JtR Predictions


I guessed we would see 2016 sales drop by 5%.

Instead, they went up 3%, and the median SP went up 6%!


I guessed that we’d have 3,100 sales in 2017, and the median sales price would be $1,200,000. How’s that is turning out?

NSDCC Annual Sales
Median Sales Price
3,016 (today)

The number of 2017 sales should wind up being higher than last year, and also the highest count since the Frenzy of 2013 – and that’s with a median sales price that is 29% higher than in 2013!


I guessed earlier that NSDCC detached-home sales will drop 5% in 2018 – but that would still give us around 3,000 houses sold, which is a healthy amount, given that rates and prices are both expected to be higher.  The median sales price, full of imperfections, should keep rising, and I’ll guess +5% in 2018.

Those same factors, plus a few more boomer liquidations, could also create a bull rush frenzy, with intense wrangling for decently-priced houses listed under $1,500,000.  With more inventory, we could approach 3,200 sales again.

The higher-end market is challenging too, but in the opposite direction.  Today there are 374 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, and we sold about 50 per month in 2017.

2018 Predictions By Readers:

Rob Dawg:

High end volume and price stagnant.

Median rises 8% because every low priced property disappears sold or doesn’t sell. Median rises 8% because median properties are going to be owner improved in order to command a higher price. Total volume however will drop 10% for the same reasons.

It is almost as if financial events have been financialized. No room for small fish in the real estate ocean.

The next stock market event doesn’t lower prices only freezes activity.

Makes me so mad I want to drive a minivan into a swimming pool.

franklin Jones:

My guess, home sales remain -2% due to a lack of inventory in the low end coupled by price increase in that sector. With a median sales price up 5.5% for 2018.

The lower end property will be very competitive. Lets take Encinitas, don’t think you are gonna find a SFR that is decent for under 800K anymore, next will be South Carlsbad which will be under 700K…that is coming. Good time to buy anything over 1.5 mil especially Cardiff and Rancho Santa Fe…good value for the money considering what new homes are going for, we are talking 800K for new San Marcos and up with any kind of a view. that city has really come up in the last five years.

I think for a second house, or rental you cannot go wrong with the beach areas, yea the price, but I think no matter what happens in the future people will always want to live at or near the beach and I don’t see rents tanking anytime soon. Interest rates are gonna up…3.6 to 4.0 this year, next I see towards the end of the year 4.5…in terms of interest that is a 12% increase in interest payments in terms of whole dollars…Lock it in now..while the money is still very cheap. 5years from now when we are at norm…which is 6.5% or more than 50% more interest if you consider 4% or thereabouts. We will see price fluctuation but at these rates lock and load at either 15 years or 30 years..

What do you think?

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