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The convention is complete, NewsCorp has purchased Move Inc./realtor.com, and we have a new president! Chris has been on the Board of Directors since 2002, participated on several national committees, and is still an active agent too. He’s been waiting and planning for this moment for years - here are the goals for his presidency:
We’ve doubled the number of negative readings of the local Case-Shiller Index, and they are picking up steam!
But seriously, any monthly change of less than 1% just means prices are stagnant, and in San Diego it’s been like that since the April reading. If prices were flat during the prime selling season, we’re probably fortunate that they’ve held up this long.
Economist Robert Shiller told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” the reading was not exciting, and he noted that the winter season is historically slow for home sales. ”We haven’t expected exciting growth for a while, but it does look like seasonally adjusted home prices are still growing,” he said.
These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:
Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this latimes.com article about the surge of high-end home sales across the Southland:
Luxury home sales in Southern California are hitting levels not seen in decades. The number of homes bought for $2 million or more in recent months is the highest on record. Sales worth $10 million or more are on pace this year to double their number from the heights of the housing bubble.
“It’s pretty mind-blowing, to be honest,” said Cindy Ambuehl, an agent with the Partners Trust in Brentwood. “The luxury market has been completely on fire.”
Low interest rates, a strong stock market and waves of cash sloshing in from overseas are boosting demand for high-dollar homes. A record 1,436 homes worth $2 million or more were sold in the six-county Southland in the second quarter, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.
How are we doing locally? It’s worth noting that the supply of higher-end homes has been surging too (assuming the ‘refreshing’ of listings has been fairly constant over the years).
Below you can see how the market has been shifting upward:
NSDCC Detached Homes Listed/Sold By Price Range
|2011 New Listings/Solds|
|2012 New Listings/Solds|
|2013 New Listings/Solds|
|2014 New Listings/Solds|
These are 12-month stats so you need to extrapolate to compare 2014 accurately (add about 10% to these current counts). You can see how the Under-$1M folks have been left shaking their head – they have about a third fewer homes to consider since 2011!
This is the 52nd week of logging the inventory under this format, so you can reflect back to a year ago and compare how we’re doing. Today’s numbers are similar to 2013 – here is a summary of the late-November comparison:
|$1.4M – $2.4M|
At least those who haven’t bought yet can say they didn’t lose any ground in 2014. Expect their resolve to stand firm in 2015.
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Zillow has refined their forecast of local ZHVIs over the next year. The Zillow Home Value Index results have tracked the Case-Shiller Index closely, and are probably as good as any crystal ball in predicting the future.
These are the predicted changes in the ZHVI by October 31, 2015:
The Case-Shiller Index for September will be released on Tuesday, and Zillow is predicting that the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers (which are the ones publicized) will be negative:
The media will be using words like ‘fragile’, and ‘struggling’ to describe the real estate market, and we’ll probably hear calls for more intervention.
But the market is supposed to go up and down; that’s why they call it a ‘real estate market’, and not a ‘real estate guarantee’. The history of real estate has followed a ten-year pattern (which it did until Angelo’s creative financing skewed the timeline), which means we are due for at least a plateau. The local trough was April, 2009, and we’ve been flat for at least six months.
Our market is fine – you will still be able to sell your house next year for more money than it has ever been worth. We’ll still see bidding wars and OPTs. Just don’t buy the media’s version that the sky is falling just because prices aren’t going up constantly.
More forecasts here: