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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Rancho Santa Fe’

NSDCC August & Jan-Aug Sales

How did your area do last month, and for the first eight months of the year? It would be sufficient to just keep close to 2017, which was a good year for sales:

Town or Area
Zip Code
Aug17
Aug18
Jan-Aug17
Jan-Aug18
Cardiff
92007
7
8
49
39
NW Carlsbad
92008
23
20
147
143
SE Carlsbad
92009
45
47
390
324
NE Carlsbad
92010
10
14
109
117
SW Carlsbad
92011
28
24
189
142
Carmel Vly
92130
28
48
342
335
Del Mar
92014
20
4
105
108
Encinitas
92024
54
36
317
282
La Jolla
92037
18
24
207
227
RSF
92067
22
30
170
159
RSF
92091
11
5
28
21
Solana Bch
92075
13
13
73
63
NSDCC
All Above
279
273
2,126
1,960
Coronado
92118
22
11
124
115

Total NSDCC sales for the first eight months are down 8%, which isn’t the end of the world.  The median sales price is up, and the average cost-per-sf is down:

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2017: $1,245,000

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2018: $1,325,000

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2017: $549/sf

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2018: $534/sf

You would think that the high-dollar areas might be showing some struggle, but in August, both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe had great months.

In May, 2018, there were 13 sales in the 92067!

Posted by on Sep 16, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Rancho Santa Fe, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

RSF Bank-Owned Mold Farm

This sold for $4,000,000 in 2001. On 9/11/2007, the former owners of this property took out a mortgage for $8,500,000, and the bank foreclosed in 2014…….but they haven’t sold it yet:

It will be back on the market some day!

We might see this REO sooner, now that the bank foreclosed after the former owner who got sentenced to 34 months (WaMu/Chase had $4.5 million in loans):

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6036-San-Elijo-Ave-Rancho-Santa-Fe-CA-92067/16730510_zpid/

Posted by on Aug 30, 2018 in Bubbleinfo TV, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market, Rancho Santa Fe, REO Pre-Listings | 5 comments

New One-Story

Cielo isn’t for everyone, but offers a good value to those who do match.  The downsides here?  It’s not the Covenant, and at this house it means Escondido schools.  These are on top of the hill, which is approximately 1,000 feet higher than the gated entrance and the hill drive could be harrowing for some.  T-M is down to their two model homes for sale – here’s a tour of the one-story:

Posted by on Mar 27, 2018 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Rancho Santa Fe | 2 comments

Doom Ahead?

From Bloomberg.com – an excerpt:

When real estate investors get this confident, money manager James Stack gets nervous.  U.S. home prices are surging to new records. Homebuilder stocks last year outperformed all other groups. And bears? They’re now an endangered species.

Stack, 66, who manages $1.3 billion for people with a high net worth, predicted the housing crash in 2005, just before prices reached their peak. Now, from his perch in Whitefish, Montana, he says his “Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer” of homebuilder and mortgage company stocks, which jumped 80 percent in the past year, once again is flashing red.

“It is 2005 all over again in terms of the valuation extreme, the psychological excess and the denial,” said Stack, whose fireproof files of newspaper articles on bear markets date back to 1929. “People don’t believe housing is in a bubble and don’t want to hear talk about prices being a little bit bubblish.”

As the housing market approaches its key spring selling season, Stack is practically alone in his wariness. While price gains may slow, most analysts see no end in sight for the six-year-old recovery.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The housing needs of two massive generations — millennials aging into homeownership and baby boomers getting ready for retirement — are expected to fuel demand for years to come if employment remains strong. Sales in master-planned communities, many of which target buyers who are at least 55, reached a record last year, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Last month, a gauge of confidence from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo rose to the highest level in 18 years, and starts of single-family homes in November were the strongest in a decade.

“As soon as homes are finished, they’re flying off the shelf,” said Matthew Pointon, Capital Economics Ltd.’s U.S. property economist.

Stack has a different perspective. While the market might gradually correct itself, history shows that it’s more likely to “come down hard” with the next recession, he said. He described the pattern as a steep run-up in housing prices spurred by low interest rates. The last downturn came about when economic growth slowed after a series of rate increases, exposing the “rot in the woodwork” and prompting loan defaults, Stack said.

He noted that the Fed has projected three rate increases for this year, and said that “raises the risk that today’s highly inflated housing market will again end badly.” He’s watching homebuilder stocks closely because they’re a leading indicator, peaking in 2005, the year he called the crash — and the year before home prices themselves hit a top.

Link to Article

Jim: Of course today’s environment feels irrationally exuberant – it’s hard to believe how well we have done since our pricing recovery began in 2009!

But his reasoning that higher mortgage rates would “Raise the risk that today’s highly inflated housing market will again end badly” is off-base.  Rates were coming down during the mortgage crisis – it was the fury over the neg-am loans that caused borrowers to think their payment was going to go through the roof, burn the house down, and kill their family.  Borrowers who could only afford their initial minimum payment on the ARM then panicked at the first adjustment and hit the eject button.

Neg-am loans are now illegal, and I haven’t seen or heard of any ez-qual loans available at conforming rates – everybody who bought a house in the last nine years had to prove they could afford it, and their payment is fixed.  Besides, we learned last time that just because their home value went down, people don’t panic and sell their house as long as they can afford it.  People have to live somewhere, and we like it here.  If a full-blown depression happened and we had another run of defaults, the government will provide another safety net and just tell banks not to foreclose.

If rates go up to 5% or 6%, it will probably stall the market, causing prices to bounce around.  But there won’t be enough sellers who will dump on price that it would cause a major event.  There could be a skirmish here and there caused by boomer liquidations occasionally.  But that’s it.

Posted by on Jan 23, 2018 in Forecasts, Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage Qualifying, Rancho Santa Fe | 0 comments