There are concerns that lower pricing will cause recent home buyers to be underwater - and potentially create another bubble to pop. A factor to consider when assessing the current market conditions is how quickly the affluent buyers have taken over the marketplace...
San Jose is ahead of us, and San Francisco is about the same. As long as the Bay Area remains an obvious feeder into the better-valued San Diego-Carlsbad market, we'll be fine.
Yesterday a guy said he wasn't interested in anecdotal evidence and just wanted to see the data. But we were talking about the buyer demand in 2023, of which we have no data yet. In addition, the data we do have doesn't have to repeat itself or be a trend, because...
I've been hoping for 100+ sales per month the rest of the way this year. Currently, the October count is 108, so it should get up to around 120 sales by mid-November. Here are the monthly sales and pricing for 2022: NSDCC Detached-Home Monthly Sales & Pricing,...
Instead of using the median sales price as a gauge, let's look at the history of the median $/sf to help bring the size of the homes into the equation. Thoughts: I remember 2018 and 2019 being fairly flat and a bit of a struggle. Rates had been in the 3% to 4% range...
Last month, the 92009 median sales price declined 14.8% YoY, and was -22% MONTH-OVER-MONTH. Keyboard warriors everywhere will be jumping all over news like this. What really happened? The facts: Last month, there were 52% fewer sales than in September, 2021. The homes...
The over-bidding is winding down to more manageable levels as just 24% of August buyers were willing to pay over the list price. As usual, the $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 range was the most active, where inventory is low and the number of quality homes for sale even...
The latest CPI number is out today, and the over-reaction will put more pressure on mortgage rates. They are probably going to be around the 6% range for the foreseeable future. Let's predict the NSDCC monthly sales count for the rest of the year. Today, we have 411...
I said: 0% appreciation for NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad) in 2023. Zillow says: +1.5% to +1.9% for NSDCC. Goldman Sachs says: -1% for San Diego. Moody's has San Diego County home prices changing –3.65% between now and the end of 2023, and then -2.9% by the end of 2024....
The wildcard on pricing is that every potential seller has sufficient equity to dump on price if needed. Why a seller would give it away when there are so many other alternatives (renting, reverse mortgages, hard-money loans, etc.) is beyond me. Even flipper...
