Do buyers need to wait until 2025, or are there some deals to be had now?
I have some unfinished business left in La Costa that buyers in search of a project should consider.
It’s a home that needs major updating to become a modern custom golf estate, but we have it priced in. Thelast sale nearby was in July for $2,350,000 for 2,432sf that was right on the street (not directly on the golf course like my listing is). We are 2,887sf of single-level living on a 9,800sf lot with 82-feet of golf course frontage for just $1,995,000!
We’ve had lookers and one low offer so we’re still in the hunt. Come by 12-2pm on Saturday!
I keep adding and subtracting photos in the MLS, and refreshing the remarks too:
Oh geez, did Jim say something about prices going down?
Yes, and isn’t it inevitable in areas where there is more supply than demand?
Sure, we can always reflect on Rancho Santa Fe where having your home languish on the market every year is a rite of passage. Somebody will come along some day, won’t they?
Bill is one of the OGs from 2005 and he is more analytical than me. He is giving us a formula; when the months’ supply gets over 5, prices might decline:
The NSDCC is safely around a 3-month supply currently. We’ll see where it is in February and March!
If there is a surge of inventory in early 2025, what will happen?
Here are the choices:
Frenzy – With rates stubbornly high, the best case is a mini-frenzy where buyers engage in bidding wars for only the top-quality listings. Some of the insanity bleeds over to the not-so-great homes and a few get picked up. About 33% to 50% of listings sell, and the more sane, rational buyers are left shaking their heads.
Not Frenzy – There aren’t enough buyers left who are willing to pay whatever it takes, and instead the wait-and-seers get even more picky and only 1 out of 10 listings are selling.
Middle Muddle – This is the most likely scenario. Great agents list the spruced-up homes for attractive prices and there is a good, solid flow of sales happening….while most listings are languishing on the market. Those sellers want to believe that if they just wait longer, they will be rewarded. By summertime, there are unsold listings stacking up everywhere – and being ignored.
I heard about one seller who has already moved, and intends to list their home for sale in early 2025. They paid $1,800,000 for it two years ago, and when you look at the listing photos, you wonder what they were thinking. But now their zestimate is $2,475,000, so they are going to list for $2,500,000 – even though they didn’t do any work.
There will be hundreds of listings that try to pull off a miracle like that one. Pricing will seem insane.
In the first quarter of 2024 there were 763 NSDCC homes listed for sale.
If there is the 20% surge on top of last year’s inventory, it would make for 916 listings in 1Q25.
Let’s predict 1,000 first-quarter listings to account for the many re-lists coming from late-2024.
I’m going to guess only 25% to 33% of those are salable.
We know that usually there are 2/3s of the listings that sell, so it will be a weird mix that nobody sees coming. There will be a steady flow of sales but only a minority of the total homes for sale are getting lucky.
It’s the swipe-left generation, where the junkers, bad-locations, and terribly-presented homes get ignored immediately. Buyers will forget them forever unless there are major price reductions – which won’t happen because “hey, I’ve only been on the market a couple of months and I’m not going to give it away”.
What will happen as we get into March-May? The unsolds will be stacking up to the sky, causing buyers to get even more picky, while sellers are digging in on price.
Mortgage rates are too high, and I think Powell is going to finally get what he wanted – peak pricing.
The main reason? If sellers have to take 5% to 10% less, they can.
Last time, they were maxed out on ez-qual financing and had no equity. But it’s the total opposite now, and we’re going to see how bad the sellers want and need to sell. If they had to take 10% to 20% less, they could, and they would still come out with a load of cash.
Think of my last Over-List report.
In November, HALF of the NSDCC sales closed for at least $100,000 UNDER the list price!
Because the creampuffs selling for top-dollar will be a smaller minority, our lousy pricing metrics will get dragged down by the sellers who dump on price. They could have spruced up their home and/or hired a better agent in the beginning, but nobody told them it was going to be this tough to sell. Instead, they dump.
A larger price gap between the creampuffs and fixers will develop, causing more appreciation for how critical it is to have an excellent presentation AND an attractive price.
Last week there were 386 NSDCC active listings, and today there are 343 – a difference of 57.
Impressively, there were 25 listings that were marked as ‘pending’ in the last week! But it also means that a load of the unsuccessful sellers of 2024 will be back early next year, with most relisting in January.
This year we began with 255 NSDCC active listings.
In 2025, there will be 300+ and dozens of others flooding back into the market.
Who are they?
We are a community dominated by empty-nesters. From last January:
Around 80% of the local homeowners have been here for more than eight years!
Those are the folks who have received $1,000,000+ in home equity since the pandemic.
It’s not hard to imagine that 10% to 20% of them will want to cash out in 2025!
An additional 15% to 20% of inventory next year (on top of the 14% surge in 2024) is in the bag.
Kayla is in town so we were trying to do the more-professional looking videos, which for me means doing a more-formal introduction of myself for those new to our Instagram channel.
On the same day, Robert Reffkin appeared on CNBC and said that research shows that inventory will climb another 15% in 2025 – which is what I said! Many observers will shrug it off and declare that we’re just normalizing back to pre-pandemic levels, but pricing has increased over 60% since then:
Will prices drop to adjust for more inventory?
There probably won’t be much movement on price early in the year, because sellers will be thinking about the spring selling season blah blah and they will be much more comfortable waiting until summer before looking for the panic button. They’re not in a hurry, and they’re not going to give it away!
The one thing we know for sure: Home sellers will want to get what the last guy got. Nobody is going to be listing with a low price in the first 3-6 months of 2025.
The results will all be up to the buyers – are you willing to pay the same prices for homes when active listings are piling up unsold? Everyone will expect you to!
I love that Robert Reffkin is becoming the industry spokesman – what he says is mostly accurate and informative. For the record, yesterday we had Natalie film my next video before I saw the boss talking about 2025 inventory:
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
