A tour of one of the typical 1980’s built tract homes in a gated community near Fairbanks Ranch. A nice way to get into the Rancho area for someone who doesn’t mind doing their own improvements. This sold for $1,161,000 in April:
Category Archive: ‘Rancho Santa Fe’
One of the better rebuilds in the Covenant – just sold for $3,550,000:
Cielo isn’t for everyone, but offers a good value to those who do match. The downsides here? It’s not the Covenant, and at this house it means Escondido schools. These are on top of the hill, which is approximately 1,000 feet higher than the gated entrance and the hill drive could be harrowing for some. T-M is down to their two model homes for sale – here’s a tour of the one-story:
From Bloomberg.com – an excerpt:
When real estate investors get this confident, money manager James Stack gets nervous. U.S. home prices are surging to new records. Homebuilder stocks last year outperformed all other groups. And bears? They’re now an endangered species.
Stack, 66, who manages $1.3 billion for people with a high net worth, predicted the housing crash in 2005, just before prices reached their peak. Now, from his perch in Whitefish, Montana, he says his “Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer” of homebuilder and mortgage company stocks, which jumped 80 percent in the past year, once again is flashing red.
“It is 2005 all over again in terms of the valuation extreme, the psychological excess and the denial,” said Stack, whose fireproof files of newspaper articles on bear markets date back to 1929. “People don’t believe housing is in a bubble and don’t want to hear talk about prices being a little bit bubblish.”
As the housing market approaches its key spring selling season, Stack is practically alone in his wariness. While price gains may slow, most analysts see no end in sight for the six-year-old recovery.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The housing needs of two massive generations — millennials aging into homeownership and baby boomers getting ready for retirement — are expected to fuel demand for years to come if employment remains strong. Sales in master-planned communities, many of which target buyers who are at least 55, reached a record last year, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Last month, a gauge of confidence from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo rose to the highest level in 18 years, and starts of single-family homes in November were the strongest in a decade.
“As soon as homes are finished, they’re flying off the shelf,” said Matthew Pointon, Capital Economics Ltd.’s U.S. property economist.
Stack has a different perspective. While the market might gradually correct itself, history shows that it’s more likely to “come down hard” with the next recession, he said. He described the pattern as a steep run-up in housing prices spurred by low interest rates. The last downturn came about when economic growth slowed after a series of rate increases, exposing the “rot in the woodwork” and prompting loan defaults, Stack said.
He noted that the Fed has projected three rate increases for this year, and said that “raises the risk that today’s highly inflated housing market will again end badly.” He’s watching homebuilder stocks closely because they’re a leading indicator, peaking in 2005, the year he called the crash — and the year before home prices themselves hit a top.
Jim: Of course today’s environment feels irrationally exuberant – it’s hard to believe how well we have done since our pricing recovery began in 2009!
But his reasoning that higher mortgage rates would “Raise the risk that today’s highly inflated housing market will again end badly” is off-base. Rates were coming down during the mortgage crisis – it was the fury over the neg-am loans that caused borrowers to think their payment was going to go through the roof, burn the house down, and kill their family. Borrowers who could only afford their initial minimum payment on the ARM then panicked at the first adjustment and hit the eject button.
Neg-am loans are now illegal, and I haven’t seen or heard of any ez-qual loans available at conforming rates – everybody who bought a house in the last nine years had to prove they could afford it, and their payment is fixed. Besides, we learned last time that just because their home value went down, people don’t panic and sell their house as long as they can afford it. People have to live somewhere, and we like it here. If a full-blown depression happened and we had another run of defaults, the government will provide another safety net and just tell banks not to foreclose.
If rates go up to 5% or 6%, it will probably stall the market, causing prices to bounce around. But there won’t be enough sellers who will dump on price that it would cause a major event. There could be a skirmish here and there caused by boomer liquidations occasionally. But that’s it.
Saw this at the VOSD, and it reminded me of these short clips:
The U-T tracked down the most and least expensive homes sold in the county last year. The cheapest was in Jacumba, which was in bad shape and went for just $27,000: “One room on the property included old laundry, broken computers and abandoned Christmas decorations.”
And the priciest was in La Jolla. It went for a cool $12 million.Zillow listing with photos
The story also included the accidental flip…of a RSF spec:
One of the most expensive homes to sell last year, 16568 La Gracia in Rancho Santa Fe, sold twice. Real estate agent Megan Luce said her clients bought the property in April but realized they weren’t there as much as their other properties so they decided to sell.
“I couldn’t believe they were selling so soon,” she said. “But, the property is breathtaking and I was excited to go into it again.”
Luce did not want to give the buyers’ names, and it is unclear from property records who they were. The home was purchased by Florida-based limited liability company, Covenant RJC, in April for $10.6 million. It was then sold to the Greenfield Trust out of Washington state for $10.85 million in December.
We’ve talked about how long-time owners are finally giving up their estate, and how the houses tend to need a full remodel. But every once in a while you see one with unique style and flair that they might be better left alone.
This one sold last month for full price, $1,800,000:
The MLS says $1,800,000, but the tax rolls says $1,785,000.
Kayla and I will be at 7060 Via Del Charro today 12-3pm!
An authentic California Ranch on 2.79 acres in horse country! Park-like estate with a stunning single-level main house that was redesigned and extensively upgraded in 2009 – it’s like a new house! The wide-open floor plan features wood-beam ceilings, wide-plank real hardwood floors, and several sets of french doors! Pool/spa, 3-car garage, TWO detached guest houses (perfect for multi-gen), tennis court, RSF schools, & no HOA! The master suite was highly upgraded in 2016 with new steam shower, jacuzzi tub, and walk-in closet! On sewer too! Plenty of room for horse facilities with trails nearby. $2,750,000
Here’s another way to demonstrate the ‘tight inventory’.
In our MLS, all new listings throughout the county are sequentially assigned a listing number. Yesterday, I inputted a listing that got #170017800. The first two numbers are the year of the input.
In previous years, on what date did listing #0017800 get inputted?
120017800 – April 4, 2012
130017800 – April 8, 2013
140017800 – April 4, 2014
150017800 – April 1, 2015
160017800 – April 4, 2016
170017800 – April 10, 2017
The inventory flow has been remarkably consistent – lately we’ve had 17,800 properties get listed in the first 91 to 100 days of the year. They may not be where you want them, or at the price you prefer, but there has been a steady flow to consider!
If you are thinking of buying on the higher end and willing to consider other areas, there are plenty for sale. In fact, there are over 17,000 homes for sale in California listed over $1,000,000 – including one in Bakersfield!
Speaking of my listing #170017800, I’ll be there today 1-4pm!