What’s Hot

We noted how there aren’t many of the newer one-story houses for sale.

When they do hit the open market, they tend to blow out – three of the last four sales of this 2,100sf plan in Santa Fe Trails in Carlsbad have sold over list price.  The previous high sale of this model was $1,100,000 in 2018, so they listed this one on the range $1,125,000 – $1,150,000, figuring they could get a little more:

https://www.compass.com/listing/3412-camino-largo-carlsbad-ca-92009/441432253076395113/

Four days later they opened escrow for $1,225,000 cash, and closed three weeks later!

State Street Commons

The Carlsbad Village Antique Mall was 14,630sf on a 7/10-acre lot.  The new owners paid $7,525,000 in August, 2019 (the sellers had paid $1,450,000 in 1999) and plan to increase the square footage by 44%.  Hopefully there will be plenty of on-site parking!

2742-52 STATE STREET. CARLSBAD, CA.

State Street Commons is an adaptive reuse and major renovation of the antique mall in the heart of Carlsbad Village. The project will pay tribute to the architectural character of the two butler frame buildings and quonset hut. The project consists of approximately 21,000 sf on a 30,350 sf parcel a couple blocks from the Pacific Ocean and directly across from the transit station. The vibrant mixed use project will house top tier retail and office tenants.

https://www.fabricinvestments.com/state-street-commons

Job-Market Rankings

Maybe more people would move if they knew the best job markets?  From the wsj.com:

The two hottest U.S. job markets in 2019 were growing Southern state capitals with vibrant music scenes and an influx of technology jobs.

Austin, Texas, topped the list for the second consecutive year, according to a Wall Street Journal ranking of new data collected by Moody’s Analytics. Nashville, Tenn., jumped to the No. 2 spot from seventh. Both cities anchor metropolitan areas of around two million people.  The Journal worked with Moody’s Analytics to assess the labor market in 381 metro areas. Each region was ranked on five metrics: the unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, job growth, labor-force growth and wage growth.

Austin—a tech hub and college town—remains attractive to workers thanks to low unemployment and high wage growth. Nashville has low unemployment and high labor-force growth.

Apple Inc. is among companies bringing jobs to Austin. In 2019, it started construction of a $1 billion corporate campus with a capacity for up to 15,000 employees. It already has 7,000 workers in Austin.  Amazon is building a campus in downtown Nashville with the goal of hiring 5,000 people, adding to the city’s growth spurt in recent years.

Denver moved up in the ranks to third place from ninth. Seattle and San Francisco also moved up to round out the top five large metropolitan areas.

Among smaller metropolitan areas, Boulder, Colo., beat out Midland, Texas, for the top of the list. Two other Colorado areas—Greeley and Fort Collins—made the top 10.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec.


San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.26
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.37
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.68
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%

The 4.7% increase year-over-year only looks that impressive because of the 6-month decline we experienced at the end of 2018.  The index has been flat since July.

Inventory Watch

The number of listings that are coming on the market is about the same as last year (589 vs 598).

Month
Weekly Number of Listings, 2019
Weekly Number of Listings, 2020
January
92
56
81
76
77
71
87
62
February
92
75
83
97
84
82
72
70
March
113
122
100
95

We should see a noticeable pickup in March – here we go!

(more…)

Carlsbad Calavera

Here’s is a good example of how fuzzy the pricing can get in any one era.

This house was on the market for a couple of months before it sold, and the week it went pending, there was a second house nearby that had tried to sell for all on 2019 with no luck. They cancelled right before Christmas while listed for $940,000, and then came back on for the same price on January 21st and sold the first day for $950,000.

This had been listed for $964,000, and closed for $935,000:

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