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bubbleinfo.com | An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate

2025 Price Forecasts

As usual, the pricing forecasts for next year are varied. How do we know what to expect?

The average and the median is +3.55%.

Two entities picked +2.3%.

Just go with the highest at +10.8%?

Moody’s, the leader of the Doom Squad, just couldn’t say flat. They had to go with -0.4%.

None of these supplied their math or any reasoning to justify their guesses.

We do have this going for us:

“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like lowering housing costs for all Americans. He will deliver,” said Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the Trump-Vance transition.

NSDCC 2024 Detached-Home Annual Sales:

Median Sales Price: +9% YoY

Average $$/SF: +7%

Median $$/sf: +10%

Sales +2% and we still have the whole month of December to add!

Pick Two

There is a saying in real estate that buyers can pick two of three: Size, Condition, Location.

I’m going to modify it slightly, because price should be in there.

Home Buyers – Pick Two: Price, Condition, Location.

  • If a buyer wants a home in fantastic condition and in a great location, then expect to pay a premium.
  • If a buyer wants to get a great price, then they can expect to sacrifice on condition and/or location.
  • If you don’t care about location, keep driving further out until you can find a great house at a great price.

Getting all three is miracle work – buy a lottery ticket while you’re at it.

Here’s my version for home sellers:

Home Sellers – Pick One: Price, Condition, Convenience.

  • Want your price? Then spend big money on a tune-up and vacate the home for max showings.
  • Selling the home in its current condition? Hard to say when it will sell, and for how much.
  • If you want the proceeds on a certain date, then sell to a flipper or auction the home.

There are many variables but you get the idea. Those who have a specific need can sacrifice in other areas to get the results they want. Typically, you don’t get everything!

Trendy Tuesday

KK’s 2024 Home Gift Guide

Hey there folks and HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON! While some are still digesting their Thanksgiving turkey and leftovers, others have been busy shopping Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals. In case you’re still searching for holiday presents, I wanted to share some recent home purchases I’ve made for myself. Oh, and I would give a 10/10 for all items!

Rug from Rugs USA – My sister was nice enough to gift this to me/my boyfriend and to say I’m obsessed is an understatement. Also, the temperature has dropped significantly in NYC, so this rug is especially nice in the early mornings when it’s freezing outside. I got the brown color and it’s SO pretty!

Bed Sheets from Parachute – To be fully transparent, I was 100% influenced to buy these but I’m so glad I did! Yes, they might be expensive for bed sheets but you’ll have your Parachute sheets for quite some time. I bought 3 different colors of their Percale sheets and they’re perfect for hot sleepers!

Duvet Set from Boll & Branch – Another purchase where I was influenced! LOL. But my god this duvet set is a dream. You know that feeling of jumping into your freshly made hotel bed? That’s the feeling I get everytime I get under my Boll & Branch duvet cover.

Plant Stands from Etsy – Supporting small businesses is the best! I’ve recently been getting into plants and now plants stands… #thisis33. Last month, I bought a dark walnut stand and now my plant is thriving in the sunshine! This company is awesome because their stools come in different colors and sizes, and it’s not too pricey either!

AD at 100 Coffee Table Book – Obsessed with this book. If you like looking at stunning multi-million dollar properties from all over the world, you should buy this book immediately! Also, I swear I bought this when it was closer to $100ish dollars so now it’s a steal!

Happy Tuesday everyone! – KK

Over List, November

Another month where the percentage of buyers who paid over the list price was around one out of five, while exactly HALF of the buyers paid at least $100,000 UNDER the list price!

There were 11% of the sales where the listing agent also represented the buyer too.

September, October, and November sales all exceeded their sales in 2023 – momentum is building!

Inventory Watch

Holy cow – it’s December! The Spring Selling Season starts on January 4th – just 33 days from now!

It will be here before we know it!

The number of active listings is dropping fast now, and is getting closer to last year’s count (373 vs 340). There were 452 actives just two weeks ago, so those that have cancelled have to be planning a comeback in 2025.

(more…)

Buyer-Agent Commissions, Nov

As of August 17th, home sellers are not required to pay the buyer-agent’s commission. Listing agents are forbidden from mentioning any compensation being offered to the buyer-agents in the active listings, but the CRMLS requires that the amount that was paid is posted in the listing at closing.

CRMLS runs the MLS for north county. Agents can also belong to the San Diego Association of Realtors which does not require posting of the buyer-agent commission paid.

I’m adjusting the timing to show these reports on a monthly basis so today’s data is for the 201 sales between October 16th and November 30th.  There were 83 of the 201 who posted the commission paid to the buyer-agents by the seller. We can’t assume that the other 118 sellers (201-83) didn’t pay a commission because reporting isn’t required.

I haven’t heard of any buyers yet who got stuck having to pay their buyer-agent because the seller refused to pay. Undoubtably, there are buyer-agents who were paid a partial fee by the seller and then the buyer made up the difference – that’s the intent of the buyer-broker agreement being required now.

These are the reported commissions paid to the buyer-agents between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

Erosion is underway. It’s because some agents are weak and desperate, as I mentioned in April, and the buzz in the realtor community is that agents are quiting en masse. I’ll be nice and call it ‘retiring’. So those buyers who want an agent who charges less can certainly find them – and they will get the quality of service that they deserve.

But virtually all of the sellers are paying some commission to the buyer-agent, and about half are paying more than 2%.

This isn’t the world we wanted. This isn’t the world we asked for. This is what 12 jurors in Missouri thought you deserved (as did the attorneys who charged $100,000,000+ for prep work and a week in court).

Monaco

Can you imagine living oceanfront and somehow they build condos right in front of you?

Monaco’s new district of Mareterra officially opens next month with some of the most expensive real estate in the world. Condos and villas designed by Renzo Piano, Tadao Ando and Lord Norman Foster built on new land created and claimed from the sea: pricing will go over $11,000/sf. Almost 100,000sf of solar panels, heat pumps to power all heating and cooling mechanisms, captured rainwater to irrigate plants and 1,000 newly planted trees are some of the eco-friendly features. And the area is income tax free too….

https://mareterra.com/en/

JtR and AI

Thank you for being here!

I do this blog mostly to educate myself about the current market conditions, and I figure that I might as well publish the information I find for all to see.

Including the bots.

With artificial intelligence scanning the internet for new data every minute, the bots may swing by here on occasion. How much of the audience here are real people, and how many are bots? It would be entertaining to know the answer – does anyone know?

The New Users are a big part of the audience:

Do the bots use mobile?

The bubbleinfo audience is mostly from America but the bots are probably located everywhere?

There isn’t much I can do about it. This blog is copywritten but I’d only chase down a violator if they were really offensive. If the AI bots copy everything here and use it to educate others about real estate, I’d live with that. There is a lot to copy:

But I’ll get even with AI. Here’s a sample:

Happy Thanksgiving!

We are eternally grateful for all the generous support of Mama’s Kitchen. This year we distributed 92 pies and had another $1,700 in contributions that will enable Mama’s to provide about 1,740 medically-tailored meals to the critically ill in San Diego!

https://mamaskitchen.org/

Thanks so much for your support, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Thank you Eddie89 for alerting us to the rankings (the cash donations were counted as extra pies):

 

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