More new product in the Carmel Valley, 92130 market:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Jim,
regarding CV market,are you familiar with the Stratford community(92130) and what’s your take, say, compared to the newer homes on your vid ? (location is better, as it’s fringe Fairbanks Ranch,though older and smaller, but single levels, gated, some with great views, no power lines, etc.).
Been watching a few Stratford listings,some aggressive price cuts and one recent sale barely broke under $300 psf.( A number of 2006/07 sales in the $500 plus psf range).
Regarding Fido and the fake lawn, I hear it’s great if you like the smell of stale dog pee on hot summer days.
When I saw the size of the yard on the first model I was actually encouraged. Then, of course, I got a headache just looking at those power lines. Never fails!
How’s the Pardee quality?
The payment on 800K is what, $4500/month?
That is $54,000/year before taxes, but you also have $8000/yr prop tax.
Dual income at 75K per gets you a mortgage of 1/3 total income before taxes. Doable, but the wife can’t stop working!!!
That does not include any money down, which would improve the numbers for the buyer…
I guess some dads (or moms) may make 125-150K on their own as well.
Again, I am very curious as to the ethnic make-up of these buyers. Is there really an Asian influx as some have suggested in other comments?
I would like to know to gauge the sustainability of these prices. They seem high for what you are getting.
A real scary graph of http://www.drhousingbubble.com
Alt-A loans that are delinquent.
30 days late – Jan. 2008 – 9%
July 2009 – 29%
90 days late – Jan. 2008 – 5%
July 2009 – 22%
He said 80% of the option arm were low document loans that qualify for Alt-A loans.
About 75,000 loans in San Diego county.
Watch out Carmel Valley in the next few years. Your income will not cover the doubling of your recast.
Should be http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com
Is there hope that eventually the power lines will be buried? I can’t imagine living with that eyesore.
I’m still amazed that houses are selling for what I consider very high prices – Jim you still talk like ho-hum these are in the 800’s, and apparently they are still selling but the big question is can the buyers really afford them?
Being in my 50’s I always think of the ball-and-chain called property taxes – when are builders going to build quality small houses to finish up raising the family and retire in? You’d think with all the baby boomers that this would have caught on.
LR, I have no special knowledge, but I think it’s realistic to expect new power line projects might be buried. I don’t expect them to ever take existing power lines like those and put them underground, unless legally ordered to or to avoid lawsuits.
The Alt A should be interesting. Just when things are slowing down. Some neighbors all went to Palm Springs this weekend. One quit paying on their $800,000 mortgage so they could get the loan mod and succeed. Another 8 were getting their resets and most were worried they would have to walk. Of course this discusion was in the middle of a trip that they were spending hundreds of dollars on. One just bought with an FHA and the other 2 were renting. It is really interesting that no one REALLY can afford these home prices and yet the American Dream still some how goes on and on and on.
The worst thing that could ever happen is the power lines being buried. you think the land would then be left open space? Sucker.
Sorry propertysearch, I have a hard time believing that you were in Palm Springs with more than 9 neighbors who ALL “happened” to be in trouble. Smells of bear-like propaganda to me.
CV bores me. The location, homes, lots, demographic, the power line discussion. It’s freaking boring. All of it.
Also, the ‘who can afford these’ discussion is boring, too. There are plenty of people who make more than 75 a year, even 150 a year, even 200 a year, and many wives who want to work, and even some who make more than their husbands (gasp!). Let’s move on from that discussion!
And one correction, you need 20% down right now. So your loan is not $800 it’s more like $650…$3800/mo. in the high 5%, with a ton of that deductible in the first number of years on the loan (about $36,000 worth in the first year). So about $2800 a month net per month on a new house. My rent on a 1990 built 3 bedroom in Carlsbad was $2700/month. And it was a miserable living experience. With schools not as good (as CV). And a 15 minute drive to the nearest freeway.
I realize HOA and p tax eat into that, but you can either pay $8k a year in property tax or pay $10k a year on private school. And again, the p tax is deductible.
The HOA I have no defense for. A total waste of $.
Signed,
I do not live in CV, I’m just sayin’
daveg,
The 2008 income estimates for the San Diego region show:
40,379 households with incomes of $150k-$200k
38,900 households with incomes over $200k
In addition, there were 42,555 households with incomes of $125k-$150k who might be able to make a larger down payment and take on a mortgage on a house with that price tag. I know median incomes have gone down in the past year, but there are still going to be a lot of people who can afford those payments.
I can’t give you a direct link to the data since I downloaded it to Excel from SANDAG’s Data Warehouse. However, if you want to check out the data on your own you can start at:
http://datawarehouse.sandag.org/
I don’t get it. My friend rents an 4,000 sq.ft. ocean view house in Carlsbad for $4K/month. Who would pick buying one of these (out the door, you’re looking at WAY over $4K/mo) over renting a bigger house in a nicer neighborhood?
Yet, they still sell…to someone. I’d say wait for the blood on the streets in a few years.
-Erica
Having no car payments free up approx 1K a month. What kind of cars are parked in the driveway in CV – oops never mind. Are these people even saving for a rainy year let alone retirement? I’d hate to think what the landscape will look like 20 years in the future.
Jim, the lots you filmed are not the latest release. You should have gone around the corner (Timber Brook Lane) and check out lot #21, the power line is exactly over the back yard. I believe they dropped the price from mid 850K to 818K for a plan #3 on the lot. I guess lower price comes with free extra power to lower the electrical bills.
I don’t get it. My friend rents an 4,000 sq.ft. ocean view house in Carlsbad for $4K/month. Who would pick buying one of these
Location, commute, school district, etc.
Read BAM’s post, and the previous entries by Jim – people are throwing large down payments.
You can also find some pretty amazing ocean view units extremely cheap in Rosarito/etc if you don’t mind… the location, commute, schools, etc.
Is there hope that eventually the power lines will be buried? I can’t imagine living with that eyesore.
Nope.. voltage is too high. It looks like you have two voltages running on the steel tower and one voltage on the wooden tower. There are three phases(120 degrees between phase). Generally there is between 12k volt to 20kvolt per insulator ring(depending upon the safety factor the power company is running with). What the ceramic rings are trying to achieve is an air-gap with the neighboring structure, and the voltage is dependent upon the dielectric strength of air (which varies dependent upon the weather).
Looking at the ‘rings’ on the towers, it looks like the steel tower has two voltages. One side has 6 insulator rings holding the wire, the other has two strands of 16 insulator rings holding it in place (two strands to prevent the wire from swinging in the wind). Using 15kv, this means the steel tower is carrying around 90,000volts on the small insulator strand and 240,000volts on the large insulator strand. The wood tower is carrying about 165,000volts.
The reason why they usually don’t underground these is because the insulator requirements for those voltages. The wiring in a house has insulation rated for a breakdown voltage of about 600v, but are rated to carry about 120v. A problem with PVC/teflon insulation is that when an arc goes through it.. thats all she wrote, it will no longer handle the peak breakdown voltage (the short will create a pinhole or worse through the insulation). Air gap insulation ‘heals’ after an arc, and is shortly able to handle peak breakdown voltage (air currents replace the ionized air). If an underground cable arcs, it now has to be pulled out and replaced. The second problem is the thickness of the insulation required to handle these voltages. Using the thickness of house wiring as a baseline, which is between 1mm to 1.5mm thick (using the lower numbers for the estimates), results in:
90,000volt -> 750mm(2.95 inches) thick(adding nearly 6 inches to diameter to wire)
165,000volt -> 1375mm(5.41 inches) thick(adding nearly 11 inches to diameter of wire)
240,000volt -> 2000mm(7.87 inches) thick(adding nearly 16 inches to diameter of wire)
Thanks ucodegen.
Erica, Tell your friend to make sure not to be late on any rent payments. $4K for a 4000 sq ft pad in Carlsbad with an ocean view is under market value by a grand.
Sdnerd – Rosarito comment is hilarious.
Erica,
Tell your friend to make sure the owner is making the mortgage and prop tax payments. Also tell your friend to tell you the truth about how much he/she pays in rent.
MB Mike-
I wasn’t actually with them. The crowd is a little too desperate housewives for me. I heard the post party gossip on my walk home from school. I do know most of them personally. I am in the process of buying in the next 3 months. It shocked me as well. I thought most of the pain train had passed through our area. I would no longer call myself a Bear, maybe a confused practically dead sitting Bull.
6 of them live in a cul de sac and bought $800,000-$1,000,000 homes with ocean views that will be re setting. They are now worth $670,000-$750,000. One family is unemployed and there is ONE family that can afford the reset payment. People just don’t know what to do?
3 are in close by neighborhoods.
This is only a SMALL part of what I hear on a daily basis. I could go on and on. I don’t know why people tell me these things. They sure put on a good front. It certainly does not give me confidence and a little scary to hear when you are in the market to purchase!
This area is my turf (renting). I run the canyon daily…it is awesome. However, I turn my Ipod off when coming out of the canyon and going under the power lines….those things are scary!
You forgot to mention the flight path of the birds out of Miramar. Lately they have been setting off car alarms cuz they fly so low.
The CV “new car” smell is slowly wearing off.
BAM, That was really funny. Thanks
Propertysearch, Wow….I apologize.
Cool video on maintaining electrical power lines.. by helicopter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tzga6qAaBA&fmt=18
One thing the guy says: There are only 3 things I have been afraid of; electricity, heights and women. And I’m married too..
See the video to understand.
By the way, that wand he is using is actually a resistor. That is to allow bringing the potential of the helicopter and wire worker to the power line’s potential gradually and under control.
Dave and Potemkin,
I plugged this into my handy-dandy calculator(tm) and found the following:
With 20% down (160K down payment), your True Monthly Cost ™ would be $4255, which is a Cash-out-of-pocket after taxes and investment potential at 33% marginal rate and 8% investment returns. Your PITI is $4,840. at prevailing jumbo rates of 6.25%
With 10% down and same assumptions as above, assuming excellent credit for calculation of PMI, your PITI is $5688, and a True Monthly Cost ™ is 4,465.
The True Monthly Cost is comparable to rent not considering future value.
In my opinion, these are still overvalued by at least 10-35% for owner-occupied given current interest rates, investment climate, and potential for future appreciation. Just my $.02.
Chuck Ponzi
No worries MB Mike. I actually have driven the neighborhoods with JTR to check out what was coming through the foreclosure pipeline. I hope he reports on it at some point. I would love to hear what he thought compared to other areas.
For me, it was a little shocking and depressing. And then add in the above “stable” home owners. It doesn’t look too pretty. I guess they say things get pretty confusing when markets bottom.
Chuck,
I wasn’t arguing the merits of paying those prices for those properties. I’ve just seen a lot of discussion here that expresses doubt that anyone has the money for higher priced homes. I thought some actual data would be helpful.
To extend on my comment yesterday…
Why have effectively NO YARD when one of the major attractions of San Diego is the nice weather! You can’t even open a window without having your neighbor staring right in. I just don’t get it.
Thank you, Chuck, for bringing in some numbers and a dose of reality. $4,200 including the tax break is a spicy meatball. I guess that’s about $75k pretax annual income just to pay for a house. Add on bills, food, and benefits and you’re looking at $100k+ just to wake up and go to work (not to mention car payments, gas, eating out, trips to Palm Springs, etc.)
And don’t worry about saving for a rainy day or retirement. That’s for suckers.
“Even Derby Hills…they weren’t Davidson quality.”
(JtR)
Jim, can you do a video of a Davidson product? FWIW, I’d be interested.(My late husband was the best finish carpenter on the planet.)
*Embarrassed Face* Oops, have you already done one, and I didn’t see it? I’ve only been a bubbleinfo addict since the LA Times article last Spring.
“I don’t know if Fido would take to the plastic grass too well. That’s why I think astro turf won’t catch on with dog owners.” (JtR)
Not only dog owners, Jim! Speaking as a cat owner, that fake grass would be an immediate deal breaker for me too. My kitty loves to chomp on grass as she slinks around waiting to pounce on lizards, bugs and any other critters smaller than herself.
“A pink room! (JtR)
*Chuckle* Another JtR classic! I’ve gone to countless Open Houses and yep, pink rooms have popped up by the 2nd bedroom numerous times.
Why don’t more sellers realize that pink rooms probably won’t make an appearance on a wanna-be homebuyer’s “Top Five Feature” list? Just my two cents…
Speaking of pink…
I was renting a 2bdr condo in Carmel Valley (just moved out because the owner was under water and she sold) and guess what? Yep, the 2nd bedroom was pink. Its attached bathroom area had transparent pink hardware on all the drawers. Blah…
We were at Cole’s carpets a few months back to replace our upstairs carpet and this elderly lady came in and was looking over the samples of — you guessed it — PINK carpet. And you thought it was all leftovers from the disco era!
I hear JtR does a mean hustle.
Carmel Valley median income is 123K. Average income is 210K. Don’t know if that has anything to do w/ affordability index there.
http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/California/San-Diego-County/Del-Mar/Carmel-Valley-Demographics.aspx
I rent in CB 92011 near Poinsettia/Aviara exit. We pay 3K/mo for a 2300 sqft house. Zero ocean view, near rail road track. No yard. Neighbors constantly in your front yard (which is virtually non-existent). This is actually cheap rent. Friends pay 3500 to rent a 2500 sqft house in another neighborhood (same zip) with a slightly bigger yard. We could rent a bigger house for the same amount of $$ in Vista but we are here for the school (Pacific Rim elementary – check out their API score), the neighborhood, the beach close location. There aren’t many houses for rent here and the decently priced ones got snatched up very quickly.
We are looking to buy (have been doing so for the last 4 years) and haven’t found any decent house. F/C or short-sales came and went quickly, sometimes within a week. There is nothing good under 600K.
Price has gone down, but it’s taking much longer than we thought. I was looking at a foreclosed house for around 800K in 2007 but didn’t buy because I thought price will go down quickly. In 2008 same model match was sold for 860 (short-sale). Current zillow estimate for both : 950+. I figured I have blown at least 200K in the last 4 years on rent & tax. Interestingly, I met the owner of one of the above house and she said they put down like 35-40% on the house, and refi recently for like 4.7%. The down payment is roll-over profit from the previous home (they move in from another area ). So I figure this is how people can afford these houses.
The longer this stretching out, the more frustrated renters like us would get. I have couple friends who already bought (could not get into this zip so they had to buy in SEJ where value has gone down more). They are planning to send their kids to p/v school so they aren’t saving anything, plus they have to deal with the SEJ heat. 😀
Values has gone down 50% everywhere, except in the places where I want to live 🙂