by Jim the Realtor | Feb 11, 2025 | About Natalie, Trendy Tuesday
Spending Valentine’s Day in San Diego by Natalie
In honor of Valentine’s Day this Friday, restaurants will be offering special holiday menus and there are plenty of events happening across the county to make the occasion even more memorable!
Restaurants:
VAGA Restaurant & Bar at Alila Marea Beach Resort – Enjoy oceanfront views and a superb dinner at this picturesque restaurant. See here for their Valentine’s Day menu.
Glass Box, Carmel Valley – Located in Skydeck, this spot offers a futuristic and glass-encased setting, plus they’re offering a special Valentine’s Day Menu!
Lilian’s, Rancho Santa Fe – Celebrate on Friday with their 4 course dinner menu or see here for their Galentine’s Day Brunch on Feb 15th!
Wolf in the Woods, Mission Hills – Voted one of the top 100 date night spots in the US, this is a great spot to try for Valentine’s Day! Check their Instagram for updates regarding specials this weekend.
Animae, Downtown – One of the best restaurants in San Diego! See here for their upcoming specials.
Check out this article for more options!
Events & Activities:
Movie at the Pier, Oceanside – On Friday Wall-E will be screened at the Junior Seau Pier Amphitheater near the Oceanside pier. See here for more info!
Hot Air Balloon Ride, Del Mar – Compass Balloons offers private and shared hot air balloon rides out of Del Mar for beautiful coastline views, or head up their Temecula location to fly over the vineyards! Visit their website here.
Paint and Sip, Downtown – Visit Cafe Alma for a fun paint and sip evening. Their Valentine’s Day session is sold out, but they have future ones coming up too! Check it out.
Gondola Rides, San Diego Bay – Take a private ride on a Venetian-style gondola through the bay with chocolates and beverages! Book here.
Spa Day – Who doesn’t love a day at the spa?! San Diego is home to some of the best spas, so pamper yourself and your loved one by spending a day at any of them! La Costa Resort & Spa, The Lodge at Torrey Pines, and Hotel del Coronado are some of my favorites!
Plan a Trip – With Monday being a holiday, this weekend is the perfect time for a romantic getaway. Here are some towns that are perfect for a weekend getaway.
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 11, 2025 | 2025, Inventory, Market Conditions, Market Surge
Bill provides a ton of relevant data and it helps show how the real estate trends reflect the human condition – the same things are happening everywhere:
I’ve been thinking that there will be 15% to 20% more inventory this year, but so far the flow has been subdued between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
NSDCC January Listings:
2024: 242
2025: 251
But Bill has the San Diego YoY inventory change at +12.3%.
The Active Inventory shows the real trend because it reflects if homes are selling or not.
The higher-end is where it’s more stagnant, and with today’s NSDCC median list price being $4,399,000, the Active Inventory will be stacking up quickly.
Bill already has the current SD Active Inventory at +28.8% YoY!
Is the demand picking up the slack? Will more homes for sale mean more sales, like our head cheerleader Lawrence Yun suggests? Hmmm no, at least not yet:
https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-586
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Zillow shows that the fever this year isn’t quite what it has been.
It’s a simplistic graph, but it shows we’re just barely above a neutral market:
Just when mortgage rates have improved slightly and we’re getting into the prime season, it seems like every new listing is $2,000,000+ and very few are really prime properties – which will be the main reason we could get off to a sluggish start. Buyers want the good stuff!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 10, 2025 | Inventory |
Since October, I’ve been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025.
It won’t be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won’t notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be enough demand to pick it all up!
Instead of lathering on about the theory, let’s review an actual real-life example from this weekend.
There was a Compass Private Exclusive that caught the interest of my buyers. On Wednesday we made arrangements to meet there on Sunday for a tour.
By the time we got to Sunday, THREE other new listings hit the open market nearby, and then the Private Exclusive went onto the MLS too (this week I’ll give an 2025 update on the Compass PEs).
We toured all four.
Here’s what we learned:
The environment changed dramatically on August 17th, and more buyers are motivated to attend open houses rather than hire a buyer-agent. But three of the four didn’t do open house, and the one that did sent an assistant who wasn’t try to sell it – they were just there wasting an afternoon at a stranger’s house.
Only two of the four were staged. In a competitive environment, the two that weren’t staged got eliminated quickly. Not only was it harder to imagine what could be done with those, but it also sends the sub-conscious message that the seller and listing agent aren’t that motivated to sell.
If the seller and listing agent don’t take a vested interest in selling the house, then they are relying on the buyer-agent to get the job done. Don’t be surprised if the offers, if any, come in low!
How experienced and competent are those buyer-agents at talking the $1,000/sf talk?
There were 50 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in the past week, and 34 new pendings so somebody is getting lucky. But at what price? The climb in inventory may pause occasionally, but it should be trending steadily higher in the coming weeks. Unless sellers and listing agents are totally prepared for surprises like three new listings nearby and two inches of rain!
Oh, and there will be doomer talk too:
Get Good Help!
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by Jim the Realtor | Feb 9, 2025 | Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Market Surge, Spring Kick, Zillow
I called our local market ‘stable’ the other day.
Zillow doesn’t have us in America’s Top 10, but their 58.3 gets us into the Seller’s-market category which sounds stable enough.
They have slightly increased their 12-month optimism too:
NW Carlsbad – 92008
SE Carlsbad – 92009
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
Carmel Valley – 92130
Local home appreciation in the 2% to 4% range over the next year sounds healthy enough, even if it ends up happening mostly over the next 2-3 months.
The NSDCC inventory is staying in check….so far!
The first Inventory Watch of the spring selling season is tomorrow. Here we go!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 8, 2025 | Where to Move |
None are in San Diego County but a good collection to consider if you are thinking of moving!
https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/11-picture-perfect-california-towns.html
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 7, 2025 | Remodel Projects, Repairs/Improvements
Remodeling? I think it’s a better idea to move!
Renovations are on the rise. As more homeowners are staying put, the need to spruce up their living spaces is gaining more focus.
The 2024 Angi State of Home Spending report released this week details the home improvement projects most Americans invested in last year.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it also confirmed that one generation is investing more money than any other in home renovations, considering their plans don’t include moving anytime soon.
With 54% of boomers who own homes having pledged never to sell their property, it makes sense that they’d want to make the investment.
Additionally, the news comes after Charles Schwab revealed that most folks of the booming generation are hanging on to their assets, including real estate, for the long haul.
When asked, almost half of boomers surveyed for the report (45%) confessed they wanted “to enjoy my money for myself while I’m still alive.”
Evidently, enjoying their money includes making home improvements.
Baby boomers spent 16.8% more on projects than millennials, who spent an average of $12,101 last year. Gen X wasn’t that far behind, spending an average of $11,781, and Gen Z, which primarily rents their living spaces, spent $9,592 last year.
Given the state of the market and the struggle to create more inventory, it makes sense that the report added that 67% of homeowners prefer putting the work into renovating their current home to better meet their needs rather than moving (It should be noted that 55% of homeowners surveyed cited high interest rates as the primary reason for staying put, rather than the lack of available homes).
It looks like that trend will continue in 2025.
Read the full article here:
https://www.realtor.com/advice/home-improvement/boomers-home-renovation-2024-survey/
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 6, 2025 | 2025, North County Coastal, Over List
The local market isn’t at the frenzy level, but can we at least call it stable?
Last month there were 18% of the sales that closed over their list price. There were 41% of the sales that closed for at least $100,000 under their list price. If roughly 60% of the sales are getting close to their list price or over, then I think that feels like a fairly balanced market.
For the last five months in a row, the year-over-year monthly sales have been higher! The average and median pricing look stable too.
NSDCC Average and Median Prices
Once we get past the Super Bowl, the market should really get cooking! Last February, the over-list percentage was 30%, and then March was the high point for 2024 with 44%. I doubt we will hit either one of those again this year, and I’ll just settle for more YoY sales for the sixth month in a row.
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 5, 2025 | Jim's Take on the Market, One-Story |
I’ve suggested that there are two different markets. One-story homes, and everything else.
It’s because older buyers don’t want stairs. Simple enough.
Baby boomers control the destiny of the real estate market, and specifically, the supply of homes for sale. They (we) got here first, and they are sticking around longer than ever before. Thus, the supply of one-story homes for sale is tight, and when they do hit the market, they tend to sell for a premium.
It would be nice to identify the premium so all participants can recognize and implement different standards when valuating a home.
This is a dramatic example, but worthy of discussion.
Look at the similarities of these two homes in NE Carlsbad:
Same street.
Same year built (1984).
Same week found their buyer.
Same week closed escrow.
Both had views.
Both were on a culdesac.
Both sold over their list price.
Both listings started their remarks with the universal, “Nestled”
The two-story home was 2,335sf, and sold for $1,618,000, or $692/sf.
The one-story home was 1,863sf and sold for $1,912,000, or $1,026/sf.
A difference of almost $300,000, on the same street, same week!
Yes, the one-story was a flip so it had the standard lipstick, and its view included a peek of the ocean but it was through the powerlines, plus their towers were in clear sight:
There was an 18% difference in price! And 48% difference in price-per-sf!
In this case, I’ll concede a lipstick bonus, and suggest a standard 10% premium for one-story vs. two-story homes. It could be rising too – it’s not going down, that’s for sure!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 4, 2025 | About Kayla, Trendy Tuesday |
Happy Tuesday everyone!
I’m a big admirer of Iris Apfel, the American Businesswoman and interior designer.
This Queens native was known for her bold style, chunky bangles, and oversized sunglasses. Although she sadly passed away last year, Christie’s in Midtown NYC will present “Unapologetically Iris: The Collection of Iris Apfel” starting this Saturday, February 8th through February 12th. The exhibition will feature over 200 items of fashion, accessories, and design from Ms. Apfel’s personal collection. While the online auction is open for bidding, you can also view the items in person at 20 Rockefeller Center.
The sale offers decorative art pieces and items from Apfel’s homes in Palm Beach and New York, including a carved “Gussy” ostrich-form bar from Italy, circa 1975, estimated to go for $6,000-8,000.
These are my personal favorites from her collection:
– Venetian pale pink glass coupes & stands
– Sunglasses
– Lime green figure of Iris riding a scooter – already at $2,400!!
Enjoy the day and happy shopping! – KK
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 4, 2025 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market |
We started signing new listings in October in anticipation of the market getting off to a fast start early, just like last year. So far, so good:
NSDCC January Action
The previous years are sold listings that went pending in January. In 2025, most of the 126 are still pending and some will fall out. But more will be added too, so we’ll call it even for now.
But tracking about the same as last year is a good sign – last year was red hot in the first quarter.
How are we doing with the six listings in a row?
506 S. Freeman – Sold to cash buyer and closed in two weeks.
11463 Nantucket – Multiple offers and in escrow after first weekend. All contingencies released yesterday.
29482 Vista Valley – Active listing, 12 days on market. A real specialty property. It should sell.
The fourth listing was tenant-occupied, and they just vacated – we’re getting access today.
So instead we plugged in this RB condo for launch last weekend:
15283 Maturin #57 – Three offers, all over the list price. Will go pending today.
We decided to pause this week and launch the next listing on Thursday the 13th. Not because I fear going up against the Super Bowl because it doesn’t start until 3:30pm on Sunday – we’re doing a touch more tune-up to the house. Our next two listings are real trophy properties, stay tuned!
I think we can say that the market is fine, and isn’t showing signs of stalling due to a surge in listings.
