Here are the number of detached sales from the MLS, and average dollars-per-square-foot for April, 2005, 2008, and 2009.
WHICH AREA IS THE BEST BUY TODAY, AND WHY?
The person with the best answer will receive four tickets to tomorrow night’s Padres game vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks – Jake Peavy is scheduled to pitch!
| Town or Area | Zip Code | April Sales | April ’05 ’08 ’09 $/sf |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 7, 7, 8 | $760, $453, $529 |
| Carlsbad NW | 92008 | 37, 14, 10 | $359 $323 $298 |
| Carlsbad SE | 92009 | 64, 23, 35 | $356 $292 $264 |
| Carlsbad NE | 92010 | x, 13, 3 | $X $281 $272 |
| Carlsbad SW | 92011 | x, 14, 20 | $X $341 $297 |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 53, 37, 19 | $470 $408 $410 |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 36, 20, 16 | $734 $809 $688 |
| Oceanside W | 92054 | 60, 19, 23 | $407 $279 $244 |
| Oceanside SE | 92056 | 66, 37, 35 | $311 $227 $189 |
| Oceanside NE | 92057 | 68, 64, 56 | $289 $202 $165 |
| Poway | 92064 | 43, 33, 23 | $360 $310 $261 |
| RSF | 67&91 | 22, 11, 16 | $545 $552 $451 |
| San Marcos N | 92069 | 58, 24, 26 | $306 $207 $181 |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 8, 8, 2 | $460 $587 $592 |
| San Marcos S | 92078 | 41, 41, 38 | $308 $227 $197 |
| Vista S. | 92081 | 44, 13, 17 | $301 $238 $190 |
| Vista E | 92083 | 28, 11, 31 | $326 $209 $162 |
| Vista N | 92084 | 35, 17, 35 | $321 $200 $160 |
| DT condos | 92101 | 102, 59, 64 | $591 $508 $379 |
| Sorrento | 92121 | 4, 5, 3 | $330 $279 $319 |
| West RB | 92127 | 29, 28, 21 | $334 $291 $251 |
| East RB | 92128 | 58, 30, 28 | $329 $281 $269 |
| Rancho Pensq. | 92129 | 56, 24, 19 | $331 $276 $249 |
| Carmel Valley | 92130 | 43, 30, 25 | $403 $372 $348 |
| Scripps Ranch | 92131 | 41, 23, 19 | $335 $281 $268 |
There’s no perfect answer – but extra credit for snark!
(Carlsbad’s 92008 and 92009 were split into four zip codes after 2005)
The best area to buy is anywhere along the coast. Because we all know the coast is immune and prices will only go up.
I’ll bite. I’m going to say Vista South because the psf is reasonable and the houses in the area are pretty nice.
Any listing, that is, ANY listing that Jim is selling:)
ps I’m in Seattle so you can give my winnings to 2nd place:)
Encinitas- Although the ppsf fell less (-12%) then other coastal communities since 05, the price bottomed in 08 and has increased by $2 psf in 09. Indicating a stabilizing Encinitas market.
Not to mention, I have been renting in Encinitas for a year now and will be buying here in the next 3-4 months becuase in all my time here we have been saranaded by zero ICE CREME TRUCKS.
Detroit.
P.S. I forgot to mention, in regards to Encinitas, there is less inventory available as well and zeor, count em, zero Ice Creme Trucks.
I’m going to go with any of the Carlsbad zips. Assuming A) buyers are commuting into San Diego daily B) Caltrans hasn’t done anything about the world of suck created by the single exit lane from the 405 N onto the 78 Eastbound. (I haven’t been down there in a while…)
Logic: if you use Vista N as your most affordable choice, you’ll pay approx a 65% premium to get into the same size house in Carlsbad SE, which gives you A) likely a 30 min reduction in rush hour commute times (possibly more) B) better schools and a location with more marquee value.
Whether those things are worth it to a given buyer is the question. Oceanside W would be a secondary choice, especially SW where you have a chance of getting home via surface streets when the 405 is particularly heinous.
Art – they did fix the I-5 exit to 78 eastbound, by adding a second lane! A minor change, but makes a world of difference.
Best Buy Today = Scripps Ranch, because that’s where I want to live. It’s close to my work, easy access to the beach, good schools for my kids and low crime.
The biggest drops are in areas I wouldn’t want to live in. The smallest drops are in places I can’t afford, so the middle ground makes the most sense for an owner/occupant in my world (Carlsbad, Poway, RB, Rancho PQ)
Speaking only financially, I’d invest in a mid-level neighborhood like the ones I listed above. I don’t want the hassles of being a slumlord, so I’d avoid the cheapest areas; the high-end neighborhoods have longer vacancy periods between renters and vacancy kills the profitability of a property pretty quickly. Downtown is the worst. With all that inventory coming online, it’s got another drop coming.
Hah…I just realized I put in 405 instead of 5. Clearly, I’ve been in LA too long 😉
Good news on them adding a second exit lane, when I lived in Oceanside a few years back that one exit would jam up the 5 all the way back to RSF during rush hour. Getting to points North was bad enough just surviving the 805/5 merge, then you got a second whammy coming up on the 78.
San Marcos South at $197 ppsf. It is across the street from Carlsbad and the same house is about $200,000 less if you can let go of zip code pride. Your kids go to the same schools as the kids in Carlsbad and pay similar Mello Roos unless you are in SEH they are higher.
However having looked to buy for the last 2 years April is the last month I would buy a house in this market. Prices always seem to stabilize and then tank 6 months later. I would be interested to see these numbers for November 05 07 09.
Oceanside NE. While the price fall has been among the higest, the number of sales are soaring for this year. That makes the market there hot. So it has great prospects.
My real answer: RSF. Because that price per sq ft is WELL worth the price differential over those other areas (except maybe Olivenhain).
My Bubbleinfo.com sheep answer: NONE OF THE ABOVE. All are too expensive. Trick question.
If one looks at the ratios of ’09 prices vs ’05 we see this progressive list illustrating the areas that have lost the most to the least. Then considering desireability and keeping coastal as a prime consideration one can go up the list and see S. Vista (Shadowridge) looking good but Cardiff meets the most criteria, low and coastal. Cardiff’s small numbers cause an aberration so going further we see Carlsbad SE 92009 meeting the best criteria for a good deal. Nice location, coastal and dropped the most from the ’05 high.
So percentage wise and adding coastal and San Dieguito school district, Carlsbad SE is the best buy for the moment.
Vista E 49.69%
Vista N 49.84%
Oceanside NE 57.09%
San Marcos N 59.15%
Oceanside W 59.95%
Oceanside SE 60.77%
Vista S. 63.12%
San Marcos S 63.96%
DT condos 64.13%
Cardiff 69.61%
Poway 72.50%
Carlsbad SE 74.16%
West RB 75.15%
Rancho Pensq. 75.23%
Scripps Ranch 80.00%
East RB 81.76%
RSF 82.75%
Carlsbad NW 83.01%
Carmel Valley 86.35%
Encinitas 87.23%
La Jolla 93.73%
Sorrento 96.67%
Solana Bch 128.70%
Carlsbad NE #VALUE!
Carlsbad SW #VALUE!
Thanks for the work, REB.
Let’s note that Solana Beach had a whopping TWO closings last month, both under $1 million. We had said previously that SB had blanked in March – but thanks to late-reporting, there were two SB closings in March as well.
Only 88 active listings/2 sales per month = 44 months inventory, but the prices are holding well! 😉
REB is on the right track in highlighting the aberrant stats, and comes close with Cardiff, but the correct answer is Solana Beach. The median ppf will surely drop with each new ’09 sale.
However, one must remain vigilant. The cougars in SB are tightening up their droopy shag carpets, bronzing their plumbing, and lowballing the age of their recently remodeled anterooms in a desperate attempt to attract young, naive prey.
They’re probably fudging their real-estate descriptions, too.
I’m going to say downtown condos… after those Vantage Pointe units flood the market this weekend you should be able to pick up a fabulously decked out place for cheap. Or that would be the case if real estate operated in logical parameters.
I used to live in SE Carlsbad. It is a very nice area indeed. I prefer a smaller city with less through traffic however and better schools – Encinitas =P
A couple thoughts for REB.
Vista Shadowridge is only an option if your kids don’t need to go to public school. We have lived in the area. It is beautiful, but if your kids speak English they will be in the minority.
Cardiff-honestly… who wouldn’t want to live there? It is an awesome town but you gotta have some cash.
92009 is half San Dieguito school district and half San Marcos school district. The coastal part you are talking about according to Redfin is more like $310-$350 sq ft. The San Marcos school district part of 92009 is around $264.
Part of 92009 is actually Carlsbad school district.
The best place to buy right now is in your imagination.
There, the prices never go down and equity always increases. You own a Ferarri there and your girlfriend is an undersexed magazine model. There, you own a massive pad overlooking LaJolla point and you have no mortgage.
Sunshine, rainbows, and charts to the up and right!
http://fc06.deviantart.com/fs30/f/2008/125/9/c/Spongebob__Imagination_by_kssael.png
Oh, and don’t forget the CAHLUMS!
Sorry, that meant to say oversexed magazine model. Mine came from Playboy.
Hey, thanks for including 92121. Much appreciated!
92037 without a doubt. When 9826 La Jolla Farms Way can appreciate from $1.2m to $32m in ten years then in the next ten years it will be worth $854 million.
Anywhere in so. california because lawrence yun said real estate only goes up.
The best area to buy is Carlsbad. The worst place to buy is Carmel Valley. Carmel Valley needs to drop another 25%.
nowhere. anywhere you buy now, you will lose more than 20% in 3 years.
Carlsbad is back to approximately 2003 prices now. Carmel Valley is still asking about 2005 prices except short sales that are asking about $275/sq-ft (lots of it in Lago Di Grata Circle).
The prices jump a lot from 2003 to 2005, therefore Carmel Valley is not worth buying right now.
Sorry to threadjack a bit, but here’s an article in today’s LA Times about the Victorville houses that were torn down:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-demolish5-2009may05,0,4930126.story
KTLA channel 5 in LA also did a story with a reporter standing in front of the last house to be torn down (KTLA is owned by the same company as the LA Times):
http://www.latimes.com/video/?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=3725145
The article was the top story in the print editions, with the photograph being front and center, and is also currently the second most e-mailed one on it’s website. No mention of a second demolition in Temecula or San Jacinto.
Carlsbad NE (92010) because of the following reasons:
1) The volume of transactions is healthier than the rest of Carlsbad (i.e. inventory turn-over)
2) Recent detached sold prices are relatively affordable and don’t require jumbo mortgages at an average of $626K for homes built since 2000.
3) There are more pending listings than active
4) It’s Carlsbad with very decent schools, hwy access, parks, low crime rate, etc.
5) It’s a mid-range buy for coastal property that’s great for home ownership and a safe bet for investors.
In forecasting Economics if you just follow the trend you’re going to be right more often than wrong. That’s where the quote “The trend is your friend” comes from.
According to the figures presented predicting that houses will continue to lose value is most likely to be correct.
“My Bubbleinfo.com sheep answer: NONE OF THE ABOVE. All are too expensive. Trick question.”
I vote for Aztec as the winner!
PropertySearch,
Yes I agree, Shadowridge is nice if kids aren’t an issue.
Also I suppose SE Carlsbad isn’t technically coastal (mostly east of El Camino Real) but its in Carlsbad which is and its certainly more “coastal” that say, Poway.
I’d say if one could get under $300sf and still be in the south part of SE Carlsbad to get in the San Dieguito district they would have the good deal Jim asked about. I’ve seen several folks pay extra just to be across the line in the SD district instead of Carlsbad or San Marcos.
Are La Jolla or RSF better? Sure, but I was just trying to ID the best bang for the buck at the current time.
The best place to buy today: The Fed window.
I hear you can rent money for nothing.
Houses? There is no good place to buy.
High-end sales resort to auction
Putting a home up for bid in a slow market can hurry along a sale.
By Beth Potter
The Denver Post
Posted: 05/03/2009 12:30:00 AM MDT
VAIL — As owners of high-end mountain homes try to make their properties stand out in a crowded market, an increasing number are going the auction route.
Once considered an option of last resort, the renewed interest in auctions has real estate offices that previously focused on more traditional sales methods adding it to their lineups.
Link: http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_12277599
Check out the last picture…
1926 Cambridge Ave, Cardiff by the Sea, CA
Is that Martin Sheen or a girl? Does He/She come with the house or do you have to buy the 2500 sq ft “yard” to get the extra troll?
Cruiser and Robert had the best snark-infested answers, but given that they are both out-of-town…..
The winner is REB! The best deal today would be to buy a house in the San Dieguito School District-portion of 2009 at the average of $264/sf.
A big portion of 92009 is NOT in SD schools. Both Carlsbad and San Marcos districts (as was pointed out correctly) inhabit 92009, and have a drag on the ppsf as a result.
All were great observations though!
Other comments on the comments:
4. stevea2z – Though no ice cream trucks in Encinitas, their sales worry me, steady drop-off.
5. Detroit is worth a look.
9. because that’s where I want to live. Good answer!
11. 92078 has been strong, in spite of the odds. Agree about the end-of-year drop-off, and will look into the stats.
12. 92057 is right there with 92083 and 92084 as price leaders! $160-ish/sf!
13. My Bubbleinfo.com sheep answer: NONE OF THE ABOVE. All are too expensive. Trick question. The best snark answer.
16. Renter Pete described SB perfectly.
28. nowhere. anywhere you buy now, you will lose more than 20% in 3 years. august is going to be wrong about this answer, and we’ll follow up in three years to prove it. It might be in the minority, but areas that come to mind include the previously-mentioned 92057, 92083, and 92084, plus parts of older Carlsbad and any area with one-story homes.
31. One thing not obvious here is that some Oceanside kids go to school in 92010. Not as pristine as you might think – a grade-school kid got knocked out the other day in a fight on the playground. Elementary school!
37. The agent has a great sense of humor to include a photo from Apocalypse Now on a listing he’s had for a year. He needs to go up the river for the seller!
REB – I have to get you the tickets tomorrow – contact me!!
Local Boy – get in touch too, I need to get you tickets!
Jim,
Thank you but I only wanted to contribute good information. I’m not a baseball fan so please donate to your favorite charity or to the second best answer.
Thanks again and keep up the good work!
REB
Jim,
Next time add pre-bubble prices for a true value comparison. Showing peak vs. current pricing lends itself to obvious anchoring bias, which seems to be rampant in CV these days.
More threadjacking by me: I just noticed on one of the YouTube videos of the Victorville tear down that the blogger who said the demo crew was going to tear down 20 houses in Temecula said they were owned by a DIFFERENT bank. So maybe some more spelunking around there is needed. Anybody know of a project that is half built and boarded up in Temecula? I know of one in the city of Riverside that qualifies, Riverwalk Vista (corner of La Sierra and Indiana, across from the La Sierra Metrolink station), but that’s quite a distance to Temecula, so that ain’t it.
Just what I need, more spelunking…..
The tax rolls are much harder to search, so an insider tip would be appreciated, if anyone hears about it.
How about if I ask if anyone wants the Padres tickets for Wednesday night – anyone???
Sorry, only in my imaginary world do I have time on Wednesday.
BTW, in my imaginary world, we’re best buds.
Chuck
And nobody bothered to cross reference Megan’s Law website?
The answer is Victorville. They’re not making houses any more – in fact they’re tearing them down. This means that prices can only go up.
sorry, a little late to the game.
just want to point out how that carmel valley is well immuned.
in ’05 the 4S discount was 20% compared to carmel valley. in ’09 the 4S discount is now pushing 30%.
clearly carmel valley is retaining value that much better… =) time to wait in line for a chance at those once in a life time pardee homes…
Everyone just needs to find their little Nirvana at the right time, at a price they can afford so they can ride the storm out. I have owned in 92008, 92009, 92011 and now live in 92084. Value, space, peace and quiet. 2008 2 blocks from the water was great in my 20’s when I could tolerate the beach culture and noise. 92011(Aviara) killer starter home for our family, new was under 300k. Doubled…sold. Got to know my neighbors VERY well there with 7000 sq ft lot. 92009, Rancho Carillo, lived there 2 years. Bought at 523k, sold for 710k. Free money. Took my free monies and found a personal Nirvana. But I’m too far on a post work, school night with homework to go to Petco Jim! No one wanted to live in Carlsbad when I first bough there in ’89 and no one wanted to live in Aviara when I bought there when it was new. I’m like a salmon, swimming upstream , against the flow. I used to play golf at Aviara for 25 bux! The hotel was a deserted carcass that a Japanese invested bailed on b4 the Four Seasons invested. The golf course bar was so deserted that the bartender used to let me bring my black lab IN and served me beers for 2 bux! Those were the days!
Late to the game as well, but I’m going to plug an area that Jim never covers, and I’m not sure why – South Escondido – 92025 or 92029. In my (humble/biased) opinion, best value for the dollar in SD County. We live on Mary Lane, where you can get 1 to 2 acres of land (west facing sunset views), a single story California ranch and a very solid school district (LR Green elementary one of the best in SD county) for in the 500s or less (@$200/sq ft). We’re less than a mile from Kit Carson Park and 2 miles from tons of trails at Lake Hodges. From our house, we can even see Old Coach Trail in Poway, where some of the most expensive real estate in all of SD county is located.
If you hate the notion of keeping up with the Jonses’, tract housing, HOAs, Mello Roos, restrictions on what you can and can’t do and like space from your neighbor, check this area out. Don’t believe the stereotypes about Escondido being crime ridden and dangerous. At first my wife refused to look in Escondido because of the old stereotypes, but after I showed her a few neighborhoods, she saw the prices and was sold immediately.
Left today by a reader on a diferent post further back:
What is it that makes LCV so bulletproof? It’s been virtually immune to the real estate meltdown. At any time in the past few years, it seems there’s usually less than 1% of the 1,073 houses in the community for sale, and they’re not coming down on their bubble inflated prices. Where do these people work that they’re not impacted by all the job losses? Does every doctor and lawyer in the county live there, or the CEOs of all the companies that are laying off employees? Other communities like Carmel Valley, Bressi Ranch, 4S Ranch, etc., are getting hammered, but for some magical reason LCV is untouchable. What gives?
Sister works in CV school, said that applications for free/reduced lunches used to be maybe 0-1 per month, lately about 3-4 PER WEEK, this just at one relatively small school.
WHICH AREA IS THE BEST BUY TODAY, AND WHY?…Where ever Jim “My Realtor” Tells me to Buy…
Thanks, Jim. I was the poster you referenced in item 50. My wife has been a big fan of yours for over a year and got me onboard. We have been watching LCV for the right house and waiting for the right jumping point for more than 3 years. Looks like the cat’s out of the bag with your declaration of a winner in item 38. The trick is how to shoehorn your way into “Beverly Hills meets Mayberry.”
For clarification what is LCV?
Lower Chula Vista
Lower Carmel Valley
La Costa Valley
or???
Sometimes these abbreviations could use a little extra explanation inserted occasionally.
For example.
SD (San Diego)
SD (San Dieguito)
SD (Secure Digital)
SD (Shadowridge)
@ KP Springfield,
Zip Codes 92025 / 92029
57 sex offenders
2 in violation of their registration requirements
5 Sex Offenders living within 2 miles of LR Green Elementary
Well, for me, LCV is La Costa Valley the neighborhood; specifically that portion north of Calle Barcelona (where the Valley Club is located), bordered by El Camino Real on the west and Rancho Santa Fe on the east, but not beyond the ECC (El Camino Creek) school district.
KP Springfield,
I drove by the short sale on Chamberlain this weekend, right off Mary Lane – what a nice neighborhood. I was really impressed, and totally agree with you about the zip. I’ve since added 92025 to my automated searches. Too bad that property was a short sale and already had 6 offers!
3 Clicks – Point taken, but if they’re only 2 miles from LR Green, they could potentially be less than 5 miles from Poway/RB elementary schools. Sex offenders can strike anywhere at any time regardless of where they live.
ChrisG – Chamberlain is primo location. Good luck in your search!
KP, true, true – I don’t like sex offenders and I’d like to keep them behind bars forever. Yikes, their are eight in 92024 and one lives 2.5 miles away.