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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Most recent articles

Sold Before Processing – The Impact

People question how big of a problem it is that listing agents withhold their listings and sell them before inputting them onto the MLS – which denies their own sellers the benefit of open-market exposure, and potentially a better offer.

Above is a sample from today’s MLS hotsheet.

There were a total of 51 properties that were marked either pending or sold, and of those, eight were sold prior to MLS input.

  1. Sellers don’t get open-market exposure.
  2. Buyers get robbed of a chance to purchase the home that might be the perfect fit, AND then wonder why their current buyer’s agent isn’t getting those deals for them.
  3. Other agents are denied the opportunity to earn a living.

But the listing agents get to double-end the commission, so it’s allowed – at least by broker management, NAR, CAR, and the MLS itself; the entities who could do something about it – but who look the other way instead.

Posted by on Jul 17, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Realtor, Scams, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.

The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic.  Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better?  Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97
July 16, 2018
973
357
1,330
2.73

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Apr
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.2
2.9
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.0
1.3
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
0.9
1.1
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.4
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
3.3
9.4
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
2.0
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
3.7
4.4
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
5.2
4.6
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
1.5
2.0
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.9
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.0
2.7

These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.

Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.

Posted by on Jul 16, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Stage Three?

The pending count finally reversed course and gained 6% this week, after dropping for the last five weeks.  Just in time to be greeted by this ZH post on the three stages of a housing bubble – hat tip to Doug for sending in:

Stage One usually ends with price spikes in the hottest markets so extreme that they generate headlines. Like these:

Phase Two of a typical US housing bubble begins when sellers read these headlines and note that prices are now above what they could have gotten in the last bubble. With the memory of how badly they’d wished they’d sold at the peak, they realize that they’ve been given a second chance to cash out, move to a cheaper, less-frenetic place, and coast on their real estate riches. So they call a realtor and list their house. As do a bunch of their neighbors. Supply, out of the blue, jumps.

That may be what’s happening now:

The most competitive, tightest housing market in decades may finally be loosening its grip, and that could put pressure on overheated home prices. The supply of homes for sale in the second quarter of 2018, the all-important spring market, rose at three times the rate of the same period in 2017, according to Trulia, a real estate listing and research company.

The inventory jump was the largest quarterly improvement in three years and could be signaling a slight thaw in today’s housing market. But it is just a start.

“This seasonal inventory jump wasn’t enough to offset the historical year-over-year downward trend that has continued over 14 consecutive quarters,” according to Alexandra Lee, a housing data analyst for Trulia’s economics research team.

The supply of homes for sale is still down 5.3 percent compared with a year ago. Still, all real estate is local, and some markets are seeing greater relief. Thirty of the nation’s 100 largest cities, including New York City, Miami and Los Angeles, now have more supply than a year ago.

Of course, the increase is a double-edged sword. Supplies are increasing because sales are slowing, and sales are slowing because prices are so high. In New York City, the median household must spend 65 percent of its income to buy a home, according to Trulia. In Los Angeles, it takes 59 percent.

“Among these unaffordable metros, San Diego posted the largest inventory growth—22 percent year-over-year,” wrote Lee. “Compare that with the same quarter last year, when that Southern California metro registered a 28 percent inventory decrease.”

Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home plummeted nearly 9 percent in June compared with June 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This suggests lower new home sales going forward, despite higher price.

CNBC link

Stage Two’s deluge of supply sets the table for US housing bubble Stage Three by soaking up the remaining demand and changing the tenor of the market. Deals get done at the asking price instead of way above, then at a little below, then a lot below. Instead of being snapped up the day they’re listed, houses begin to languish on the market for weeks, then months. Would-be sellers, who have already mentally cashed their monster peak-bubble-price checks, start to panic. They cut their asking prices preemptively, trying to get ahead of the decline, which causes “comps” to plunge, forcing subsequent sellers to cut even further.

Sales volumes contract, mortgage bankers and realtors get laid off. Then the last year’s (in retrospect) really crappy mortgages start defaulting, the mortgage-backed bonds that contain their paper plunge in price, et voila, we’re back in 2008.

How far away is the climax of Stage Three? It’s too soon to tell, with just one quarter of trend-reversal data on-hand. But if you’re thinking of selling (or if you own a lot of bank stocks or are thinking of shorting such stocks), now might be a good time to start paying attention and taking the appropriate steps.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-16/us-housing-bubble-enters-stage-two-suddenly-motivated-sellers

Read More

Posted by on Jul 16, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 7 comments

Bridge Loans

Are you turned off by the e-buyer who wants to lowball your home’s value, and then knock off another 7% to 9%?  But you like the idea of having your equity available for the next purchase?

How about an old-fashioned bridge loan?

Joel arranged financing for a recent buyer of ours who changed jobs during the week of escrow closing – Joel re-verified employment and still closed on time. This was on 97% financing of a converted-apartment condo built in 1979.

Thanks Joel!

Posted by on Jul 15, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage News, Mortgage Qualifying | 0 comments

Rich Vs. Everyone Else

Daytrip sent in this link to ZH, and it typifies what we’ll probably see up and down the coast and rich people battle it out with everyone else who is left.  The wackos will be the most obvious on the front lines in the beginning, but eventually there could be a real revolution by regular people who are sick of the divide. The comment section is as important as the actual advertisement:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-14/fed-populace-warns-san-franciscans-watch-your-backs-homeless-people

P.S. Government and law enforcement won’t be getting in front of this – there will need to be some violent clashes before any attention is put on this topic.

Posted by on Jul 14, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, The Future | 10 comments