How many short sales and REOs are happening in the elite areas of NSDCC? 12%
Detached Sales between April 1 and July 31 in Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, and CV:
Type
# of Sales
Avg $/sf
% of Total
SS & REOs
48
$297/sf
12%
Non-SS&REOs
338
$431/sf
88%
Total
386
$414/sf
100%
Here is the map of where the SS & REOs were located:
There are 135 SFRs on the NOD and NOTS lists, so there will be a few more dripped out, but for the most part we are in a non-distressed market – at least as far as we can tell.
Will banks keep the pressure on those behind in payments?
Three posts back we saw that the selling seasons have been steady the last three years.
Let’s take a closer look.
The overall SD inventory today is down to 6,214 attached and detached homes for sale, so I think this chart must include the contingents, which today total 4,373 listings. But you can see that in the 2010 and 2011 selling seasons, there were over 15,000 listings:
San Diego Housing Inventory
In spite of (or because of?) the drastically lower inventory this year, detached NSDCC sales rose +20% this year. Contributing factors appear to be lower mortgage rates (though each year the buyers were similarly motivated to get “the lowest rates ever”) and more short sales closing:
NSDCC Detached Sales April 1 – July 31
Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
REOs
Short Sales
Mortgage Rate 1st Week of June
2010
958
$378/sf
62
85
4.79%
2011
959
$375/sf
74
79
4.55%
2012
1,153
$370/sf
70
127
3.75%
Now that we have more confidence in short sales being completed in a timely manor, each listing is getting fair consideration. Which means that virtually all attentions are on price only – they must, because the average pricing actually dipped a couple of ticks.
It is shocking that prices aren’t going up statistically, because it feels like it on the street. Maybe it’s because everyone is fighting over the well-priced homes, and only to a price point within reason – and leaving the rest alone?
Are long-time owners, mostly empty-nesters or elderly, finally moving on? Or is it more of the recent peak purchasers who are cutting loose?
Of those who are selling now, when did they buy?
A check of the August transactions in North San Diego Couty’s coastal region (Carlsbad to La Jolla):
Sellers’ Date of Purchase:
Prior to 1984: 10
1985 – 1994: 16
1995 – 2003: 54
2004 – Present: 66
I thought there would have been more long-timers based on how many estate sales I’ve seen lately, but sellers don’t have to be long-time owners to be old.
Those who bought prior to 2004 ended up selling for more than they paid, though that doesn’t mean that they walked with money. How did the sellers who bought since 2004 make out?
Gross Profit of Sellers who Purchased Since 2004 (commissions and closing costs not included):
Gained six figures: 11
Gained five figures: 15
Lost five figures: 13
Lost six figures: 27
There were some heavy losses too, fourteen sellers lost more than $300,000.
Here are the biggest losers:
The bank took a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure on their $2 million mortgage here, and sold for $1,200,000 less than the 2005 price:
Lady Luck gets a humble nod in this video, but after five months on the market, you also need a listing agent at the top of his game to convince the buyer’s agent that they should pay full price:
For those who think we are still over-valued and need to resort to historical trends, consider this.
If it weren’t for the big blow-up in the 2003-2004 era, we might have been fine.
We are roughly 25% higher in pricing then we were 10 years ago, or about +2.5% per year.
The last three selling seasons have been steady.
Average $/sf of NSDCC Detached Sales between April 1st and July 31st:
Sustainable? As long as rates and inventory stay low, we should be OK for now. For sellers who are “waiting for prices to come back”, consider that this is probably where they were supposed to be, and the fog-a-mirror financing that fueled the bubble won’t be returning.
First the MLS remarks said this was a Covenant property, then she changed it to “non-Covenant”.
It is within the Covenant boundaries but not annexed into the HOA – about $8,700 will fix that, but do you want to be subject to the Art Jury? Might be better to wait until your new house is done!
Maybe you’ve always suspected that there was more to San Diego’s North County than beach towns, rolling hills, expat giraffes and a walled kingdom of brightly colored plastic. But frankly, they had me at beach towns.
I always figured the rest — even the two marquee attractions, Legoland in Carlsbad and the San Diego Zoo Safari Park near Escondido — was just gravy. Or maybe, given San Diego’s love of beer, the chaser after the pint.
But now I’ve spent several days on and off the beaches, and it looks as if you’re right: San Diego County’s northern reaches, beginning above La Jolla and ending at Camp Pendleton, deserve more attention than they get.
So here are 11 micro-itineraries, which are the latest addition to our ongoing Southern California Close-Up series. (To see others, go to latimes.com/socalcloseups) They’re far from comprehensive but enough to get a beginner started. And, yes, the beaches, the beasts and the molded plastic kingdom are in here too.
Sales have been as strong this year as any of the last four years:
With having a smaller supply of active listings to consider – about half as many as last summer:
In total, there have been about 11% fewer homes listed this year, compared to last (42,500 vs 48,000), but we’ve closed about 10% more through August 15th. It is interesting that it only took that much of a swing to ratchet up the market to a frenzy-like feeling and talk of rising prices.
SD County Closed Sales, Jan 1 to Aug 15
Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
DOM
2011
20,388
$229/sf
79
2012
22,480
$229/sf
77
The pendings are solid too. On other graphs Rich is showing about 7,000 in July, but on the MLS today there are 4,407 contingents, and 5,322 pendings, for a total of 9,729 (which should help the August and September closed sales look pretty good).
I think there have been fewer over-priced turkeys, which would cause the market to run leaner than usual, which I think is acceptable once we get used to it. Pricing precision is available to everyone who is paying attention, so hopefully the lack of OPTs is due to the players utilizing their improved market knowledge.
Hat tip to J.M. for sending this in from theSeattle Times:
THEY KNEW it the instant the real-estate agent opened the door. A jewel of a Midcentury modern in all its original, 60-years-ago glory. Untouched and in Broadmoor. Bones as cool as late-night jazz; interiors with that special mix of pooped out and wallpapery perky.
“We wanted to do the kitchen and dining room first,” says Nathan. He’s taking in what is now a warm, modern and comfortable place to conjure up dinner for two or a crowd. “But when that was finished it looked so great we thought, we have to do all of it.”
He’s right. It does look great. Gone is the washer and dryer from their wrongful place near the front door. Instead there is an open galley kitchen of Silestone counters, Ann Sacks limestone backsplash tiles, soft and focused lighting, dark-stained oak cabinets. Overhead throughout the home is the original peaked fir ceiling. It is stripped of its white pickling and has been rubbed with oil. As if in gratitude, it offers a new warmth in return.
(third photo is the old laundry/office/wine cellar combo downstairs)
