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Prelim January Numbers

The late-reporters will add a few extras, but here are the preliminary detached sales numbers for January, 2010:

Town or Area Zip Code Jan. 2009 Jan. 2010
Cardiff 92007 1/$563psf 3/$353psf
NW Carlsbad 92008 4/$274 7/$339
SE Carlsbad 92009 21/$276 24/$263
NE Carlsbad 92010 2/$220 3/$217
SW Carlsbad 92011 8/$262 4/$293
Del Mar 92014 7/$592 6/$482
Encinitas 92024 21/$353 21/$344
La Jolla 92037 14/$865 11/$546
RSF 67+91 7/$507 11/$471
Solana Bch 92075 10/$474 8/$545
S. RB 92127 22/$268 22/$263
Carmel Vly 92130 21/$358 26/$350
Totals 136/$395 146/$357

Here are the SFR stats from the MLS and foreclosureradar in those same zip codes for last month – 24% of the MLS sales were REO resales or short sales:

REO resales on MLS: 21
Short sales on MLS: 14
Trustee sales, REO: 32
Trustee sales, bought by 3rd party: 18
Trustee sales, cancelled: 56

If it weren’t for Del Mar and La Jolla’s cost-per-sf numbers dropping like they did Y-O-Y, the psf numbers would have been closer. As long as the low-inventory environment persists, the stats should look fairly steady.

4Q09 Stats

Local Boy wondered how Carlsbad was holding up – here’s a snapshot of the fourth quarter detached stats for North SD County Coastal region. The area category called ‘High’ is RSF, Del Mar, Solana Beach, and La Jolla. The 2008 stats were based on Oct. 1st to Dec. 18th:

Area/Year New Listings Inputted Closed Sales $$/sf DOM Active listings $$/sf
CBD 08
272
166
$290/sf
69
CBD 09
282
213
$272/sf
58
246
$384/sf
ENC 08
134
53
$402/sf
54
ENC 09
132
74
$369/sf
69
133
$501/sf
CV 08
135
63
$360/sf
62
CV 09
111
87
$338/sf
72
124
$393/sf
High 08
376
84
$679/sf
101
High 09
296
146
$633/sf
122
652
$889/sf

With roughly 10% declines in pricing, sales have increased 28%, 40%, 38%, and 74%, respectfully. It appears there will be some momentum rolling into 2010!

RSF Summer Stats

(Covenant in orange on map, click twice)

Smithers wanted to know more about the whopping 25 detached closings in RSF over the summer.  There was a late-reported #26, but upon further examination one of the 25 was in Cielo, but an Escondido zip and school district, so let’s leave that one out (it was 7,091 sf for $2,175,000).

20% down payment = 2

25% down payment = 1

30%-49% down payment = 6

50%-plus down payment = 3

All-cash purchases = 13 of 25!

****************************************

Median sales price is $2,100,000

Average $/sf = $475/sf

DOM = 119

10 of 25 sales UNDER $2,000,000

21 of 25 sales UNDER $3,000,000

****************************************

7 sales in the Covenant

7 sales in Fairbanks Ranch

2 sales in RSF Farms

2 sales in Cielo

2 sales in the Bridges

****************************************

198 of 353 active listings are OVER $3 million, with list prices averaging $849/sf.

23 sales this year OVER $3 million, with a average of $564/sf. (about 3 sales per month)

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Summer Wrap-Up

There will be some late-reporting, but the sales already look decent compared to last year – 13 out of 23 areas had an increase in detached sales, and all but one zip had prices decline – which we agree is a good thing too. If there were more REOs to sell, the numbers would look even better!

Detached Sales, June 1 through August 31

Town or Area Zip Code Sales 08/09 $$/sf 08/09
Cardiff 92007
14/12
$681/$491
Carlsbad NW 92008
42/32
$314/$321
Carlsbad SE 92009
116/113
$289/$260
Carlsbad NE 92010
26/37
$251/$247
Carlsbad SW 92011
52/61
$333/$294
Del Mar 92014
30/30
$1,030/$635
Encinitas 92024
87/109
$397/$361
La Jolla 92037
51/73
$739/$646
Oceanside all
444/399
$208/$199
Poway 92064
105/126
$301/$268
RSF both
39/25
$601/$475
San Marcos N 92069
100/97
$205/$183
Solana Beach 92075
21/18
$595/$502
San Marcos S 92078
110/108
$213/$197
Vista all
233/245
$205/$180
Sorrento 92121
8/10
$306/$288
West RB 92127
105/110
$292/$267
RB 92128
115/134
$284/$272
RP 92129
97/89
$289/$268
Carmel Valley 92130
129/112
$366/$339
Scripps Rch 92131
67/92
$301/$276
DT Condos 92101
190/216
$448/$404
SD County all
5,491/5,701
$267/$232

Rancho Santa Fe keeps levitating – there has been 443 total detached listings entered onto the MLS this year, and currently there are 351 actives. To close only 25 houses all summer is mind-boggling, especially when there are hundreds of agents working the market.

On the other hand, it was a great summer for a few areas, here are Y-O-Y sales:

Area % diff in Summer Sales
Poway +20%
Encinitas +24%
Scripps +37%
92010 +42%
La Jolla +43%

In Del Mar last year the pricing got skewed from John Moores’ two-story, 1,672sf oceanfront beach house selling for $15.9 million ($9510/sf).

June Sales (+Actives)

The prime-time selling season runs from Super Bowl Sunday to the Fourth of July. How has your area been doing?

We should start seeing some of the unsuccessful sellers figure it out, and either cancel their listing, or lower their price over the next 30-45 days.

Here are the active detached listings for each area, the percentage of them that have been on the market for 90 days or more, the June Y-O-Y closings, and the change percentage in sales:

Town or Area Zip Code ACT %90+ SOLD June 08/09 % chg.
Cardiff 92007 45 38%
5/2
-60%
Carlsbad NW 92008 69 45%
15/13
-13%
Carlsbad SE 92009 133 29%
35/39
+11%
Carlsbad NE 92010 37 38%
8/15
+88%
Carlsbad SW 92011 95 39%
17/13
-24%
Del Mar 92014 141 70%
10/12
+20%
Encinitas 92024 190 68%
37/36
-5%
La Jolla 92037 293 48%
15/20
+33%
O-side W. 92054 68 21%
31/20
-35%
O-side S. 92056 63 20%
48/50
+4%
O-side N. 92057 95 28%
48/45
-6%
Poway 92064 120 52%
36/42
+17%
RSF both 345 62%
12/4
-67%
San Mrcs N. 92069 51 20%
31/28
-10%
San Mrcs S. 92078 80 26%
41/47
+15%
Solana Bch 92075 82 32%
5/7
+40%
Vista S. 92081 50 16%
24/20
-17%
Vista M. 92083 33 13%
20/29
+45%
Vista N. 92084 82 38%
22/30
+36%
Sorrento 92121 7 14%
4/5
25%
West RB 92127 164 74%
40/35
-13%
RB 92128 86 26%
40/44
+10%
RP 92129 48 13%
30/32
+7%
Carmel Vly 92130 217 75%
39/31
-21%
Scripps Rch 92131 71 20%
19/30
+58%

In bold: Triple-digit active listings, with more than half of those on the market for more than 90 days, and double-digit drop in Y-O-Y sales (beware!)

In italics:Actives = 10x last month’s solds (beware!)

Look at Rancho Santa Fe: 345 actives, and four sales last month! 86-month inventory!

‘Hotness’ Factor

The market has been hot lately because the inventory is low.  There are only 5,880 detached, and 3,043 attached active listings in the MLS – about 38% of what it was in September 2007.

Waiting buyers are frustrated and should be jumping at new product – how are the June listings faring?

This is the chart of all the detached listings that came on the MLS in June, and the number that have gone pending.  If the market is hot, and realtors price them within 5-10% of being right, we should see a third or half of new listings selling:

Town or Area Zip Code June Listings # Found Buyers Ratio
Vista all
107
56
1.91
San Marcos both
88
45
1.95
Oceanside all
165
68
2.43

Those towns are hot – there are plenty of buyers waiting, and close to half of every house listed sells right away. What about the ‘tonier’ parts of town?

Town or Area Zip Code June Listings # Found Buyers Ratio
Encinitas 92024
61
13
4.69
Carlsbad all
128
26
4.92
Carmel Vly 92130
91
13
7.0
Solana Bch 92075
18
2
9.0
La Jolla 92037
66
5
13.2
Del Mar 92014
18
0
inf
RSF both
42
0
inf

Houses stand the best chance of selling when new on the market, yet SIXTY new listings have come on the MLS in Del Mar and Rancho Santa Fe, and NOT ONE of them have found a buyer?

May Sales & Cost/SF

These are the preliminary numbers of detached home sales, and cost-per-sf for May. While there are some signs of relative stability, all the hub-bub about the market improving hasn’t translated down to sales increasing yet – or cost-per-sf:

Town or Area Zip Code May 2008 May 2009
Cardiff 92007 3 / $657 4 / $372
Carlsbad NW 92008 19/$347 13/$319
Carlsbad SE 92009 40/$295 33/$254
Carlsbad NE 92010 11/$252 12/$245
Carlsbad SW 92011 14/$326 16/$274
Del Mar 92014 8/$522 14/$998
Encinitas 92024 36/$403 22/$379
La Jolla 92037 22/$1045 15/$710
Oceanside all 125/$231 130/$183
Poway 92064 30/$292 27/$251
RSF both 19/$537 13/$427
San Marcos N 92069 37/$213 24/$169
San Marcos S 92078 31/$233 32/$200
Solana Bch 92075 10/$805 7/$565  
Vista all 61/$204 84/$171
Sorrento 92121 5/$292 3/$288
West RB 92127 43/$270 34/$261
East RB 92128 36/$283 43/$271
Rancho Pen 92129 38/$291 26/$267
Carmel Vly 92130 44/$355 29/$324
Scripps Rch 92131 28/$290 13/$278
All SD All Zip 1,723/$283 1,724/$224

That’s a 21% decrease in cost-per-sf since last May.

April Sales

Here are the number of detached sales from the MLS, and average dollars-per-square-foot for April, 2005, 2008, and 2009.

WHICH AREA IS THE BEST BUY TODAY, AND WHY?

The person with the best answer will receive four tickets to tomorrow night’s Padres game vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks – Jake Peavy is scheduled to pitch!

Town or Area Zip Code April Sales April ’05 ’08 ’09 $/sf
Cardiff 92007 7, 7, 8 $760, $453, $529
Carlsbad NW 92008 37, 14, 10 $359 $323 $298
Carlsbad SE 92009 64, 23, 35 $356 $292 $264
Carlsbad NE 92010 x, 13, 3 $X $281 $272
Carlsbad SW 92011 x, 14, 20 $X $341 $297
Encinitas 92024 53, 37, 19 $470 $408 $410
La Jolla 92037 36, 20, 16 $734 $809 $688
Oceanside W 92054 60, 19, 23 $407 $279 $244
Oceanside SE 92056 66, 37, 35 $311 $227 $189
Oceanside NE 92057 68, 64, 56 $289 $202 $165
Poway 92064 43, 33, 23 $360 $310 $261
RSF 67&91 22, 11, 16 $545 $552 $451
San Marcos N 92069 58, 24, 26 $306 $207 $181
Solana Bch 92075 8, 8, 2 $460 $587 $592
San Marcos S 92078 41, 41, 38 $308 $227 $197
Vista S. 92081 44, 13, 17 $301 $238 $190
Vista E 92083 28, 11, 31 $326 $209 $162
Vista N 92084 35, 17, 35 $321 $200 $160
DT condos 92101 102, 59, 64 $591 $508 $379
Sorrento 92121 4, 5, 3 $330 $279 $319
West RB 92127 29, 28, 21 $334 $291 $251
East RB 92128 58, 30, 28 $329 $281 $269
Rancho Pensq. 92129 56, 24, 19 $331 $276 $249
Carmel Valley 92130 43, 30, 25 $403 $372 $348
Scripps Ranch 92131 41, 23, 19 $335 $281 $268

There’s no perfect answer – but extra credit for snark!

(Carlsbad’s 92008 and 92009 were split into four zip codes after 2005)

March Sales

In today’s Union-Tribune they quote nine different people about the real estate market, and the reports are remarkably similar.   Let’s give them some credit, at least they are getting closer to the truth – the lower end is hot, and the higher end is not:

San Diego County home prices remained virtually flat in March for the third straight month, with sales of entry-level homes the strongest, in the clearest sign yet that at least the market’s bottom rung may have stabilized.

The county’s median price was $285,000, unchanged from February and up $5,000 from January, MDA DataQuick reported yesterday. Sales skyrocketed to 3,020, up 43 percent from a year ago; it was the biggest increase for any March in five years.

Local buying has been dominated by low-priced foreclosure homes, which represented 51.1 percent of all resales last month, DataQuick said. It was the fourth month in a row that more than half of resales were foreclosure properties.

Prices on those discounted properties are clearly attracting heightened interest from first-time buyers and investors.   Agents such as Calvin Goad report multiple bids, often above the asking price. He recently drew nine offers on a $384,000 home in two days, with some over the $400,000 mark.

“Most of those buyers have been hanging on, trying to get the incredible deal, and the incredible deal is gone now – it was a couple months ago,” Goad said.

The only thing a stable median price might mean is that there could be more higher-end sellers who are starting to cave and actually selling their home, which would help balance the midpoint. 

Here is a link to the article:

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/apr/16/1n16housing235122-home-prices-county-still-flat-sa/

They didn’t get my quote right though.  There were 55 houses listed for sale in Rancho Santa Fe in March, and currently there are 327 active listings.

 

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