Are long-time owners, mostly empty-nesters or elderly, finally moving on? Or is it more of the recent peak purchasers who are cutting loose?
Of those who are selling now, when did they buy?
A check of the August transactions in North San Diego Couty’s coastal region (Carlsbad to La Jolla):
Sellers’ Date of Purchase:
Prior to 1984: 10
1985 – 1994: 16
1995 – 2003: 54
2004 – Present: 66
I thought there would have been more long-timers based on how many estate sales I’ve seen lately, but sellers don’t have to be long-time owners to be old.
Those who bought prior to 2004 ended up selling for more than they paid, though that doesn’t mean that they walked with money. How did the sellers who bought since 2004 make out?
Gross Profit of Sellers who Purchased Since 2004 (commissions and closing costs not included):
Gained six figures: 11
Gained five figures: 15
Lost five figures: 13
Lost six figures: 27
There were some heavy losses too, fourteen sellers lost more than $300,000.
Here are the biggest losers:
The bank took a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure on their $2 million mortgage here, and sold for $1,200,000 less than the 2005 price:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120032039-14810_Fisher_Cove_Del_Mar_CA_92014
Sellers lost their entire down payment – sold for $2.65 million less than their 2006 price:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110004761-5265_La_Glorieta_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067
There were 19 short sales and 5 REO sales, so about 40% suffered their losses personally.
Get good help!
The gains and losses of the 2004+ sellers (add 000):
+1.200
+650
+575
+470
+300
+284
+275
+250
+180
+147
+103
+90
+82
+77
+75
+65
+65
+65
+58
+48
+39
+35
+33
+32
+19
+15
-10
-15
-25
-36
-37
-42
-44
-54
-55
-55
-62
-63
-94
-100
-109
-113
-120
-130
-137
-140
-157
-177
-231
-243
-255
-257
-305
-330
-332
-359
-362
-450
-532
-605
-622
-680
-705
-804
-1.200
-2.650
Great blog post today! I love this kind of data; it helps put some perspective on what is taking place out in the market. The majority of RE Agents in our local market just substitute anecdotal evidence for hard facts.
Speaking of anecdotal evidence…..
My in-laws live in a modest 1800 sq ft two story house up in Ventura county. They would love to sell and re-locate down here to be closer to their children and grandchildren. They bought their house back in the early 80’s and the house has been paid off for some time now. So they could easily sell and walk away with a tidy sum. However, what they could buy down here in N County with that profit is not much different than what they already have. Besides, what is more important to them is that they have an established network of friends and doctors in Ventura county. They are still very active in the community through volunteering. Therefore, there is a considerable amount of inertia for them to overcome before they start a big move at this point in their lives.
Based on my anecdotal evidence, Jim’s numbers don’t surprise me at all.