Negotiable?

One year after the National Association of Realtors agreed, as part of a legal settlement, to change a key rule on real estate commissions — a rule that had long upheld a tradition of commissions between 5 and 6 percent, little has changed.

What was hailed as a watershed has so far produced a mere drizzle.

Some economists predicted the rule change would upend the business model and bring competition to a long-stilted marketplace, breaking the standard 6 percent rate — one of the highest rates in the world — and forcing down home prices as a result.

Though average commissions appear to be slipping, industry watchdogs say that Realtors and their brokerages have used workarounds and pressure on sellers like Mr. Chambers to subvert the settlement. So far, they’re finding success.

“The industry understood the threat to 5 or 6 percent rates right away, so looked for opportunities to discourage negotiation,” said Stephen Brobeck, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Consumer Policy Center, who has been vocal about the need for greater consumer awareness in the real estate industry.

Read full article here:

Link to article

Inventory Watch

The climb in the number of active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad took a break and only rose by two. Here’s how the actives and pendings compare to the last two years in mid-March:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings, Mid-March

The 25% YoY increase in the number of actives doesn’t seem to bother the buyers!

All that matters is what will the sellers do who are left out of the party? Will they bang the door down with a big price reduction?

Or pack it up and wait for the market to ‘pick up’?

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Goodyear, AZ

Ok, ok – I know you don’t want to leave San Diego.

But for those who gotta do something, check this out.

  • Toll Brothers, one of the best tract builders around – maybe the best around.
  • Brand new one-story homes in the $400,000s
  • Below-market mortgage rates.

Yes, you will have a lot of $$ once I’m done selling your house here. But if you only want to use $100,000 of it and finance the rest, your payment at 5.49% is only $2,087/month! Your social security will cover that!

They have standing inventory – six homes are available for quick move-in. Get yourself one today!

https://www.tollbrothers.com/luxury-homes-for-sale/Arizona/Beacon-in-Estrella

Pick Up The Pace

Since October, I’ve been blabbing on and on how there were several reasons why the pent-up supply was finally going to bust loose in 2025.

If you want to sell your house this year, you better get on it.

It’s more than just an isolated or local thing. Look at the stats above – there is a cultural/communal thing where there are more homes for sale everywhere.

The cheerleaders will be bantering about how the locked-in effect is loosening and we’re just getting back to normal. But they will shut up in another couple of months when they don’t know what to make of it.

Even if the total number of listings isn’t much higher than last year (NSDCC total listings = +9% YoY for first two months), more are not selling. The unsold listings will be stacking up by June. Or May. It will probably cause buyers to be more hesitant, and that’s saying a lot because they are already being fairly cautious.

We have four listings to roll out over the next month, and while we would never launch before we’re absolutely ready, I’m encouraging everyone to expedite!

Klinge Realty Group, 2025

The proofs of our new photos are in!

I thought this photo captured the current state of the Klinge Realty Group:

It’s not all about me any more, and everyone is quite happy about that!

From left to right:

Richard Morgan: Team member since 2009 and all-around great guy. Last year was his best ever.

Natalie Klinge: Pro dancer, KRG marketing director since 2020, taking real-estate license test next week!

Donna Klinge: The boss. The most loving, caring boss ever, but still the boss.

Jim Klinge: Licensed broker since 1988, and just getting started. Last year was the best ever.

Michele Bockelman (seated): New mom, yoga instructor, great agent.

Lisa Belasco: Our swiss-army knife – she can do it all. Last year was her best ever.

Kayla Klinge: New York City sales and rentals specialist, great agent!

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/meet-the-team/

Though it will be years before Natalie officially takes over, the succession plans are being actively discussed and this is the group who will usher her into the next generation of the KRG! Kayla will run the Manhattan version of the Klinge Realty Group, and once Natalie’s dance career winds up, she will take over here!

What’s new around here? Yesterday, I authorized a new look for the blog – coming soon!

Beach Hut

It’s rare to find a 10,000sf usable lot this close to the beach, so you really can’t blame buyers for paying $1,977,000 (list was $2,050,000). Everything that’s wrong here can be fixed with money:

Compass Looking At Berkshire Next

Here’s the full story so far but you know what triggered this move.

Warren has to be as madder than Reffkin over the arbitrary penalties from the NAR, and their vig was 5x what Compass had to pay:

What will be the impact locally?

Combining the #1 and #2 brokerages will give us 1,800 to 2,000 agents who did $10 billion in volume last year. It should give us at least 30% market share in San Diego County, which is what Reffkin wants to have in the Top 30 metro areas. There will probably be more consolidations too.

If you’re an agent, come on over!

Off-Market Sales and The Future

Everyone talks badly about Robert Reffkin/Compass and our stand against the CCP.

It’s because the industry is so sensitive about the thought of agents hoarding their listings off-market to sell them to their own buyers or to buyers represented by other in-house agents. To what extent it is actually happening doesn’t matter – just the thought bugs people.

Off-market sales have happened at all brokerages since the beginning of time. But for those who believe that every home should be exposed to all buyers, it makes them think that shenanigans are in play.

On February 21st, I did this blog post where I described reasons for sellers and agents to sell off-market:

  • The allure of an insider deal can cause a buyer to pay more – they are sexy deals.
  • Buyers don’t have the benefit of open-market exposure to test the price.
  • It keeps the bozo agents from screwing up deals.

When forming opinions about off-market sales, let’s factor in the market conditions.

We are screaming towards a buyer’s market, and it’s already upon us in some areas. The last time we had a buyer’s market was fifteen years ago – which nobody remembers – and it’s been the exact opposite over the last five years.

You will know it’s a buyer’s market when you hear more people saying that it’s not a good time to sell.

It will lead to conversations like this: “Hey Jim, I’ve heard horror stories from friends and family who are trying to sell their home and nobody is coming by – they have no showings!”

“I don’t want that to happen to me, so sell my house by any means necessary. I still want all my money, and if you think selling my house off-market will accomplish that, then do it!”

When potential sellers see unsold listings stacking up, they are going to consider alternatives, but:

  1. Selling to an instant-cash flipper might seem more enticing, except they want a 30% discount.
  2. Renting the house out is a terrible idea if you think prices might go down later.
  3. Going on the open market at less than the dream price doesn’t sound good either.

In a buyer’s market, the selling choices seem bleak. It causes potential sellers to jump at a sexy option like selling off-market – if that will get them their money. They aren’t going to take a discount off-market. Instead, they will imagine that it’s the best chance to sell for their price, which is all that matters to them.

Yesterday’s bombshell announcement that Ketchmark will be suing the brokerages that support the Clear Cooperation Policy should be the end of the CCP. Who wants more lawsuits?

Reffkin’s hardball stance against the CCP is very understandable when you consider how we got here.

The quasi-governing body known as the National Association of Realtors casually walks into a Missouri court room and gets their lunch handed to them. Then they settled on behalf of the brokerages? Who gave you the power to levy a $52 million fine against Compass without a chance to defend ourselves? Plus, you’ve done nothing to prevent future lawsuits from happening!

Unfortunately, the anger over how the NAR mis-handled the lawsuit/settlement has turned into a battle about the CCP, when they are two different things. If NAR would step up their game and end the threat of lawsuits while providing expert guidance on the CCP issue, then we might listen. But there is no faith that they will do anything, so we need to defend ourselves while providing our own solutions for our clients.

Reffkin is promoting Private Exclusives as part of a 3-Phase marketing plan in order to offer a comprehensive marketing solution. There is no push by Compass management to sell homes off-market. Behind the scenes, all we have is a simple one-liner list of homes throughout the county, and most of them have no photos, no descriptions, and can’t be shown because they are being prepared to go to market. That’s not a vibrant off-market sales environment – it’s just a parking lot. I struggle to even look at it because there’s nothing there. At least not yet.

Yesterday there were 287 Compass private exclusives in San Diego County, and there are 4,653 houses, condos, and mobilehomes actively for sale on the MLS today. How many PEs are going to sell off-market each month? Maybe five or ten? It’s the same at other brokerages and it’s been the norm for 100+ years.

But it has promise because the sellers are going to want an alternative in a buyer’s market.

Though the off-market listings might look sexy to buyers, they better get good help on pinpointing the value under the current market conditions. It is why buyers should embrace bidding wars – because when there isn’t one, it tells you something too.

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