But as more players jump into the space and markets are saturated with various competing platforms, profit margins that are already paper thin get squeezed even more. Zillow says it’s making $1,723 per home flip at a minuscule 0.6 percent profit, which leads one to wonder if this space is really worth getting into if you don’t have multiple modes of monetization.
That’s where the concept of a one-stop shop for home buying and selling becomes especially attractive. If one company can seamlessly integrate each individual component of the real estate transaction—buying, renovating, insuring, and selling—and optimize operational efficiencies along the way, there’s a path to becoming the truly dominant real estate company.
Being the one-stop shop has been the goal of most large real estate operations, where the owners can make profits on every related service – escrow, title, loans, etc. It’s why these outside companies all jumped in to the ibuyer space – the cumulative profits look very enticing, and making as little as $1,723 per home flip doesn’t look bad as long as they get the other fee income too.
I think they will be able to dominate in the homogenized lower-priced tract neighborhoods where there isn’t much variance in values. They can make their own market too, because a first-time homebuyer won’t balk over paying a few extra thousand in price to get an easy entry into a renovated home. If great salespeople are employed, the ibuyers could make a killing.
It will also enable the ibuyers to dabble in the higher-priced areas, where losses can pile up quicker. No need to risk big money when there is no pressure on them to buy anything. I would expect their purchase quotes in the higher-end areas will be well under retail, to give them plenty of cushion.
How will sellers, buyers, and realtors react?
Sellers usually have a price in mind, and tend to be a little uncomfortable with interviewing several candidates/options. If ibuyers advertise effectively and get the first call, then all they have to do is get close to the seller’s price-in-mind, and convenience will be what decides it.
If a realtor gets the first call, and comes in with seller’s price-in-mind or higher, they will get the listing. Realtors will feel the need to quote higher-than-ever list prices.
Sellers who want quick money and convenience won’t worry about leaving a little money on the table, and take the ibuyer deal. Those sellers who want top dollar will list with a realtor.
With everything being high-priced, buyers will probably gravitate to the homes in top condition, and just pay what it takes. Hopefully we won’t run out of buyers.
Crafty agents might offer third-party reviews of the options. Sellers will already be getting biased opinions from ibuyers and realtors, and they could use a consultant to help sort out the best option. But sellers would have to be deliberate and analytical to resist winging it themselves.
The Big Question? With sellers having more equity than ever, will they mind leaving some on the table?
The successful ibuyers doing volume could smooth out any bumpy markets, because they will be determining the home values to suit their bottom line. If they can’t sell, they can always rent instead.
Home prices have been on a tear for ten years straight, and are at their highest levels ever.
Is this bubble going to pop too?
Let’s look at the statistics first. I took the most recent 45 days to get the latest scoop, plus the MLS prefers to calculate the smaller sample sizes.
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales, April 1 – May 15 (La Jolla to Carlsbad)
Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2012
640
415
$377/sf
$805,000
41
2013
788
464
$419/sf
$968,750
17
2014
791
376
$474/sf
$1,017,000
24
2015
785
448
$479/sf
$1,065,000
22
2016
774
439
$513/sf
$1,170,000
19
2017
726
445
$529/sf
$1,250,000
17
2018
749
394
$567/sf
$1,298,000
17
2019
712
379
$579/sf
$1,360,000
23
YoY Chg
-5%
-4%
+2%
+5%
+29%
It is remarkable that all-time-high prices aren’t causing more people to sell!
In previous markets, once prices started reaching new highs, homeowners would jump at the chance to move. The inventory would grow and cool things off, and/or we’d hit an economic downturn and foreclosure sales would direct the market. But not today!
Other Factors:
We are a mid-level luxury market. The more-expensive areas like Los Angeles, Orange County, and the Bay Area feed us downsizers who think we are giving it away.
Homebuying has de-coupled from jobs. We do have substantial employers like Qualcomm, bio-tech, etc. but not near enough to justify these lofty prices. How do we keep afloat? It’s the big down payments; either from previous home sales, successful business ventures, or the Bank of Mom & Dad.
They changed the rules. Banks have to give defaulters a chance to qualify for a loan modification before they can foreclose. With everyone enjoying their equity position, they will find a way to hang onto their house or sell it for a profit, instead of lose it.
Reverse mortgages are an alternative for those who need money. They might crank down the amount of money you can tap, but as long as homeowners are flush with equity, they will be able to get their hands on some of it via reverse mortgages or the typical equity line.
Buyers have been full of money, and willing to blow it. I’ve seen sales close for 10% to 25% above the comps this year, so it doesn’t seem like people are worried about a bubble. Those sales could be creating unsustainable comps, and be short-lived values, but will the next buyer question them enough?
Coming Soon vs. ibuyer. We need a gimmick to transition us to the ibuyer era, and the ‘Coming Soon’ off-market sales will be the sexy distraction. The price of an off-market sale isn’t necessarily lower than retail, and in some cases they can be higher when the buyers get jacked up about the opportunity.
The ibuyer era could be the last hurrah for open-market real estate. If the big-money corporate buyers can build enough credibility and begin to dominate the space, they will be able to dictate the prices paid for their flips, and control the marketplace. If so, they will make sure we won’t have another down market!
In the meantime, we might see prices start to bounce around, instead of the constant trend higher. But if it gets harder to sell, then many will just sit tight instead.
If you think a bubble pop will happen, ponder this question. Who is going to give away their home now?
We can probably say that affluent people are coming, and those who are priced out, or cashing out, are leaving. There were 31,354 houses and condos sold in San Diego County in the last 12 months, so those migrating are only part of our real estate market.
Millennials are leaving San Diego in the thousands, according to a new report by Brookings.
The new Census Bureau migration data reveal a post-recession shift in the migration of young adults and seniors.
From 2007 to 2012, San Diego lost more than 7,000 people between the ages of 25 to 34 annually. From 2012 to 2017, the number nearly doubled to more than 13,000.
The report points out that millennials have the tendency to move to “educated places” such as Denver and Seattle. Millennials also prefer more affordable areas such as Kansas City and Minneapolis.
While San Diego is losing young people, several Texas cities appear to be gaining a good chunk of millennials. Cities like Houston, Dallas, Austin, Denver and Seattle gained tens of thousands of people between the ages of 25 to 34 between 2012 and 2017.
As for those 55 and older, more than 18,000 migrated to Phoenix per year from 2012 to 2017. Cities like Tampa, Riverside and Jacksonville also saw their fair share of people ages 55 and older.
We had 132 new listings hit the MLS in the last week, which is the highest weekly total in over a year. Hopefully more listings will mean more sales!
Last year, it was during this time that the momentum picked up nicely, and the only time we had 400+ pendings in 2018. We also had the highest number of monthly closings for the year in June (299).
NSDCC Total Number of Pending Listings
Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362
3rd Week of May
369
357
4th Week of May
387
?
1st Week of June
410
?
2nd Week of June
401
?
3rd Week of June
376
?
4th Week of June
358
?
This is as good as it’s going to get in 2019 – it’s prime time!
Don’t realtors all look the same? Everybody does flashy photos and big spreads – what could be different?
It’s the attention to the fine details that makes the difference – and determines your fate on whether your sale will close smoothly. Here’s an example:
Thinking of moving? Contact me today to find out what I can do for you!
It looks easy, doesn’t it? With the internet, how hard can it be to buy or sell a home?
There are no shortage of options. Buyers see thousands of homes for sale, and sellers find thousands of agents happy to list a home for fees ranging from $100 to 6%.
Yet the perception remains that the process is stressful and costly. Why, when it looks so easy from the outside looking in?
Here are ten reasons why buyers and sellers should Get Good Help:
Friends and family – Buyers and sellers have friends and family who are happy to critique every move. Most of all, they remind sellers not to give it away, and possible deals get crushed regularly over 1% to 2%.
HGTV – Where consumers learn how the home-selling game works. The fact that HGTV is scripted entertainment doesn’t phase the viewer – the content seems plausible enough that it could be real, and the industry doesn’t provide anything better so by default HGTV has influence.
Inexperienced and unethical agents – Agent blunders can cost you a sale. But whether they were accidental (inexperienced) or on-purpose (unethical), they also cast a pall over the industry that causes participants to be frustrated and leery. You need to get good help to endure and triumph over these agents.
Escrow, title, and lenders – These folks have been over-worked since the beginning of time, and they make mistakes. Consumers need good help on their side just to minimize the impact.
Appraisals – A bottle of scotch doesn’t work any more – appraisers are independent and untouchable now, which means they can kill any deal. They are like baseball umpires – they can strike you out, even if the pitch was a ball, because it’s just their opinion.
Shoddy Repairs – Whether it’s to fix any historical work or corrections done to satisfy today’s repair requests, the house needs to be in decent shape to close escrow – or the sellers need to be willing to take a sizable discount. Having vendors who can quickly make impressive repairs for a reasonable fee is critical.
Packing and Moving – A great agent has ways to prevent your move from turning into an evacuation.
Gimmicks – This business has always been notorious for its deceitful gimmickry, and these days you need a supercharged BS-detector to get the truth.
Correctly Interpreting Market Conditions – Get the right answers to: Are we in a bubble? Should I wait? How much is this home really worth? Are there two birds in the bush?
Consumer Inexperience – This might be the biggest hurdle of all, and what causes buyers and sellers to rush a decision before doing enough investigation. Having proper guidance throughout the process is what relieves the stress and costly experiences you hear about!
Get Good Help – it’s never been so important. These are the highest home prices ever!
My general rule-of-thumb is that if two people send me the same article, then I should blog it.
Not only did two people send this in, but Henry Fung also mentioned to the article’s author on twitter that she should read my blog, and as a result, she followed me.
Now I really need to comment!
Here is Lydia’s article, which is more coverage of the latest lawsuit that intends to bust up the realtor cartel:
The lawsuit alleges collusion between brokerages to make sellers pay 2.5% or more to the buyer’s agent.
The National Association of Realtors shrugged it off, and by the time the case gets to court, the current way we sell houses could be long gone anyway.
But let’s discuss being paid by commission.
The reason commissions are high is because of the home-selling process, and the amount of work involved just to have a shot of earning an actual paycheck.
Though I have a written listing contract with every seller, I can’t force you to sell your house.
I don’t do buyer-broker contracts with buyers, but if I did, you still don’t have to buy a house.
Whether I have a contract or not, there is no assurance that I will ever get paid, regardless of how much time I invest, and though I have a commission agreement with a seller, I have no control of the outcome – only the sellers decide if they can live with the resulting offers.
If an agent does get paid, it’s at the end – there’s no pay received along the way. Plus, the commission gets treated like a slush fund with many people trying to nibble away at it throughout the process. Then the brokerage and other parties take their cut, and the agent gets what’s left.
Given those conditions, shouldn’t there be a bonus, or reward attached?
Would you work for your current pay today if you knew you might not get paid anything? Or would you expect an additional bonus to live with that risk?
Just because buyers look at houses online doesn’t change the problem with being paid on commission. We’ve had these same issues before and after the internet.
Should we devise new pay structures for realtors?
The problem with a pay-as-you-go system is that you don’t know how long it could take. Consumers (both buyers and sellers) aren’t really sure what to expect in the beginning, and aren’t going to start writing checks unless, and until they get a good feeling that it would pay off. Flat-fee and salaried companies only provide transaction-processing services – which is only a small part of what I do.
There are two solutions:
A. Burn the business to the ground. This is the path we’re on, and the one-percenters will impose the systems they decide are good for you. They will also offer you their houses at prices they tell you are fair.
B. We convert to a free-market auction system.
The reason agents deserve big commissions is because of the all-encompassing nature of the service we provide. I handle every one of your real estate wants and needs all day, every day. I have skillfully navigate every possible issue/event that happens, because any one thing can kill the sale – and then you don’t get what you want, and I don’t get paid.
If the business was more predictable, less time-intensive, and had guaranteed pay, would I work for less? Absolutely, and the auction solution is the best answer.
It would take a major player like Google or Amazon to bring enough brand and reputation so consumers would consider the auction format. But if that were to happen, here are the benefits for everyone involved:
The selling process becomes structured – everyone knows how and when a house will sell. Post the auction date 30 days in advance so buyers can inspect the property – because the house is sold as-is, no repairs. On auction day, conduct the bidding out in the open where all have a fair shot at buying.
A real auction removes the agent shenanigans – no tilting the table in favor of anyone.
Sellers get a little more than retail value, and know the close date in advance.
Buyers know exactly what to expect, and have a fair shot of buying any home.
A streamlined, predictable process means less work for agents.
The hardest part? Convincing sellers that there aren’t two in the bush who will pay more.
P.S. If the current business does crash and burn, I’m thinking of being an artist:
Rob Dawg’s neighborhood! Hat tip to Eddie89 for sending this in:
Surf, sun and year-round moderate temperatures can sometimes come at a cost.
With a reputation as one of the most expensive states in the U.S., California (thankfully) still has some economically sound places to reside – if you know where to look.
Just to be clear: We didn’t just create this list based solely on the cheapest places to live. The cost of living was part of our methodology, but so was the quality of life, as well as the key components of transportation, housing, food and utilities.
Here are the 5 most affordable cities in California:
Oxnard
Ventura
Simi Valley
Vacaville
Camarillo
1. Oxnard
About an hour north of Los Angeles, Oxnard offers beachfront living at an affordable price.
The median household income here is $62,349 with median home value settling at $332,600, which is actually a great deal for California real estate.
Golf, winery visits and strolls on Mandalay Beach are all part of living in Oxnard.
With fertile agricultural land surrounding the city, many crops grow in the region. But Oxnard is most famous for its strawberries, with the popular California Strawberry Festival held here each year.
The city has the nickname of the “Gateway to the Channel Islands,” a nearby national park and marine sanctuary.
The legendary Johnny Marr is playing the House of Blues in San Diego on Monday, May 20th!
His solo career never matched the success he had with the Smiths, where they had four of their albums listed on Rolling Stone’s Greatest 500 Albums of All-Time.
Will the Smiths ever get back together?
In 2006, Morrissey declared, “I would rather eat my own testicles than reform the Smiths, and that’s saying something for a vegetarian.”
Thanks to reader Just Some Guy for sending in this article from last week – and who wondered why more people don’t live here and commute to the Bay Area?
Buyers like off-market listings because it lessens the competition. All agents have to do is convince sellers.
After five-plus years of aggressively putting money away in savings, Jason Baker and his wife recently accomplished the seemingly impossible and purchased a four-bedroom house in a high-performing school district in the Bay Area.
The process to find a home base for their growing family took three months. They considered both the East Bay and North Bay and quickly learned the competition is tough in communities with desirable schools such as Lafayette and Mill Valley.
The couple made offers on four houses that they didn’t get, before finally uncovering an unlisted home in Marin County and making an offer that was accepted.
“The three months when we were looking was the most stressful time of our life,” said Baker, 38, who works as an engineering manager. “It was more stressful than the wedding, more stressful than the first month at home with a newborn.”
Open houses at properties that were affordable by the Bay Area’s crazy standards were mob scenes.
“When you went to a house and there was a crowd, you just set your expectations to know you’re not going to get the house,” Baker said. “When there were a lot of people, you knew the odds were high someone is going to make a really high offer.”
Through this ordeal, Baker got an inside look at the buyer’s side of the Bay Area’s real estate market and below he shares what he learned.
1. Listing prices are just “marketing” prices. In a region where homes frequently sell for well over asking and agents often list homes with low prices to encourage bidding wars, you can’t trust that a listing price reflects a home’s value. Buyers can find the true value of a home by looking at recent comps, said Baker. “Redfin and Zillow do an OK job of estimating these,” he says. “One of the problems is there is so little turnover in good school districts that there may only be two or three comps in the last one or two years.”
2. Money wins over everything. Love letters to the sellers are nice, but moot within the Bay Area’s market of high price points. “Unless your bid is significantly higher than the second place bid (more than $50,000), expect the seller to ask you to go into a bidding war,” he shared.
3. Forget about contingencies. “We lost a bid on a house that had no inspection report in its disclosures packet, very rare for the Bay Area,” said Baker. “The seller was not willing to accept any offers with an inspection contingency, and there was water in the basement.”
4. All-cash offers win. If you want the slight edge of all-cash, and you don’t have it, Baker suggested a service called Flyhomes that makes all-cash offers on your behalf. “They buy the house, then sell it to you immediately after closing with a traditional mortgage,” he said. “Ultimately we did not end up buying with them, because they don’t have knowledge of Marin like they do San Francisco and the East Bay, but I would recommend them if you were looking there.” They act as the buyers agent, and their fee is paid by the seller.
6. The price point where the crowds thin out at open houses is about $1.5 million. Priced below that, hordes of people will go to the open house. Above that, it’s more like one or two dozen families.
7. Look for unlisted homes. Try to find a well-connected agent who has knowledge of upcoming listings, and use sites like aaltohomes.com to find unlisted properties, advised Baker. “Some sellers don’t want to deal with listing on the MLS or open houses,” he said. “The house we bought was unlisted, and there was only one family bidding against us instead of six.”
8. Get fully underwritten by your lender, not just pre-approved. “Many houses go on/off the market in a matter of days, so you’ll want a letter ready to go in your offer packet with the bank saying ‘Yes, we are prepared to loan them the money,'” Baker shared.
9. You will most likely lose your first offer, and it will crush you. “It will be sadness on the level of a pet dying,” he said. “Try to remember the family that just outbid you is no longer in the market, and you just moved up a spot.”
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