Partial Ownership

Here’s a local sample of the new whiz-bang partial ownership craze.

The spec builder tried to sell this for three years before taking this $8.25M cash deal.  The same seller/Compass agent has the listing now, on behalf of the new owners:

ABOUT THIS HOME

This is multi-tasking, La Jolla style: Catch the perfect sunset as you splash in the ocean waves or sip a cool drink in the rooftop saltwater pool. The surf breaks just steps from this 3-bedroom, 4½ bath custom home.

Everything is designed to make the most of the Pacific views. Vanishing window walls transform indoor spaces into open-air living at its finest. The open plan living space has a gas fireplace and a sleek kitchen with a curved island and a space for formal dining.

Exotic materials and touchable textures are used throughout the home, including a back-lit Brazilian granite steam room.

The master suite has a luxurious ensuite with double sinks, soaking tub and walk-in shower. A vanishing window wall opens to a private balcony and stunning ocean views.

Enjoy the rooftop infinity pool area with its 8-person spa and adjoining lounge area with wet bar. Restock the bar from the home’s wine room. And when you’re ready to leave this Pacific paradise, there’s a hydraulic driveway and a turntable garage floor that ensures you always leave facing the ocean.

The home comes turnkey, fully furnished and professionally decorated.

https://www.pacaso.com/listings/6653-neptune-pl-la-jolla-ca

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2665 Fallsview Rd., San Marcos

Check out our new listing!

2665 Fallsview Rd., San Marcos

4 br/4.5 ba, 3,452sf

3-car garage

YB: 2005

LP = $1,260,000 – SOLD!

Are you looking for a larger, updated home that is attractively priced at $376/sf (which is well under the current average of $445/sf for other houses for sale in the 92078)? Here you have it in Oak Creek Ranch – the slice of heaven between San Elijo Hills and Carlsbad! Enjoy the right-sized granite kitchen with chef’s island that combines nicely with the extra-large family room overlooking a private backyard with fruit and avocado trees! Features include new carpet and paint, secluded downstairs bedroom suite, piano room, massive master suite, OWNED SOLAR, and the perfect courtyard in front! The corner location on a culdesac ensures privacy and some extra light too. Feels like Carlsbad without the price tag!

2665 Fallsview Road

Check out our new listing!

2665 Fallsview Rd., San Marcos

4 br/4.5 ba, 3,452sf

3-car garage

YB: 2005

LP = $1,299,000

Are you looking for a larger, updated home that is attractively priced at $376/sf (which is well under the current average of $445/sf for other houses for sale in the 92078)? Here you have it in Oak Creek Ranch – the slice of heaven between San Elijo Hills and Carlsbad! Enjoy the right-sized granite kitchen with chef’s island that combines nicely with the extra-large family room overlooking a private backyard with fruit and avocado trees! Features include new carpet and paint, secluded downstairs bedroom suite, piano room, massive master suite, OWNED SOLAR, and the perfect courtyard in front! The corner location on a culdesac ensures privacy and some extra light too. Feels like Carlsbad without the price tag!

Open house 12-3pm on Saturday and Sunday!

Link to Zillow listing

Lynyrd Skynyrd Oakland

This is for my brother who turns 58 years old tomorrow. We were both born in Oakland, California and our grandfather – who was District Attorney of Alameda County – did all the legal work for land acquisition and development of the Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. The best live rock performance of all-time was when Allen Collins took over lead guitar at the 6-minute mark:

Frenzy Monitor

Here’s our bimonthly check on how the actives and pendings are faring.

Two weeks ago it was suggested, “We were driving 135 MPH, and now we’re down to 127 MPH”.

We’re probably down to 100 MPH now.

For the first time in months, the total number of active and pending listings are balanced, and almost all areas have a few more actives today than they did two weeks ago:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
June 9
June 23
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354

We can also track the average market times too.

Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

The lower-end should always be the hottest segment, and the average market time was down to 18 days on Monday.  But the other price ranges are going the other way, which either means that buyers are getting more picky, or more prices are wrong – or both.

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2 Out Of 5 Years Exemption, Revisited

The residential real estate market has no boundaries on pricing.

It’s free enterprise at its finest – no laws, no restrictions, and no limit on where prices can go.

We saw a dramatic example where a model-match tract home on the same street sold for $550,000 more than the last sale the month before!

Many local homeowners can say they’ve picked up another half-million in appreciation in just the last year, which provides one more hurdle to moving.

Their net profit exceeds $500,000, which means they are going to pay capital-gains tax if they move.

Nobody likes to pay tax to Uncle Sam – especially when it might be six-figures!

We’ve seen it with the investment properties, for example. Long-time owners who paid a tenth of the money they can get today who absolutely refuse to sell just because of the taxation. They could still reap hundreds of thousands, or even millions in profit after paying the tax, but it irks them so much to pay the government that kind of money, that they refuse to consider it – and most consider it a shakedown.

It’s the same with residential. If you have to pay the government a big chunk of your profit in taxes, you’re going to think twice.  It may even be the last straw, and end up being what prevents you from moving.

The 2-out-of-5 years exemption was created in 1997 and gives married homeowners as much as $500,000 in net profit, tax-free, when they sell their home.

But in 1997, the median home price in America was around $170,000 – and today it is twice as much.

Shouldn’t we revise the rule to reflect the increase?

I think so.

Let’s double the exemption and make it $1,000,000 tax-free.

Politicians would need to agree that the lack of supply is killing the American Dream for the middle class. Without more homes for sale, the pricing will continue to climb until homeownership is beyond the reach of most people – which it already is in many areas.

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Pacaso NIMBYs

The fight between the NIMBYs and AirBnb/VRBO/Pacaso homes is only beginning…..

Pattie Dullea stepped out one morning last month in Napa, Calif., to have a word with the young man who pulled up in an antique sports car to tour the home across the street.

“You might not want to buy there,” she said she told the man, who was there to consider investing in the home. “We don’t want our neighborhood to turn into a timeshare neighborhood. And we are going to do everything in our power to make that not happen.”

Such scenes are becoming more common in California wine-country towns where a real estate startup called Pacaso is snapping up million-dollar homes, then selling ownership shares to second-home searchers looking for weekend getaways.

The opposition to Pacaso in Napa is the latest attempt by homeowners to block real-estate companies from changing how homes in their neighborhoods are occupied or owned. Homeowners and local governments have for years fought the spread of short-term rentals made through platforms like Airbnb, and high demand during the pandemic for both vacation and primary residences has only intensified the conflicts.

Austin Allison, Pacaso chief executive and a Napa resident, said the local unpleasantness was misplaced outrage about the larger shortage of affordable housing in California. The company’s 14 homes in the region, which the company markets to up to eight partial owners each, are a drop in the bucket, he said. “This housing crisis is a big problem that’s way bigger than Pacaso,” he said.

Homeowners in the Napa Valley say their quiet residential cul-de-sacs are on the brink of becoming high-traffic party zones and no longer affordable to local families. Anti-Pacaso signs dot property lines. Groups opposing its presence have organized in several towns: In Napa, there is Communities Against Timeshares (Cats); in Sonoma, Sonomans Together Opposing Pacaso (Stop) is active; and in St. Helena, Neighborhoods Opposing Pacaso Encroachment (Nope).

The opponents can count early victories.

On Ms. Dullea’s street in Napa, Pacaso said this month it would no longer market shares in the house it bought there. The company cited community feedback in its decision to sell the house, which it will sell to a single owner. To calm concerns about reducing the stock of relatively affordable housing, the company also agreed to only buy homes priced above $2 million. And to help keep the peace, it has placed decibel limiters on stereo systems in its homes.

Napa Valley’s resistance could become a roadblock for Pacaso’s model, which relies on offering luxury-home stays inside traditional residential neighborhoods and away from typical vacation zones. The company so far has launched in 20 U.S. markets and has plans to expand to Europe.

Pacaso has accused some locals of trespassing and intimidation. One Pacaso executive filed a police report after someone responded to an online listing with the message, “I will burn down any home you buy in Napa,” according to a company spokesman. But the residents involved in protesting against Pacaso say that they don’t trespass or act aggressively.

“I think people need to just chill out and mind their own business,” said Will Maroun, a Pacaso customer in St. Helena who bought a one-eighth share in a house with backyard views of the vineyards. Mr. Maroun was hosting an outdoor dinner for four at 7 p.m. one evening when a neighbor called a noise complaint into the police, he said.

The police ordered him to turn off his music, but Mr. Maroun has continued to enjoy poolside tunes since. “They just haven’t called the cops.”

On Old Winery Court in Sonoma, residents of an eight-home cul-de-sac say Pacaso is the big problem. They are hoping to duplicate the victory won by Ms. Dullea and her neighbors in Napa. They are upset about the new house a former neighbor built, then sold to Pacaso this spring for $4 million. Now they worry their tightknit community will become overrun with part-timers coming and going to the house.

Every yard now has an anti-Pacaso sign, and some cars parked on the street have them, locals say. When a prospective buyer arrives to tour the property, residents alert each other and then step out of their houses, making their presence known, said Nancy Gardner and Carl Sherrill, retired homeowners opposing Pacaso.

“It’s nothing personal,” Mr. Sherrill said. “You might be the nicest people in the world. But we’re going to be angry. Because we’re angry at Pacaso.”

Link to WSJ Article

Supply To Remain Low

The last time we had a big surge in pricing, the median sales price went up 100% in five years.  But that was twenty years ago when the boomers were all young enough to move frequently, causing plenty of homes to be for sale.

By now, most (if not all) of those boomers are settled in and just watching the show.

My comments then:

https://www.courant.com/sdut-housing-boomed-in-north-county-2005dec25-story.html

First American’s comments now:

Average tenure length jumped nearly 4 percent from one year ago, and 0.4 percent compared with last month. The monthly gain was the largest since August 2020. The monthly increase in average tenure length contributed to a loss of over 17,000 potential home sales. Since existing homeowners supply the majority of the homes for sale, and increasing tenure length indicates homeowners are not selling, the housing market faces an ongoing supply shortage.

Before the housing market crash in 2007, the average length of time someone lived in their home was approximately five years. Average tenure length grew to approximately eight years during the aftermath of the housing market crisis between 2008 and 2016. The most recent data shows that the average length of time someone lives in their home reached 10.6 years in May 2021, an historic high.

Two trends are locking homebodies in place and driving the increase in tenure length.

First, for homeowners with rock-bottom rates, modestly higher rates in an historically low inventory environment may disincentivize some from selling their homes, thus preventing more supply from reaching the market. Second, seniors are choosing to age in place. Analysis of the 2020 ASEC data reveals that the homeownership rate actually increased for baby boomers in 2020. While a 2019 study from Freddie Mac shows that if seniors and adults born between 1931-1959 behaved like earlier generations, they would have released nearly 1.6 million additional housing units to the market by 2018. As seniors continue to choose to age in place, there will be fewer existing homes available for sale.

Link to Article

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