Inventory Watch

The tariff tirade may be dissipating, but the effect on mortgage rates will probably last for months. Higher rates add more sluggishness to an generally-overpriced market but sellers are committed to exploring their price discovery in April. We’ll see if loosens up in May or June (doubtful).

Here is the distribution of NSDCC active listings:

Almost $1 billion worth of active listings in Rancho Santa Fe with an average list price over $10 million – wow! La Jolla and Del Mar’s averages are over $9 million!

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Zillow Views and Saves

Home sellers may have noticed a tally of saves, shares and views on their listings on Zillow and wondered how these metrics compare to other homes on the market. A new Zillow analysis reveals the ideal benchmarks that enhance the chances of selling a property faster and at a higher price and ways sellers can help their chances of standing out.

When listings go live on Zillow, home shoppers can interact with properties by viewing the listing to learn more about the home, saving the listing to view again later, or sharing the listing. Each interaction indicates buyer interest in that home, and listings with higher engagement levels tend to sell faster and at or above the list price.

How do the number of views, saves and shares measure up against other listings? Let’s dive into the numbers.

The benchmarks

Since Spring 2023, the median home listing on Zillow, went pending after 15 days, and sold at 98% of the initial listing price.

When it comes to views, 250 per day typically means a home will move to pending status in a week, with 75% of those homes sold in two weeks. Listings that initially attract more than 500 daily views are often sold for more than the list price.

Five is the magic number for daily saves. Home sellers who see their listing saved by at least five potential buyers per day typically accept an offer in a week. Listings with 10 or more saves per day tend to sell for more than the list price.

The majority of for-sale listings shared 10 or more times per day reach pending status in a week. Exceeding 20 shares per day typically means a home will sell above its list price.  Savvy sellers — with the help of their agent — can aim to boost these numbers and achieve better results.

How home sellers can help maximize sales impact

Home sellers and their agents can help their listings stand out by highlighting the most desired features. Highlighting the most sought-after amenities in listings signals to buyers that a home is appealing and modern, helping it sell faster and for more money.

Zillow research has shown calling attention to features such as outdoor TVs, soapstone countertops and outdoor showers can help home sellers command premium sale prices, while calling out attributes such as plant ledges, frameless showers and terrazzo flooring contribute to faster-than-expected sales.

https://www.zillow.com/research/save-shares-views-35038/

Homes.com vs Zillow

Everyone will be picking sides now!

Dear Jim,

This week Zillow Executive Errol Samuelson announced that homes not listed on the MLS within 24 hours of public marketing—won’t be published on Zillow “for the life of the listing.” Simply put, if your listing is not on Zillow within 24 hours, Zillow will retaliate against you and your homeowner by turning off your ability to list on Zillow. It is an incredible move of audacity and a pure power play of epic proportion.

Delayed IDX syndication is allowed under NAR rules. But Zillow is asserting that they, not NAR, not your brokerage, not you the listing agent—and not even the homeowner whose house it is and is paying the commission—should decide how a listing is marketed. This isn’t about protecting consumers. It’s about protecting Zillow’s ability to profit from your listings by selling your leads to competing agents.

Whether or not you support the Clear Cooperation Policy, it is never acceptable for a real estate portal to threaten agents this way. Real estate portals must remain neutral. Whether you’re a buyer’s agent, a listing agent, or both, we support all agents and believe you deserve better. And we believe every real estate professional deserves to be treated with fairness and respect—never bullied by a tech platform looking to control an industry.

Zillow’s lead-diversion model is anti-consumer and anti-agent. Just last week, I listened to focus groups with home sellers who believed that when a buyer clicks the “Contact Agent” button on their listings in Zillow, they’re contacting their listing agent. When they found out that wasn’t true—and that their home was being used as bait to funnel buyers to competing agents—they were outraged. One seller exclaimed, “Holy hell!” Another said, “What the…?”

Zillow’s lead diversion model hijacks your hard-earned listings to generate commission splits for them and grow their brand at your expense. As the listing agent you deserve clear, undisputed credit for your listings. When a buyer believes they are contacting the listing agent, that’s exactly who they should reach.

Homes.com is agent-friendly. We always show the listing agent—and only the listing agent—on listings. We follow the principle of Your Listing, Your Lead. That means we only display your name, your photo, your brokerage, and connect potential buyers only to you. We never take a commission split or sell leads to competing agents. Instead, we earn revenue by promoting your listing to thousands of additional buyers across the internet.

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Off-Market Sales Reality

Yesterday, reader Jim repeated the common belief about the Compass 3-Phase Marketing Plan:

Compass isn’t going this route to protect sellers – they are trying to increase their dual agency transactions which will lead to more profits for a publicly traded company. In addition to hoarding inventory which numerous studies say will not increase the selling price for a seller, Compass is trying to force agents to join their brokerage or be left out of a portion of the inventory.

I’ll agree that the Compass messaging hasn’t been great.

It hasn’t acknowledged that selling homes before they go on the open market is a VERY sensitive topic. Observers are quick to assume that the money-grubbing agents only care about padding their wallets, and not what is best for consumers. It does appear that way, though a case can be made that in a soft market it might be better for the sellers to not risk a listing launch failure.

When the first phase of our 3-Phase Marketing Plan is called Private Exclusives and we publicly declare that’s where we ‘test pricing’ among other Compass agents only, it’s natural for outsiders to assume we’re making deals there.

But nobody within Compass is pushing it – in fact, there is no organized effort to arrange off-market sales. It’s the category where a new listing starts out on our platform, and most have no photos, descriptions, or showing instructions.

How is it working?

The graph above shows the monthly sales between January 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025.

There were 155 of the 2,234 sales (7%) that showed zero days on market, which is the universal sign of an off-market sale. There is a MLS rule that states all sales must be inputted into the MLS at some point, and the glee with which the listing agents display their off-market escapades is remarkable. I doubt I’m missing any.

Of the 155 off-market sales:

Compass agents had 37, or 24%

Three-quarters of all off-market sales are done by non-Compass agents!

All the complaining comes from industry veterans and the ivory-tower types. You won’t hear ANY agents on the street complain about round-tripping their listings off-market – they are proud of them!

The Compass NSDCC market share is ~30%, so the 24% sounds right.

Of the 37 Compass off-market sales:

Only 25 were sold to Compass buyers

So there it is – the off-market sales within the Compass brokerage amount to about 1% of the total sales. It’s hard to believe that another 12 were sold to outside agents, which shows that selling to other Compass agents isn’t a priority. Completing a sexy off-market sale with any agent is the goal!

Has Reffkin’s relentless battle against the CCP caused any changes?

It started soon after the NAR Settlement began on August 17th, so let’s compare (I stretched out the time period to Apr 15th to get about the same number of sales in each sample):

There hasn’t been any discernible change in the number of off-market sales between Compass agents.

This hot topic provides our competitors an opportunity to dogpile on Compass and Robert Reffkin, which is fine. We are taking a very public stance about the CCP.

You don’t hear ANYONE talking about eliminating off-market sales. NOBODY!

The Clear Cooperation Policy allows for off-market sales within a brokerage, and EVERY company is doing them.

If you ever hear industry leaders demanding a change regarding off-market sales – and not just beating the crap out of Compass – then you know their intentions are pure.

I have yet to hear one.

San Diego Inventory

The March new listings in the San Diego metro area look good with our 12.7% being one of the lowest national increases year-over-year (above).

But after a few months of this, the unsolds are starting to stack up:

Buyers don’t seem to mind, and for them it can only get better because a few sellers will run out of patience and lower their price. Wouldn’t it be a kick if most sellers dumped on price before the year is out!

https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-f08

Compass vs. Zillow

Yesterday, Zillow released a statement….an excerpt:

Our standards are straightforward: If a listing is marketed directly to consumers without being listed on the MLS and made widely available where buyers search for homes, it will not be published on Zillow. These new standards will go into effect on Zillow and Trulia in May 2025.

Now we have NAR, the MLS, and Zillow putting restrictions on how sellers and their agents can market their homes. We’ll see what the DOJ says about it!

Our fearless leader, Robert Reffkin, says we’re not changing anything.

Zillow teamed up with eXp to make the announcement, and included a link to the eXp website, where you can find their eXp Exclusives. Either eXp has failed to alter/delete their Exclusives or Zillow is leaving room for the permitted intraoffice sales. Compass calls ours the Private Exclusives and I can set up a collection of them for a client to peruse.

If Zillow is fine with Private Exclusives – and how would they know about them – then I don’t mind being in full compliance. It eliminates the Coming Soon option which is a waste of time anyway.

If Zillow finagles a way to find out about our Private Exclusives and bans them too, then the war is on. Hopefully it will be a quick, one shot war and we can get on with the future of selling homes.

I think Compass would quit the NAR, MLS systems, and Zillow, and we make a deal with Homes.com to send them our listings exclusively. We will want to partner with a national search portal to appease our sellers and agents who want more coverage than what’s available with compass.com. Homes.com would love the boost!

Our Private Exclusives are registered with the MLS. If they rat us out and give our Private Exclusives to Zillow, then quitting all of them would be in order.

More on Pocket Listings

Let’s talk more about my two favorite topics this week:

  1. Be Bold and Forge Ahead, in spite of the distractions.
  2. Off-market sales.

If you are a potential home buyer or seller who is chuckling to yourself about my lame attempt to instill some hope into the marketplace, take a look at these.

All of these sales happened off-market, and none of them were listed by Compass agents. Reffkin is taking the heat these days, but off-market sales have been around for decades and there is a real chance that they will prevail as a popular choice for sellers.

Consider the pricing on these.

Because they aren’t on the open market, the buyers don’t have the usual test of the price: Are there other offers?  It takes guts to pay all the money in this environment!

Almost $6,000,000 in Olivenhain? This isn’t Rancho Santa Fe, and it’s not even in the gated Wildflower Estates. Yet the buyer paid cash for the house (above) without a market test or obvious comps nearby. Gutsy!

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The La Jolla home above was listed for $4,980,000 with one of the most successful La Jolla agents – but it didn’t sell. Being on the market between April and August of 2024 was a good test, so the only conclusion is that it wasn’t worth the $4,980,000 then. Yet a different agent takes the listing and finds a buyer who paid within 2% of the price that we know it wasn’t worth last year:

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The house below was a standard 1972 all-original tract house in Olde Carlsbad when it listed for $1,400,000 last April. Kudos to the listing agent who got it bid up to $1,625,000! The buyer and their agent completed a nice renovation and less than a year later they sell it off-market for almost $1,000,000 more!

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The sellers had been here for 40+ years and typically that means the house looked a lot like it did in 1977. The cash buyer was an LLC so it’s probably a flip and this is an area that can handle sales of $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 so I’m sure they know what they are doing. But they will need to add some square footage to get up to that level and the bigger views are across the street (the hill slopes up to right):

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The common denominators:

  1. All sold for retail, or retail-plus.
  2. Selling off-market was the first choice.
  3. Agents marked them ‘sold off-market’ with pride. A badge of honor!

Off-market sales are happening in EVERY brokerage, and they are SEXY! They are pitched to buyers as a way to avoid a bidding war and finally get what they want – they just have to pay the seller’s price!

Compass isn’t trying too hard to sell listings off-market. Our push is more about avoiding future lawsuits and retaining the control of where and when the listing gets advertised.

But this is an ideal environment for off-market sales to flourish. There’s too much noise and distractions in the regular market and making quiet deals off-market sounds attractive to both sellers and buyers. It might be an easier place for buyers to have the guts!

And then there is this – the tail trying to wag the dog. What are they going to do? Send in James Bond to crack our security code and monitor our Private Exclusives? Or NAR or MLS rats us out? (our PE listings are registered with them)

It will be something like this that breaks down the whole system once and for all:

Adverse Uncertainty

Now what?

Let’s reflect on recent history, because it’s the only history that is relevant.

Flush with equity, how do home sellers react when faced with adverse uncertainty?

We have recent experience….Covid-19!

In the first couple of months after that drastic game-changing event began, the local real estate market froze up. Full paralysis.

I told Donna, “I don’t know if we’re going to sell another home this year!”

In 2008, the recent purchasers had little, if any, equity and felt deceived by their exotic financing choices. They hit the panic button in an effort to recoup any equity that was left!

There won’t be any panic today. Homeowners are more comfortable than they were in 2008 and 2020 – and they’re sitting on piles of equity. Some might give their house away, but not many. It’s too easy to wait until “it’s a better time to sell”!

Home sales will likely slow as sellers and agents wonder what to do.

But risk and reward ride the same elevator!

Be Bold. Take Action!

We are used to the chaos, and are numb to it by now. There will be more chaos tomorrow, next week, and for the next 90 days. Might as well get on with those plans for your life!

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