I’ll go everywhere to help out a bubbleinfo reader! This is a great house too, built in 1995 on a culdesac with no HOA or Mello-Roos for only $569,000. I’ll be doing open house this Sunday from noon to 3pm:
I don’t know what this means yet for consumers, but realtors have been losing control of our destiny all year – at least News Corp might put up a fight.
“This acquisition will accelerate News Corp’s digital and global expansion and contribute to the transformation of our company, making online real estate a powerful pillar of our portfolio,” said Robert Thomson, Chief Executive of News Corp.
“We intend to use our media platforms and compelling content to turbo-charge traffic growth and create the most successful real estate website in the US,” Thomson added. “We are building on our existing real estate expertise and expect to leverage the potential of Move and its valuable connections with Realtors and consumers around the country.”
NAR puts their old-fashioned spin on it here:
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index continues its ride to flatsville, with the July reading rising a scant 0.34% month-over-month. The year-over-year comparison dipped into single digits too, rising 8.27%, which still sounds positive to me.
But the deceleration is in, and the month-over-month reading is likely to go negative – possibly as soon as next month. But that will be the week of Halloween and well into the off-season, when not as many people will notice.
These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:
Reader elbarcosr sent in these thoughts and numbers on Carmel Valley:
I always pause and try to take a big-picture look at the market each month when you post inventory watch. I get confused trying to get a feel for where the market is actually doing since so many stats come out blending apples and oranges and focusing on MOM or YOY, which I don’t like since snapshots seem misleading to me.
So I ran a comparison for 92130 detached solds for 1/1 to 9/29 for 2013 and 2014. Limited it to 4br, over 2500 sq ft and under 1.8 since I think that is the sweet spot for CV, albeit maybe I should have lowered the top end sales price. I didn’t delete any anomalies off the results, though it might have provided more accuracy had I done that.
I think 92130 is a decent proxy since there is a lot of volume and the houses are fairly interchangeable, give or take. You can’t use west of the 5 as any over-all indicator I don’t think, Encinitas is pretty scattered with product variation and I don’t know Carlsbad all that well.
|No. of Sales|
What do these numbers say? Perhaps despite all the histrionics needed to sell papers (I guess generate clicks would be more accurate), has 2014 just been a slightly boring to above-average year? DOM still seems pretty low.
1. The price increases on top of last year’s frenzy are impressive, but they are relatively modest – and not large enough to scare off buyers who have already seen a 19% increase in the average cost-per-sf since 2012. So something else is contributing to the rather-large 30% drop in sales – either not enough houses for sale, or we’re running out of buyers.
Carmel Valley Total Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 – Sept. 15
2013 = 606
2014 = 563 (-7%)
There have been 7% fewer houses listed for sale in 2014, but sales are down 30%. My guess is that the ‘inferior’ houses for sale are not selling like they were in 2013, and contributing to the rest of the difference. Without frenzy, buyers get picky.
2. Run Out of Buyers? It sounds far-fetched, but once they buy their residence, buyers are done (or look elsewhere for rentals). There have been 841 CV resales over $1,000,000 in the last 48 months, and while there will always be buyers, the demand has to be thinning out somewhat with higher pricing.
3. Carmel Valley is its own club – there isn’t a substitute. The only other way to stay in the Del Mar School District is to move to Del Mar, where it costs more and you don’t have easy choices like you do with the newer tract homes that populate the 92130. Same if you’re on the north side of CV and in Solana Beach schools – moving to Solana Beach takes big money and you’re probably going to buy an older home that needs work. Ewwww
4. The Days on Market has been fast-forwarded due to new listings being disseminated to buyers within minutes of hitting the MLS – and it has helped to inflict urgency too. But the hyper-speed also contributes to listings going stale after a week or two, because both buyers and agents keep a Teflon memory, and consider a new listing for about as long as a loaf of bread. I doubt it will change, and sellers need to be sharp on price from the beginning.
I agree with elbarcosr that Carmel Valley is a decent proxy for the rest of the local market. It is by far the best place to compare like-kind properties, due to it being almost exclusively newer tract houses – and built by the same builder! And while the rest of SD County doesn’t enjoy the confluence of location, schools, and proximity of employers like Carmel Valley, at least we can learn from its general market data and see if it applies elsewhere.
The national Pending Home Sales fell 1% in August – that’s it? The west was up 2.6%, which is even more surprising, but the lower-end homes are probably carrying the load. Chargers looked good too, but injuries might catch up with them:
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Are you thinking of selling your home, and wondering how to go about it?
How you sell your house has an impact on the price, which is driven by the comfort level of the buyer. There is typically as much as a 10% swing in pricing within the same neighborhood, depending on location in the tract, condition of the home, and how the house is sold.
Here is a general guide to sales-method-to-achieve-desired-price:
WHOLESALE PRICE – Stick a sign in the yard, and someone will come along.
WHOLESALE-PLUS – Stick a sign in the yard and an ad on Craigslist.
AUCTION – Hard to know if you’ll get wholesale or retail due to the limiting factors. Qualified buyers may be turned off by their perception of the potential reserve price, the buyer’s premium, or slick-talking auctioneers.
RETAIL – You do your homework and hire an experienced, competent agent to sell your above-average home with good curb appeal in a popular area. You agree to an attractive list price, and the agent conducts a mass-marketing campaign that generates an offer or two during the first week on the market. You negotiate in good faith, and together you find a way to the finish line.
RETAIL-PLUS – You do your homework and hire an experienced, competent agent to sell your above-average home with good curb appeal in a popular area. You agree to an attractive list price, and the agent conducts a mass-marketing campaign that generates multiple offers during the first week on the market. Your crafty agent pits them against each other, and the ensuing bidding war causes an above-market sale. But without a frenzy to drive the sale, buyers are more cautious, and look for any reason to cancel and get back on the fence, hoping prices come down. Here are the potential hurdles to closing a Retail-Plus sale:
Inspection reveals defects – The defects give the buyer a reason to try and clawback some of that retail-plus price. How your agent handles this critical juncture will determine whether the retail-plus price – and sale – sticks.
Appraisal is a challenge – Your agent has to know the comps, and can present a compelling case that convinces an anonymous appraiser of the value.
Other agent is a ding-dong – The good buyer’s agents have already talked their buyers out of paying this high of a price, so you are left with the inexperienced/desperate realtors who don’t know, or don’t mind if their clients pay too much. Somehow your agent has to find a way to get them to the finish line, usually in spite of the buyer’s agent.
You don’t need an agent to sell your house – and you could take a chance on beating the odds by short-cutting this list and still move up a notch. But now that the frenzy is over, buyers are reluctant to throw crazy money at houses any more – unless you get great help!
From John Burns:
It’s here. Every month, more than a quarter million Americans are turning 65. Almost 80 million Baby Boomers, born over a span of 19 years, are shifting gears towards retirement…or whatever else is next.
Here are a few facts:
- The Boomers are the largest group of shoppers looking for a home today nationally, based on our Consumer Insights survey.
- They were waiting for their home equity to come back, based on our survey in 2012. Now, they have equity in their pockets and they are ready to move.
- More than 10,000 of these Boomers are turning 65 every day. This will continue well into the next decade.
- They are working longer and living longer.
- The Boomers are the most likely to report that they cannot find what they are looking for in today’s existing housing stock.
Of the 22,000 home shoppers who took our 2014 Consumer Insights survey, 42% of them are 55+ and shared with us that:
- Home design will make them move (it is the third-most-important motivator for moving after location and price), but 55% say they can’t find what they are looking for.
- 43% want to downsize, with most wanting 1,500–1,999 square feet.
- Among those without children:
- 46% want to live in a community that is more multigenerational
- 33% want an age-restricted community
- 21% want an age-targeted community
(Preference for age-restricted and age-targeted communities varies widely by geography.)
The opportunities offered by the 55+ population are huge. They represent:
- 25% of the total population
- 50%+ of current homeowners (likely with plenty of equity) and have a homeownership rate in excess of 75%
- 30%+ of total home transactions
All of these rates are only getting bigger. The challenge is that the 55+ homeowner population tends to stay in place—less than 3% move per year, although it is higher for the younger portion of this cohort.
John has an in-depth article out on home-price appreciation, and he’s no ivory-tower guy – his staff is on the street daily:
Rolling it all up, we are projecting 4% price appreciation for the country next year, with wild variations by market, huge vulnerability to changing mortgage rates, and a wide variety in risk levels (San Francisco looks to be in a mini bubble, but bubbles can go on for quite some time, while Atlanta looks to be very underpriced).
He mentioned that the best measure of pricing trends is the “number of months of supply of homes”. He didn’t say what he considers ‘normal’, and not sure we’ll ever have that again anyway! But it used to be that six months of supply was considered balanced.
Here are the current active listings of detached homes, divided by August closed sales:
NSDCC: 1,100/244 = 4.51 months.
SD County: 5,814/1,885 = 3.08 months.
I’m not sure how much you can read into this statistic though, because 867 (79%) of the NSDCC homes for sale are priced over $1,000,000, and only 1,086 sales have closed over $1,000,000 this year. If we divide the 1,086 by 8.5 = 128 per month, which means there is an approximate 6.8-month supply of million-dollar homes for sale currently.
But following this stat over time would identify the trend. I’ve added a new category so we can track it from now on!
The San Diego Modern Home Tour is Saturday, and you can save $10 by ordering your tickets online before 8pm on Friday:
Let’s quit fooling around and get down to what matters – bands that had a profound influence on our upbringing. The hallucinogenic era wouldn’t have been the same without these guys. By the time you get to the 0.50-minute mark, be at full screen, and full volume:
Pink Floyd has a new album coming out on November 10th: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/music/pink-floyd-releasing-new-album-november-article-1.1949595