Get Good Help!

by | May 11, 2022 | Realtor | 1 comment

The part that disrupters overlook is that the people doing the work need to be really good at advising and transacting real estate sales. It’s not as easy as it looks!

Real estate brokerage REX Homes became famous in recent years for spearheading an anti-trust lawsuit against Zillow and the National Association of Realtors, accusing them of being a ‘cartel’ to edge out non-MLS participants. But it appears that as of today, the company may no longer be in existence.

Numerous staff reached out to us directly to indicate the company’s last day was Tuesday and that a companywide call on Friday outlined the end of REX Homes.

Staff at the Austin and The Woodlands offices (both in Texas) have confirmed that as of today, the doors are literally closed. It is unclear what REX’s plans are for wrapping up any current contracts that haven’t closed.

The company’s website remains live with no notification of any service interruptions and there have been no changes to the faces that appear on the staffing page.

Many Glassdoor users have begun leaving reviews asserting that operations have ceased. To thicken the mystery, we’ve already seen several recent reviews disappear, but it is unclear if that is Glassdoor or REX’s doing.

Several LinkedIn users formerly employed at REX Homes are putting their #OpenToNetwork signs up, stating the company has closed – some indicate departments dissolving, others that the entire company has collapsed.

Link to Article

Over List, April

by | May 10, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy, Over List | 3 comments

Will April be the peak month of buyers paying over the list price?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

Hard to imagine that there will ever be another month where nearly three-quarters of the home buyers end up paying over the list price!

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How about those $3,000,000+ home buyers!

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NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
156
$3,058,406
$3,104,854
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
206
$3,254,033
$3,342,384
$2,425,000
$2,625,000
Apr
224
$3,205,239
$3,267,447
$2,372,500
$2,575,000

Whoops – after the average sales price went up 7% MoM in January, 9% in February, and 8% in March, it dropped by 2% in April.

Same here – after the median sales price went up 4% MoM in January, 7% in February, and 10% in March, it dropped 2% in April too!

The median sales price could drop another 15% this year and still be in positive territory for 2022. Yet it would feel like a complete meltdown of epic proportions!

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Inventory Watch

by | May 9, 2022 | Inventory


While it would be logical to think that anyone who is going to sell in 2022 would be expediting their plans due to higher mortgage rates, there still hasn’t been a big surge. We had one little pop when the weekly new-listings count hit 76, but they were back down to 59 this week – and the pendings have risen since.

As we head into the graduation season, and then into the peak vacation season, we might find that the 2022 selling season has already concluded. Maybe we’ll get a surge in July?

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Fed’s MBS Holdings

by | May 9, 2022 | Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market

A couple of readers asked about the MBS runoff:

Mortgage Bankers Association Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni noted there are two items to watch from the Federal Open Market Committee following this month’s two-day meeting. “First, they announced a 50-basis-point increase in the federal funds target,” he said. “This change had been telegraphed clearly in recent speeches. The statement also repeated the language that the committee ‘anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.’ In other words, we are far from done at this point.”

Fratantoni said the second, and perhaps most important news, was regarding the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet.

“As clearly signaled in the March minutes, the FOMC will move to allow $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS to passively roll off the balance sheet each month, gradually reducing these asset holdings from extraordinary levels,” he said. “The runoff will ramp up over the course of three months, which should allow markets to absorb this excess supply.”

Importantly, neither the statement nor the balance sheet plan repeated the goal of returning the balance sheet to all Treasuries, and there was no mention about the potential for active MBS sales. Musing about active sales has likely increased volatility in the MBS market recently, as investors do not know how to interpret the vague signals that had been given.

MBA now forecasts the fed funds target will reach 2.5%, the neutral rate, by the end of 2022.

“MBA is forecasting that mortgage rates are likely to plateau near current levels,” Fratantoni said.

“The financial markets have attempted to price in the impact of Fed actions over this cycle, and they are likely also pricing in the economic slowdown that will result. Once we are past this rate spike and associated volatility, MBA expects that potential homebuyers may be more willing to re-enter the market. Given how much higher rates will remain above the past two years, we do not expect refinance demand to increase any time soon.”

Link to MBA Article

Happy Mother’s Day!

by | May 8, 2022 | About the author

Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers everywhere!

My mom is hanging in there! She is still in the retirement home in San Rafael, and is relatively healthy.  We sent her flowers and chocolate-covered strawberries for Mother’s Day, and she has called me three times to thank me!  I’m not sure if she forgot that she called, or is just really appreciative! Either way, I’ll take it!

Happy Mother’s Day Mom!

The Adjustable Forecast

by | May 7, 2022 | Forecasts | 7 comments

Yesterday, Lawrence Yun predicted that home sales will fall by 9% this year, and home prices will rise by 8%.

At the beginning of the year, his forecast was:

2022 Home Sales Forecast: -2%

2022 Home Price Forecast: +2.8%

2022 Mortgage-Rate Forecast: Rates to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2022.

His forecasts are just guesses, and subject to change!

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NAR calculates purchasing a home is now 55% more expensive than a year ago. These rising mortgage rates and prices hurt affordability, and although wages are improving, Yun says they are “wiped away” due to inflation.

“Wages have risen by 6% from one year ago and that’s good news,” he continued. “But inflation is at 8.5%.”

He estimates inflation will remain elevated for the next several months and that the market will see further monetary policy tightening through a series of rate hikes. Citing a five-month decline in pending home sales, as well as a drop in newly constructed single-family sales, Yun predicts the higher mortgage rates will slow the housing market.

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