The sellers aren’t done yet! Look at the bump in actives about the same time last year!
It may feel like we’re due for an end-of-summer sale, but the pendings dropped in 2024. In the last week, there were 24 listings that were marked pending – do you think there will be a surge of 40-60 this week? Yeah, probably not, unless a group of sellers do something drastic about their price.
There have been 1,883 NSDCC listings in 2025. Of those, 878 have sold or gone pending (47%) and 406 have expired, cancelled, or withdrawn (22%).
A local investor told me on Friday that he has a beach apartment for rent that is already priced 10% below the previous rent – and there has been no interest. Home sellers should be cautious about thinking they “can just rent it out if I have to”.
A power struggle is emerging between buyers and sellers — and it’s not yet clear who will gain the upper hand. Sellers continue to demand premium home prices, according to Realtor.com’s June housing trends report. Many sellers have plenty of equity and low locked-in mortgage rates, both factors that enable them to be patient.
With inventory continuing to grow, buyers are getting the kind of leverage they haven’t seen in years, and are able to shop around for the best deal. Buyers seem to be waiting for home prices or mortgage rates to drop, as evidenced by the sluggish home sales numbers this spring.
Sellers who are unable to get their preferred home prices can become “accidental landlords,” according to a recent report from ATTOM. Based on research from Parcl Labs, the report found that areas where inventory has climbed the most tended to have higher shares of failed listings that ultimately turned into rentals.
“Accidental landlord rates matter because they represent more rental supply entering already-competitive markets,” Parcl Labs Co-founder Jason Lewris wrote in the report.
So will real estate tip in buyers’ favor? In many local markets where inventory has jumped, it already has. At the national level, it may take time as sellers’ advantages remain, according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
Rise in delistings, price cuts: This balance between buyers and sellers is something the market has not seen since the housing supply reached six months nearly a decade ago.
“We’re seeing hesitation on both sides of the market,” said Anthony Djon, founder of Anthony Djon Luxury Real Estate. “Inventory is rising, giving buyers more options and making them more price-sensitive and selective. At the same time, some sellers — especially those not getting immediate traction — are stepping back. The market has clearly shifted from the urgency and intensity of recent years, and today’s homeowners are having to recalibrate their expectations.”
That hesitancy appeared in Realtor.com’s latest trends data. In June, inventory was up 28.9% YoY, with active listings above 1 million nationally. Meanwhile, the rate at which homeowners pulled their listings jumped 47% year-over-year in May.
To rank America’s Top States for Business in 2025, CNBC scored all 50 states on 135 metrics in 10 broad categories of competitiveness. The fundamentals of the study, now in its 19th year, are the same as they have always been, identifying the factors companies consider year after year when making site selection decisions, and that states pitch in their efforts to woo business. Each category is weighted based on how frequently states use them as a selling point in economic development marketing materials, with Economy No. 1 this year.
New in 2025, we have added metrics to gauge the states’ risks from a trade war and a shrinking federal budget. We have also enhanced some of our Infrastructure metrics to determine how the states are delivering on companies’ power and data demands. We developed our criteria and metrics in consultation with a diverse array of business and policy experts, and the states. Our study is not an opinion survey. We use data from a variety of sources to measure the states’ performance. Under our methodology, states can earn a maximum of 2,500 points. The states with the most points are America’s Top States for Business.
Here’s how it’s playing out in San Diego. Even though the flow of new listings has slowed to last year’s level (a sign of sellers surrendering before starting and not bothering to list at all in 2025), the unsolds are stacked to the sky:
At least half, and probably 60% to 70% of today’s listings won’t sell in 2025 because the sellers won’t adjust the price enough. Instead, they will decide that the market is bad this year and hope it will be better in 2026. But they won’t adjust their price next year either.
Of course, we could always experience a curveball that could radically alter the market conditions without notice. If you thought the inventory surge this year was noticeable, wait until this takes effect! Hat tip to Annabama for sending this in:
Today, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) introduced the No Tax on Home Sales Act—a bold proposal to eliminate the federal capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. This commonsense reform delivers critical tax relief to homeowners and helps increase housing supply nationwide.
“Families who work hard, build equity, and sell their homes should not be punished with massive tax bills,” said Congresswoman Greene. “The capital gains tax on home sales is an outdated, unfair burden—especially in today’s housing market, where values have skyrocketed. My bill fixes that.”
Currently, the IRS allows an exclusion of up to $250,000 ($500,000 for joint filers) in capital gains from home sales, but those limits haven’t been updated since 1997. As home prices have risen, more middle-class homeowners are being hit with capital gains taxes that were originally intended for wealthy investors.
Congresswoman Greene’s bill would:
Eliminate the federal capital gains tax on home sales
Encourage mobility by removing a key disincentive to selling, helping to increase housing supply
Deliver tax relief to homeowners looking to downsize or relocate without being penalized for appreciation
Protect first-time buyers by improving inventory and lowering prices in the most constrained housing markets
“Homeowners who have lived in their homes for decades, especially seniors in places where values have surged, shouldn’t be forced to stay put because of an IRS penalty. My bill unlocks that equity, helps fix the housing shortage, and supports long-term financial security for American families,” Greene added.
The bill explicitly applies to individuals selling their primary residence and does not apply to home flippers or real estate investors.
The market has changed significantly and buyers have gained considerable negotiating power. Those who take advantage of it will likely earn a decent discount for the remainder of 2025.
But how much discount?
And where is it going over the next few years?
Surely, we can count on these guys:
Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls over 100 housing experts across the industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, with the Fannie Mae Home Price Index as the benchmark.
Let’s be conservative and adopt the view of the pessimists, which means their 0.7% this year is virtually flat. Let’s call their 1% for 2026 flat too, so for the next 18 months there won’t be any measurable price change, according to the experts.
My hypothesis is that the selling season has been reduced to January and February. For pricing to be flat for the year, it means January and February, or at least the first quarter of each year will carry the burden of propping up the pricing for the rest of the year.
Hopefully, we won’t have a Liberation Day every April that sucks the life out of the market. We may even enjoy lower mortgage rates that have the potential to create mini-frenzy conditions – wouldn’t that be something!
But for this discussion, let’s assume the usual chaos over the next three years will keep things relatively the same as they have been recently. Because it’s the high prices that are keeping a throttle on our local market, and there would need to be a monumental change in pricing for sales to pick up.
This is where the San Diego metro has been, and the NSDCC has done better:
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
In the last half of 2024, the Case-Shiller Index declined 3.1% – and that’s including a flat December. I think that the rest of 2025 will be at least that bad.
It probably means that our pricing will decline by 5% between now and 2026.
It’s not a big deal, and you will hardly notice it.
All you see now is a lot of homes not selling. It would take a huge drop – like 10% or so – for it to be obvious. Most buyers and sellers are ready to check out for the rest of the year, and they will all come back hungry in January. I’ll say it is very possible that values will rise again by that same 5% in the first quarter of 2026 – especially if rates are under 6%.
I heard the story yesterday of one of the losers from my bidding war on Clemens where we sold the home for 20% over the list price. The next home these buyers saw with a big view, they made an offer that was +10% over list and demanded an answer within 24 hours. The sellers took it.
Crazy will still be in the air (1/4 of the NSDCC sales last month closed over their list price), and sales of the creampuffs will help buoy the general pricing statistics.
I was going to play some of the Black Sabbath footage from their last show but the videos were a mess. Instead, Jeff Lynne of ELO will be playing his last show on Sunday so let’s throw back to 1976. It was on this tour that I saw them play at the Phoenix Veterans Memorial Coliseum and they had an awesome green-light laser show that I’ll never forget. One of my first concerts!
Many thanks to Lance for providing more great data!
It is very realistic that the inventory will be at much higher levels by this time next year – just from the amount of unsolds that will drag into the new year. Lower rates won’t be enough to save all sellers – or pricing!
We could go from record-low inventory to record-high inventory within 5-6 years!
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Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
