We’re halfway through 2018 – let’s check on the predictions. Here is where Rob Dawg, Franklin Jones, Ash, and myself guessed what would happen this year:
My thoughts in December for 2018, plus extra stats:
I guessed earlier that NSDCC detached-home sales will drop 5% in 2018 – but that would still give us around 3,000 houses sold, which is a healthy amount, given that rates and prices are both expected to be higher. The median sales price, full of imperfections, should keep rising, and I’ll guess +5% in 2018.
Those same factors, plus a few more boomer liquidations, could also create a bull rush frenzy, with intense wrangling for decently-priced houses listed under $1,500,000. With more inventory, we could approach 3,200 sales again (3,084 NSDCC houses sold in 2017) .
The higher-end market is challenging too, but in the opposite direction. Today there are 374 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, and we sold about 50 per month in 2017.
We ended the year with 62% of the houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad being priced over $2,000,000, with a median list price of $2,495,000 overall.
We had 10% fewer listings in 2017 than in 2016, but 2% more sales!
Where are we now?
First-half NSDCC sales are down 11% year-over-year.
Median list price today is $2,295,000, which is down 9%, compared to December 27, 2017. Of the 935 houses for sale, 55% of them are priced over $2,000,000.
The 2017 NSDCC median sales price was $1,225,000, and the median sales price has been $1,325,000 for the first half of 2018, an 8% increase.
We’ve sold 317 houses over $2,000,000 in 2018, or about 53 per month.
Although we had 10% fewer listings last year than we had in 2016, we have had 9% more listings this year than in the first half of 2017.
Nine percent more listings, but 11% fewer sales? Expect that buyers will become increasingly picky – there are plenty of houses to go around!
Don’t ever doubt the ‘Dawg – he’s right on the money, as usual:
High end volume and price stagnant.
Median rises 8% because every low priced property disappears sold or doesn’t sell. Median rises 8% because median properties are going to be owner improved in order to command a higher price. Total volume however will drop 10% for the same reasons.
It is almost as if financial events have been financialized. No room for small fish in the real estate ocean.
The next stock market event doesn’t lower prices only freezes activity.
Makes me so mad I want to drive a minivan into a swimming pool.
Thanks but let’s hope I’m wrong about a stock market event.
I’m up in Sack-o-tomatoes for another day. Healthy market.
I’m not convinced Deutsche Bank is in great shape. Tariff’s could give them more than a belly ache. They’re in no shape for game playing with us. If Deutsche gets nauseous, the EU could start discharging from orifices they didn’t know they had.
And if that happens, Goldman Sachs and friends may do… what they gots to do…