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More on Boomer Liquidations

woman

The CAR has been publishing goodies for realtors to use on their blogs – you may have seen them?  The part in the red circle is what I’d like to address.

My biggest concern coming down the pike is boomer liquidations.

The above graphic isn’t boomers only, but they sound like people who are at risk of having to sell their house to survive (unless they are all renting?).  For those boomers whose eyesight may be a little fuzzy when looking at the image – I’m one of you!

Here’s what they say above:

  • 67% of women agree they cannot possibly save as much money annually as retirement planning tools say they will need to invest in order to have a comfortable retirement.

  • 25% of women feel financially secure.

  • 36% of men feel financially secure.

Obviously this polling company must have found a bunch of losers to come to these conclusions.  But even if it was half this bad, it could be a problem.

We are currently enjoying a real sweet spot in real estate.  Not enough people want to sell (yet), and the market has been very orderly.

But if people aren’t financially secure, at what point do they sell their house to survive?

Baby boomers are susceptible to losing their health/job/spouse, and all it would take is for a handful of those around you to cash-out and run. Once you have a downward trend in pricing, then the lower-motivated sellers will wait, because they aren’t going to give it away.  Then who is going to sell?

The issue will probably work itself out over the next 10-20 years, and most homeowners probably won’t feel a thing.  But there could be neighborhoods where a quick exit by a handful of sellers could cause some pricing chaos.

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Posted by on Aug 31, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

Open House Theft

thief

Hat tip to ME for sending this in!

http://abc7.com/news/$150000-in-watches-jewelry-stolen-during-sherman-oaks-open-house/1490591/

An open house to sell a Sherman Oaks home opened the door to a set of thieves who made off with more than $150,000 of jewelry and watches.

The homeowner said his real estate agent was tricked by a couple who quickly scouted the house – then distracted him while two other men moved in.

“These guys seem like they were professionals. They walked right in, they didn’t pay attention to anybody. … It just seemed like they do this all the time.”

The men were caught on surveillance camera going upstairs, where they went into the home’s office and bedroom. The homeowner hid an expensive watch collection in his closet, but one of the men found it.  The other man grabbed an iPad and a camera, just put it around his neck and walked out with it.

Real estate agents suggest homeowners remove or lock up valuables before an open house.But this family says they’ll never have an open house again.

“Everybody has something small or something you’re not paying attention to and it’s taken,” the homeowner said. “My advice is do appointment only.”

Anyone who has information or recognizes the people in the surveillance video is asked to call police at 1-877-LAPD-24-7.

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Posted by on Aug 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Open House | 7 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

The June reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index increased +0.3% month-over-month, which was the same as last June.

Judging by the more-current graph at the bottom, we have already arrived in flatsville, and we can probably expect tepid results from our Case-Shiller Index for the remainder of 2016.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape. Sales of existing homes are at running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

Portland, Oregon, led the gainers with price appreciation of 12.6 percent. Seattle followed with an 11 percent increase, and Denver came in third with a 9.2 percent gain.

“In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10 percent; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation,” Blitzer said.

Here are the recent San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.35
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
223.05
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.06
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
225.75
+0.3%
+6.4%

aug

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Posted by on Aug 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

Fall Buying Season

Image result for fall leaves color

The last third of 2016 starts on Thursday!

From Trulia:

http://www.trulia.com/blog/best-things-about-fall-real-estate/

For the first time in recent history, October surpassed June as the most popular month to get married. And these autumn-loving brides may be on to something: Although the spring months are notoriously the best time to buy real estate (as well as have a wedding), fall may be the new ideal season to buy a home.

Here are seven insights on why you should buy a home during the fall season:

1. There’s less competition

Competition for houses drops off in the fall, a time many people consider to be off-season in real estate. But there are still homes for sale — and in some cases, there’s just as much inventory as there was during the spring and summer. “[Fall] means new inventory and repositioned old inventory that did not sell in the prime season,” says Wesley Stanton, a New York, NY, agent with The Stanton Hoch Team.

This puts you in a great position to negotiate. “Fall homebuyers should consider making lowball offers, followed by more aggressive negotiation,” says Brian Davis, a real estate investor and director of education at Spark Rental. Davis points out that many sellers are very motivated to sell before the holidays. If possible, buyers should let these sellers know that they can close before Thanksgiving or before the school winter break.

2. Sellers are worn-out

Some sellers who put their homes on the market during the prime selling times of spring and summer might have been a tad overconfident by listing their homes for more than buyers were willing to spend. After months of no action, these sellers are often ready to make a deal.

“Sellers who were unrealistic earlier in the year about price will now be more willing to reduce the price come fall,” says Thomas Miller, a Washington, DC, real estate agent. “Because there [are fewer buyers] and because the sellers are now eager to sell, they are more inclined to take the low offer than wait another six months for spring to come around.”

3. Sellers are serious

Not all homes on the market in fall are summer leftovers. Some people need to sell in the fall because the timing is right. Maybe they were having a home built, and it’s now ready. Maybe they need to move because of a job. “The sellers with houses on the market in the fall tend to be serious,” says Sam Heskel, president of Nadlan Valuation, an appraisal management company in Brooklyn, NY. “That means sellers could be more open to negotiating and accepting a lower offer.”

4. You can take advantage of tax breaks

First-time homebuyers, take note: Although you can’t escape paying income tax, you can make a dent in what you owe when you become a homeowner. “Property tax and mortgage interest are both deductions you can take for your whole year’s worth of income, even if you closed on your home in December,” says David Hryck, a New York, NY tax adviser, lawyer, and personal finance expert. “Any payments that are made prior to the closing of the loan are tax-deductible. This can make a serious difference in the amount you owe the government at the end of the year.”

5. Fall is a safer time of year

Did you know that burglars have peak seasons? They do, says Sarah Brown, a home safety expert for SafeWise.com. “July and August are prime months for burglaries to take place,” she says. “Waiting until the fall [to buy] gives you an advantage when learning about a home and the neighborhood.” You’ll be settled in your home and can take precautions — like setting up that new alarm system — before the next burglary season rolls around.

6. You’re the center of attention

Because spring and summer are ideal times to buy a home, real estate agents are usually busier then. And that could mean you might not always get the attention you want. This is also true for other professionals you’re working with to buy a house. “Service providers, such as mortgage lenders and title companies, are moving out of the summertime sales swamp and can often respond more quickly,” says John Lazenby, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association in Orlando, FL.

The same goes for movers. “Because summer is peak moving season, people often experience more delays and service issues, such as moving companies reaching capacity and running out of trucks to pick up shipments,” says Jack Griffin, president and chief operating officer of Atlas World Group. “The probability of experiencing a delay goes way down in the fall season.”

7. You can take advantage of end-of-year sales to outfit your home

There are bound to be improvements you’ll want to make after buying a house. You’ll also probably need to buy items to maintain your home, and if appliances weren’t part of the deal, you’ll need those too. Wouldn’t it be great to coordinate your home purchase with sales on items you’ll need? According to Consumer Reports, the calendar determines when it’s a good time to buy all sorts of consumer goods. In particular, September is a great time for buying carpet and paint. October means lawn mowers go on sale, and appliances and cookware are cheaper in November.

http://www.trulia.com/blog/best-things-about-fall-real-estate/

Posted by on Aug 29, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

spa

There were 75 new pendings in the past week, which is the highest amount since the end of May!  No surprise that the action was concentrated on the lower-end, but the Over-$2,000,000 market isn’t dead:

Last Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Under-$2,000,000
56
64
Over-$2,000,000
20
11

We are still lagging behind the strong sales counts of 2015. Last August we closed 235 sales, and this month there has been 168 closings with three days to go plus late-reporters.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 29, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Realtor Video Tour

glendale

I know it is 2016, but it’s rare that we see an agent do a real video tour of a new listing.  I’d like to acknowledge this guy who did a simple 1:29-minute video here to advertise his open house today:

http://www.bruceavenue.com/

There are at least 30 people in line!  He also has 3,200 views on Facebook.

Videos work!

Posted by on Aug 28, 2016 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Realtor, Realtor Training | 0 comments