Local Boy wondered how Carlsbad was holding up – here’s a snapshot of the fourth quarter detached stats for North SD County Coastal region. The area category called ‘High’ is RSF, Del Mar, Solana Beach, and La Jolla. The 2008 stats were based on Oct. 1st to Dec. 18th:
| Area/Year | New Listings Inputted | Closed Sales | $$/sf | DOM | Active listings | $$/sf |
| CBD 08 | $290/sf | |||||
| CBD 09 | $272/sf | $384/sf | ||||
| ENC 08 | $402/sf | |||||
| ENC 09 | $369/sf | $501/sf | ||||
| CV 08 | $360/sf | |||||
| CV 09 | $338/sf | $393/sf | ||||
| High 08 | $679/sf | |||||
| High 09 | $633/sf | $889/sf |
With roughly 10% declines in pricing, sales have increased 28%, 40%, 38%, and 74%, respectfully. It appears there will be some momentum rolling into 2010!
In 4Q of 2008, the stock market was falling off a cliff. Could that explain the lower number of 2008 house transactions?
“With roughly 10% declines in pricing, sales have increased 28%, 40%, 38%, and 74%, respectfully. It appears there will be some momentum rolling into 2010!”
Jim, you can always refer to this quote next time someone accuses you of being a housing cheerleader or suggests your paycheck depends on home values and government bailouts.
As for the data, I know I called out Carlsbad as being in a freefall. These numbers may not support that yet, but your video on Goldstone showing $150k – $200k price differentials I believe is a sign of things to come in 2010.
OFF TOPIC:
From the Naked Capitalism.
This is a testament to the fact that Obama’s administration is an extension of Bush’s. Basically the Supreme Court destroyed civil liberties in this country last week and no MSM noticed it. Welcome to the land of freedom and liberty.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/supreme-court-guts-due-process-protection.html
Jim, what are your thoughts on the home buyers credit, and do you think that has any impact on things? Do you think it has ‘pulled forward’ any buyers?
Did you get a feeling that many were rushing to close in October before it was a done deal that they were going to extend it?
What strikes me on these stats is the complete disconnect between SOLD $/sf and ACTIVE $/sf. For 3 out of the 4 – it’s more than $100/sf difference. (Over $200/sf in the High end areas.)
This should be presented to all the sellers… If they want to sell, they have to price it appropriately.
Thanks Jim–With 3-4 mos supply of inventory (other than the High) and 60 DOM average–that is hardly a freefall–sellers seem to be pricing according to demand.
I remember all the posts last year saying CV will not take a hit.
I meant posts from more than a few readers and not from JTR.
With falling prices, we should expect increased transaction volume – at least according to classical economic theory.
Essentially there are more buyers as prices fall – which makes sense doesn’t it?
On the other hand falling prices wouldn’t encourage many organic sellers to list their home since they are either under water (and don’t want to bring cash to closing) or want to wait for the paper gain they once had at the peak to return (at least that’s how many feel about it).
I’ve been watching CV and neighboring areas, and these are pretty much the numbers I’ve been expecting. A 10% decrease from 08 to 09, slower than the drops since 06. We’re currently above the record lows by about 5%, no telling if it will double dip or stay at this level.
Just FYI wawawa’s spam link makes random things up about the Constitution for no apparent reason. It’s so obviously wrong that it must be spoof written by someone from the far right to discredit the far left. For example, it claims that torture is a capital crime according to the Constitution. It also makes things up about what happened in recent court rulings. Oh, the internet.
dafox,
Personally I saw no impact on my business from the homebuyer tax credit. There better not be anybody in NSDC Coastal that bought because of it, and if there were, hopefully their agent talked some sense into them.
It’s a feel-good benefit, a sweetener.
Did it pull demand forward? I think it may have caused a few more people to consider buying, but mild in comparison to the violent impact the actual market has on people.
You can read about the real estate market on blogs, search for homes on a million websites, and dream about buying st the bottom.
But once you start making offers, the reality clobbers you like a 400-lb. linebacker. To buy you’ll have to out-maneuveur the other buyers, endure wranging with the listing agent and sellers, live with a house that needs $50,000 in repairs, and overpay for it, at least in your mind.
Or keep waiting.
Nail on the head Jim! Those econo bloggers need to get off their pc’s and see what it’s really like out there.