creep into the market.
“The last time JtR and I were in the same place at the same time the police were called in. Honest.” (Rob Dawg)
Exactly, Dawg! *Chuckle* Told ya I was selfish…
momentum is up for sales, pent up demand, to keep inventory low, countered by REO’s to boost.
My guess: 8,457
Because the banks will not foreclose fast enough to keep up with demand.
13666 – All unlucky numbers strikes disaster to the SD MLS. Id take the Bolts against the Skins on the 3rd of January. Id wear my LT jersey with my Eagles Beanie hat and my Wife could wear her LT jersey and her pink Eagles Beanie.
I was considering getting a Dawkins Jersey and cutting both that and LT in half and mending them together since they were both #21. Tomlinkins or Dawklinson. 🙂
Whoops – not same number but Dawkins is 20 so was going to use Dawklinson 21 🙂
Are contingent listings included in actives for purposes of the contest?
You talking about an international incident here.
Dawg is so high up the list that he already has black helicopters buzzing his house, scaring the cats, and at that last Padres game where I was protesting Manny-roid, somehow all the security guards knew me by name. One of them said, “You’re just a felony waiting to happen”.
The chances of the Chargers facing the Pats in the playoffs is excellent, it happens almost every year now.
If they knew that there’s a chance of Dawg and me attending the game together, the league would do something during the season to screw the Chargers again (Ed Hoculi-like), rather than spend millions on overtime for S.W.A.T.
My theory is that real sellers will decrease as prices fall, but short sales will increase, so actives without contingent status: 9200. If contingent listings are included in actives, 13,200.
This is mostly a wild @%$ guess.
Like all “professional” economic forecasters, I used only the relevant data and proven historical relationships. This relationship is known as the “ticket listing ratio”.
That is the ratio of the number of listings to free ticket date is a constant.
Current listings “11457” / Padre ticket date “8229”
December listings / Chargers ticket date “12209”
And that is my story and I’m sticking to it!
Lawrence Yun says we will enter a healthy market this fall which means a 3-4 month supply. Lawrence and the NAR would not lie to us , would they?
Nice round number, no scientific or mathematical wizardry used what so ever! Lets just call it 1000 12 packs!
There isn’t much for sale now and don’t see much on the horizon. This supposed tsunami that is going to hit is looking more and more like an ankle slapper.
I can’t even venture an educated guess. There are too many nonsensical (to ordinary, non-accounting logic) variables screwing with the market. However, given the end of the peak selling season and the winding down of moratoriums, it seems like inventory will only go up from here. How far is the question.
Report: Record Number of California Foreclosures Scheduled For Sale
“Foreclosures scheduled for sale rose to 124,874, a 10.4 percent increase from the prior month, and a 93.3 percent increase year-over-year from July 2008. The year-over-year increase is significant given that foreclosure sales in July 2008 set a record that has not again been reached. The increase appears to be primarily due to the fact that lenders are willingly postponing foreclosure sales.”
“The average California foreclosure has a total loan balance of $425,134 on a home that is now worth $236,739.”
21,000 — Homeowners, en masse, pursue the option of selling as a response to a growing and credible concern that the mortgage interest deduction loophole will be closed.
18,000 – if I win, the tickets go to Rob Dawg & JTR. I’m no football fan, but I expect a full report.
“Susie, You talking about an international incident here…” (JtR– Comment #60 for full quote)
Really, Jim? *Chuckle* In that case, I’m gonna have my daughter and son also guess. Um, is my cat able to guess too? I haven’t actually read all the small print re: the legality of WHO can guess in your latest contest…
I think it’s going to be lower but all the good numbers are too tightly grouped. =)
If I win, the ticket will go to charity since chargers will not be playing “my” niners.
Explanation: I fit your birthday and your age in there, Jim. 😉
Wishful thinking…I want to buy this winter and I hope the govt stops the manipulation the flood gates open.
21,342 largely due to macroeconomics:
1. Health care reform will effectively die under the withering assault of “Swift Death Retirees for Truth” (TM) and perennial Democratic spinelessness. This will increase worry that an acute illnes (ahem…swine flu…ahem) will leave one’s family destitute, further eroding consumer confidence, driving down spending and home sales.
2. Card check will die due to the same political spinelessness listed above. This will further erode worker confidence in job security, driving down spending and home sales.
3. No renewal of home purchase incentives will occur (they will be successfully labeled “too expensive” by conserva-bots). Confidence erosion…yada yada yada.
4. St. Louis will kick the cr*p out of the Padres (which I plan to celebrate). This will have a calming effect, as at least some things will be seen as predictable. This drives residual listings down from 24K the above factors created, leaving 21,000 on the market.
5. 342 buyers will get lost trying to get to the I-5 from the Petco parking lots and miss their closings.
Slower demand this fall. Lenders will get tired of all the free renters.
Stagnation seems to be the spirit of this age. I have nightmares of waking up in 5 years and everything being exactly the same.
My problem with the inventory numbers is this new game of “Contingent”, which is short sales being removed from the inventory waiting for a Short-Sale approval. The inventory appears low only because you have taken a HUGE amount of houses and hiden them until the short sale falls thru and appears as active again. My guess is
The view from Atlanta (from today’s AJC):
“To say the market has been sluggish would be an understatement. The main problem is sheer volume – a staggering 150,000 vacant housing lots across metro Atlanta are available, more than a decade’s supply at current absorption rates.
The median sale price for empty lots has plunged from $57,000 at the height of the housing boom in 2007 to $30,000 this year, according to Smart Numbers, a Marietta company that tracks the local real estate market.
“It’s going to keep going down, because we have too many lots, and there’s not enough demand,” said Steve Palm, the firm’s president.”
Because the river of REO’s will not sell in the fall, but will also not turn into a flood until spring.
Is this like The Price is Right where the winner is the one closest “without going over”?
If so, My guess is 1.
>>>> 1325 <<<< Beacuse that is where my dart landed.
Correction…. >>> 13,125 <<<
This is the result of multiplying the Euler-Mascheroni constant e by 4999 and rounding to the nearest whole.
Ooops, that should be 13,589. Stupid typo.
There will be a brief upsurge accompanied by several articles in the media wondering if the worst is over. This will be followed by another decline and subsequent improvement with repeated cycles until we reach a nadir that is similar to that seen in all past cycles. This will take approximately 5 years peak-to-trough as it always does.
8,100, for the same reasons sdduuuude outlined above (so he wins for the explanation portion). 😉
IMHO, we will probably see quite the bull run in both the housing and stock markets until Q3 of 2010. Too much money being pumped specifically into housing and mortgages — with the Fed buying over a trillion dollars worth of mortgages.
For those who didn’t hear already, here is a snippet from the FOMC meeting today:
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities.
I would have to agree with Mozart and Sue. I don’t see a foreclosure flood; rather a continued trickle. The real estate market does behave in a cycle and we are now seeing a reduction of inventory. As we go into the fall and winter the market tends to slow so I think the numbers will be somewhat lower than they are now.
16,666. Explanation: On October 31st, the Government will announce a large new program to allow taxpayers with good to moderate credit to trade in their clunker homes for newer homes with views, or purchase existing view foreclosed and/or empty units, and keep their existing payment loan structures with a rebate.
This program will have a “12 step” provision, which will allow addicted to credit defaulters, who over-borrowed and made poor choices, to accept a higher credit power, and enable them to pick-up the leftover clunkers from said good credit people, as well as additional cash out to fix up an empty clunker, or buy new cars, clothes, furniture and vacations.
The renters provision will allow renters to buy from banks existing foreclosure and empty units as first time buyers at 1/2 the existing value. The government will protect the bank assets with guaranteed solvency loans.
Can I still enter? 7,654