by Jim the Realtor | Jun 18, 2025 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market |
Usually, the lowball season is limited to the 4th quarter each year. With the excess inventory today, some buyers will be attempting to get a deal now.
Buyers – Where do you start? Getting a deal on a fixer can be counterproductive because of the time and money needed to get it back in shape – and you end up with a retail investment that dominated your life. But if it’s in a superior location, it might be worth it.
The market is healthy enough that the creampuffs are going to get good or great offers from the less-informed. If you like the home and don’t mind paying retail, then battle it out and maybe you will get lucky and be able to shave a couple of bucks off the list price.
But if you want to lowball, the best chance of getting a deal is on the aged listings – those that have been on the market for more than 30 days.
- The best sign of a motivated seller is one that has already lowered their price. They are aware that their pricing isn’t working, and might be more receptive/motivated to listen to your lower offer.
- Pick on vacant houses, especially those with a hefty mortgage.
- Offer a quick close, and other sweeteners to offset your low price.
It’s likely that you will have to make several offers before landing one, but if you have the time, go ahead. The hope of holding out for a superior property will likely out-weigh your willingness to risk it all on one that might seem discounted today.
Sellers – Are you kicking yourself for not selling when rates were 3%? Why? Pricing is BETTER today than it was in 1Q22, the peak of the covid frenzy.
But let’s say a buyer is willing to cash you out in three weeks, but only if you knock 10% off your list price. If your home has been on the market for more than 30 days, we already know that the price is at least 5% too high, so the 10% discount is only slightly under market – and it could be retail by the end of the year.
Nobody is asking you to go back to 2021 pricing (and that pricing sounded fantastic in 2021, just four short years ago). At worst, the buyer is asking you to go back to 2023 pricing when there was a little dip.
You really ought to consider it.
Oh, ok you want to hold out for the extra couple of percentage points? You will need lower rates and/or less competition, and neither of those are likely this year or next. Yes, Trump will replace Powell in May, 2026 and rates might go down to 6% or less. But the likelihood of 1-2 of your neighbors taking a lowball offer is high, and their reset of the comps will thwart any future benefit of slightly lower rates.
Somebody in your neighborhood is going to take a lower offer. It might as well be you. Sell for less now, or sell for less later – your choice.
It’s just money!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 17, 2025 | Frenzy Monitor
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
The local markets are sinking further into a stallout that will probably last for the rest of the year.
Actives are up 27%, and pendings down 16%, year-over-year. Yikes!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 16, 2025 | 2025, Forecasts, Market Conditions |
Hunch: ‘Rebalancing’ might take longer than expected.
Executive Summary
San Diego housing market exhibits a pronounced -2.38% YoY price decline with 3,245 unit surplus inventory, creating a buyer-favorable landscape with 29.6% of listings showing price cuts (+50.3% YoY) – significantly outpacing the national increase of 17.4%. Market segments reveal contrasting realities with strategic pockets of opportunity.
Rating and 12-Month Price Forecast: Parcl Labs initiates coverage of San Diego with a Bullish rating, forecasting a 12-month price of ($596.1/sq ft, +3.1%) – just clearing our 3% threshold for a bullish designation. While a 29.6% price-cut share currently indicates buyer leverage, this Bullish outlook anticipates a market shift, supported by ongoing rebalancing. We will review this forecast if current headwinds persist.
San Diego’s absorption rate has fallen to 0.482 as supply (6,262 units) substantially outpaces demand (3,017 units), creating a 0.537 supply-demand gap – significantly wider than the national gap of 0.326. Price cuts have reached a 12-month high at 29.6%, signaling accelerating market rebalancing.
Extreme submarket divergence exists with premium ZIP 92129 showing severe correction signals (supply +137.5% YoY, prices -9.0% YoY) while Imperial County demonstrates robust appreciation (+41.5% YoY) against San Diego County’s -1.1% YoY price decline.
ZIP-level data exposes the most pronounced correction signals in premium neighborhoods, with ZIP 92129 registering a 137.5% supply increase against a 7.0% demand decline, creating a 144.5% market gap that has driven prices down 9.0% year-over-year to $1,351,000. This premium market deterioration contrasts sharply with pockets of resilient demand in ZIPs 92117, 92114, and 92056, which registered exceptional transaction growth of 28.4%, 19.8%, and 15.1% respectively. These localized demand growth areas represent tactical opportunity zones for investors seeking counter-cyclical appreciation potential amid the broader market deceleration, highlighting the importance of granular sub-market analysis in the current transitional environment.
Mid-market property segments command significant yield premiums over luxury (Mid-Century Starter: 5.28%, 1980s Suburban: 5.17% vs. Luxury Estate: 3.64%), with Vintage Family homes showing persistent buyer advantage (supply-demand gap: 0.1203) as other segments approach equilibrium.
We really should break down every sub-market.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 16, 2025 | Inventory |
The number of homes for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad is 15% above the highest count in 2024 – which was in mid-July.
Where will we be next month?
I thought many would be giving up by now, but instead more are pushing to get out. Are they aware of the difficulty, and that half won’t be selling this year?
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 15, 2025 | 2025, Market Buzz, Market Conditions
The current chaos combined with the decline of the buyer-agent is causing buyers to stay on the couch – unless they see a compelling deal online. With high rates and prices, you can’t blame them for being very picky!
Yet there are still lucky sales happening. Ones that you wouldn’t think had any chance of selling but they end up closing over list anyway with a buyer-agent who has only closed 1-2 sales in the last 12 months. It is a very treacherous environment!
https://x.com/shawngorham/status/1933371286761451703
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 15, 2025 | About Donna
Natalie wrote the thoughts above in our most recent newsletter, and others remarked how true it was in their experience too.
She carries the load around the house too. It became obvious this weekend that I’ve never operated the vacuum cleaner before.
You are a phenomenal woman, and I’m honored to be your husband – and glad you are spending your life with me! Happy Birthday Donna!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 14, 2025 | Jim's Listings and Sales |
Here’s another example of how sellers are making decisions these days.
Time to sell the family homestead where the heirs grew up. Bless her heart, their Mom lived there through to the end, just like many around Olde Carlsbad. What a great place to spend the last 60 years of your life!
Like many, the house really hasn’t been touched – it’s all original. How much do you spend to prepare it for sale….if any? There is a quality ocean view…through the power lines. The lot is large enough to split and you can add the ADUs….and be into it for another $1,000,000 to $2,000,000? I sold the house three doors to the north and you can see that they’ve added the ADU. But they paid $452,500 in 1999 – buy right so you don’t mind spending the money.
4030 Sunnyhill Dr., Carlsbad 92008
3 br/2 ba, 1,994sf
YB: 1960
Lot size: 26,100sf (0.60-acre lot)
SP: $2,000,000
As we were getting ready to go on the open market, the sellers were approached by a family friend. My list price was going to be $2,200,000 at the end of April, which is about the time that chaos and uncertainty was really starting to affect the market.
Do you gamble and go on the open market? None of these 1/2-acre lots have sold for a long time, and we speculated that there is some pent-up demand, but at what price? This is a pure fixer which turns off most buyers, but could the builders/flippers be interested? At what price?
Our clients took the sure thing.
I had dreams of the open-house extravaganza of the year, and maybe of the decade, but it was the right move – the uncertainty was too high. I had my hands full with two appraisals, but they came in at value, and we closed as agreed.
Recent JtR buyer sales:
https://www.compass.com/listing/3235-hill-street-san-diego-ca-92106/1846057962656461129/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/109-lake-ridge-circle-fallbrook-ca-92028/1795830427835087785/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/2382-primrose-avenue-vista-ca-92083/1787033577092363713/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/12215-pipit-way-san-diego-ca-92129/1789500014340330369/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/1846-olympus-loop-drive-vista-ca-92081/1774965161675019921/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/6626-halite-place-carlsbad-ca-92009/1571935113317168201/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
https://www.compass.com/listing/11653-thistle-hill-place-san-diego-ca-92130/1568249663348126825/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 14, 2025 | Where to Move
San Diego ranks #34 – you could be happier!
https://happy-city-index.com/
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 13, 2025 | 2026, Market Conditions, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim
For those potential sellers who are already writing off 2025 and plan to sell in the new year instead, note how the selling season has been starting sooner than ever. Peak pricing last year in Coastal North was in February, and this year it was January (scroll over):
The buyers’ enthusiasm tapers off after March:
If you do everything right, you should sell in the first 2-3 weeks:
Think the additional inventory this year was bad? There will be truckloads next year! Beat the rush and get out early – or just sell now!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 12, 2025 | 2025, 2026, Realtor, Realtors Talking Shop
The takeaways from the graph above will be different for different people.
Not suggested:
- Those who did negotiate probably didn’t get much of a discount.
- Most buyers and sellers were satisfied their agent was worth it.
- Better agents are prevailing.
Why is it important to Get Good Help?
The failure rate will be higher this year.
In normal markets, we’ve had a success rate of 60% to 65% of the listings closing escrow successfully. During the frenzy, it was as high as 80%! But look at what we’re faced with now.
NSDCC Total Sales/Total Listings
2024: 1,837/2,831 = 65%
2025: 716/1,549 = 46%
Obviously, this year is incomplete but I did include all of the current pendings to approximate this year’s conditions. It’s unlikely that the success rate will be improving through the second half of 2025.
It’s likely that MOST of the sellers this year will be unsuccessful.
What’s for sure? There will be a load of listings in 2026.
