Potential home buyers who are frustrated with the limited inventory can try to expand their target areas. But if you are already set on the neighborhood in which you’d like to live, what then?
Take a closer look at the fixers.
It is VERY common that buyers only want to consider the homes in top condition – but how many of those do you see? Hardly any, because sellers typically don’t spend the money on upkeep, or spruce them up, in order to sell.
If you plan to spend at least $25,000 to $50,000 on any house you buy, it’ll open up the selection tremendously, and hopefully you’ll find one where you can spend less. To help readers become more comfortable with repairing/improving homes, I’ll keep the posts coming – here’s a youtube on the cantina doors:
This youtube was recorded on January 19th to show an out-of-town buyer, which was the day it was inputted onto the MLS (before the work was even complete, as you will hear). Today it was marked pending, and another example that buyers are being very active in the new year:
Whether they like it or not, the nation’s banks control most of the country’s shadow inventory, according to a report Friday from Morgan Stanley.
Even more, properties in imminent default are typically cheaper homes with prime mortgages. The analyst adds that their findings buck conventional wisdom that these homes are either concentrated in the slums of Detroit, or prevalent amongst cardboard cutter McMansion neighborhoods.
The shadow inventory, they say, is the biggest problem for average Americans living in the nation’s major cities.
And, what’s more, the homes are more and more being controlled by the banks, as opposed to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or private securitization trusts.
“While agencies certainly maintain control over a large portion of the shadow inventory at just over a third, we can see that the majority of the control over delinquencies is in the hands of the banks, and their share has increased over the past year,” reported Oliver Chang, James Egan and Vishwanath Tirupattur (see chart below):
“This may be because borrowers are becoming delinquent at a faster rate for bank-held loans, but checking transition rates for each controlling party, we do not see a significantly larger change in transitions into delinquency for bank-held loans,” they added.
Of the shadow inventory, 75% are valued below $250,000, showing that McMansions have a small share of delinquencies (see below chart):
Further, the shadow inventory is growing across all of the United States. The analyst expect that more than 8 million liquidations are in order over the next five years before housing stabilizes.
“While hard-hit cities represent a more than fair share of shadow inventory, its distribution broadly encompasses all corners of the country,” said the analysts.
The liquidation of subprime early on in the recession is now being replaced by later delinquencies in prime collateral. The shift in collateral is making the supply imbalance worse for the best part of the credit spectrum.
CoreLogic said in September that based on the shear number of prime mortgages in the market, that foreclosure and delinquency rates would steadily tick upward. Compared to the less than 3.5 million subprime, there are about 40 million prime loans in the marketplace, 6.2% of which were 60 days delinquent in June 2010 and 3% of which were 90 days delinquent.
“We do see a slowdown in liquidation rates of bankheld loans, suggesting that the increasing share of shadow inventory is due to banks holding onto their delinquent loans longer than agencies or private securitization trusts,” they said.
Home values are falling at an accelerating rate in many cities across the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions found that prices declined in all of the 28 major metropolitan areas tracked during the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier.
The size of the year-to-year price declines was greater than the previous quarter’s in all but three of the markets, the latest indication that the housing market faces considerable challenges.
Inventory levels, meanwhile, are rising in many markets as the number of unsold homes piles up.
Home values dropped the most in cities that have already been hard-hit by the housing bust, including Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, and Chicago, according to data from real-estate website Zillow.com. But price declines also intensified in several markets that so far have escaped the brunt of the downturn, including Seattle and Portland, Ore.
Falling prices are a reflection of weak demand and tight credit conditions that reduce the number of potential buyers.
“There are just not a lot of renters with confidence, with a down payment, with good credit, and without a lot of additional debt,” said John Burns, a homebuilder consultant in Irvine, Calif.
On the inventory front, New York’s Long Island had enough homes on the market at the end of December to last 15 months at the average sales pace. The supply of unsold homes stood at 14 months in Charlotte, N.C., and Nashville, Tenn., and at nearly 13 months for northern New Jersey.
Markets are generally considered balanced when the supply is around six months.
A few markets, including Sacramento and San Diego, are seeing inventories fall to healthier levels as low prices spur interest from first-time buyers and investors, while others, such as Washington, D.C., and Boston, have been cushioned by more stable economies.
“We’re still running at half speed,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick, N.J., appraisal firm. “Sales are below year-ago levels and inventory is higher than it was a year ago.” Far-flung suburbs continue to fare worse than homes located closer to core metro centers, he says.
Economists say that the biggest risk to the housing market is that job growth doesn’t pick up. “Without improvement in unemployment, confidence stays low. Purchasing stays low,” says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.
Market conditions could get worse in the months ahead. Millions of homeowners are in some stage of foreclosure or are seriously delinquent on their mortgages, and millions more owe more than their homes are worth.
Real-estate agents are bracing for an uptick in distressed properties hitting the market, including foreclosures being sold by banks and homes sold by owners via a short sale, in which banks agree to a sale for less than the amount owed.
Sales of foreclosed homes are partly responsible for reducing home values because banks tend to reduce prices quickly to sell the homes. Sales of foreclosures slowed in some markets at the end of last year as document-handling problems raised questions about the integrity of their foreclosure processes. But that could change as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.
Real-estate agents say that the threat of future price declines has led to a months-long standoff between buyers and sellers.
Sellers spurn what they see as low-ball offers, while buyers are demanding discounts because they are “convinced prices will drop further, and they don’t want to feel like suckers six months later,” says Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin Corp., a Seattle-based real-estate brokerage that operates in nine states. The result is that “it’s high noon at the O.K. Corral on every single transaction.”
Agents say that sluggish housing markets are requiring sellers to become much more realistic about setting prices that will spur dealsthe prices they set.
After receiving no offers on a three-bedroom home in Oceanside, Calif., during the first week on the market, real-estate agent Jim Klinge convinced the seller to slash $30,000 from the price, to $420,000.
That drew two full-price offers, and the home sold last week in an all-cash deal. “The drop in price was critical to reignite urgency for buyers,” said Mr. Klinge.
Some sellers have opted to pull their homes from the market rather than lower their prices, either because they believe values will improve or because cutting the price would mean selling for less than the amount owed to the bank.
“I know so many people here who are unwilling landlords,” said Mr. Kelman. “They’re now spending their Friday nights fixing leaky faucets for the tenants they’ve brought into their house.”
Our blog-friend Tom Tarrant is wrapping up his last flip in San Antonio, and bringing his talents back to San Diego. Hopefully once Tom and family are back in town we can experience some of his fine work in person. Here is the youtube of the latest project (love the Chevy truck in the garage!) from his blog,tomtarrant.com:
We had tons of fun this year sharing our adventures on the blog and attracted alot of attention doing it. This Spring my blog was voted Top 10 Real Estate Investing Blogs by Biggerpockets.com. This summer I was approached by 2 different production companies to do Real Estate Reality Shows and we completed and sold 2 big rehab high-end projects; The Neighbors House and The Target House. My killer rehab called The Hat Trick House was also featured on the front page of the local newspaper this summer which drew the attention of a local City Councilwoman who called us in to consult on urban redevelopment for the City. Our blog traffic doubled from last years numbers to over 80,000 visitors and my YouTube channel is blowing up. Happy New Year to everyone who’s followed along with us, thanks for all your comments and in less than 4 short weeks you’ll get to see a Great change of House Flipping Scenery from us, San Diego here we come!
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!