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Rest of 2015

This summer’s 3-mo moving averages look quite different from last year.

In 2014, the list-pricing started to falter as summer approached, and stumbled along until this spring.  But since then, we’ve been on a tear!

summer 2015 avg LP vs avg SP

How can it be explained?  The lower-end buyers are more affected by rising rates, so maybe they are scrambling to buy anything affordable while they can?

According to the MLS, the San Diego County detached-home sales are 7% higher for the first seven months of 2015, compared to last year!  Summer sales this year are hotter than the 2013 frenzy levels in the graph below.

summer 2015 actives vs solds

Any decent houses-for-sale have been gobbled up so quickly that the inventory appears bleak to casual observers who only see low numbers and lousy offerings left behind by the more-motivated buyers.

The casual buyers and sellers will check out once school starts – leaving the rest of this year to the motivated players on both sides.

When is the best time to buy?  When everyone else isn’t!

Posted by on Aug 3, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

Hello August!

The summer market is winding down, and the unsuccessful sellers will be cancelling their listings over the next two months – which is great for buyers. Why?  Because any new listings won’t be using those OPTs as price indicators!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 3, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Weekend in LA

The transition of our daughter Natalie moving to Los Angeles has begun.  We went with her for a weekend dance convention, and used our hotel points collected over the last 10-20 years to score a free room in a downtown hotel.

Little did I know that it was five minutes away from the Petros and Money summer tour stop, so I talked Donna into going – just to say hello to the ultimate Laker homer, Vic the Brick.

Here are a few photos from our weekend:

2015-07-31 16.36.53

2015-07-31 17.45.39


2015-07-31 22.13.47

2015-08-01 20.53.40

2015-08-02 13.12.17


How was your weekend?

Posted by on Aug 2, 2015 in About the author | 1 comment

House-Price Torpedos

Their agents are telling buyers to wait…but wait for what? Wait how long? Wait for who?  It’s irresponsible to make such casual comments.

Not mentioned in this article is that a good agent can overcome all these obstacles, and a bad agent makes them worse:

Posted by on Aug 1, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments

Home-Value Guessing

I don’t remember ever hearing about this guy, but he was part of the Case-Shiller team that devised the Index, and now he does his own thing.

Here they developed a tool to predict the chances of hitting your target value in the next year. Click on the link below and once inside, click on ‘Tools’ at the top of the page:

Plus they have a colorful history of values that goes to 2016, so at least some of these are speculative. Each dot on this map represents one house – the color represents whether the house is increasing or decreasing in value that month:

Posted by on Aug 1, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, The Future | 2 comments