Where do home prices go from here?

Hopefully, it will be more predictable than it has been lately!

The Fed’s insistence on raising rates just to see if they can tank the economy should keep a ceiling in place. The buyer pool is already limited to only those who can qualify and have big money, and the generational wealth transfer should be very active between now and 2026 when the estate-tax/gift rules go backwards.

But there isn’t much hope for more inventory, and the limited number of homes for sale should keep a pricing floor in place. It should mean that the overall pricing trend stays rangebound for the next few years – which will be BORING!

But it will be best thing that could ever happen.

If the frenzy conditions settle down and buyers and sellers can make sound financial decisions based on facts and logic, it wouldn’t be a bad thing!

The return of seasonality will keep pricing in check too. The graph shows how the median price usually peaks in the middle of each year, and then is flat or glides downward to the next selling season.

The 2020-2022 Covid-Frenzy price trend was just about straight up!


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