People keep saying that the inventory is low, but it means that there’s not a lot of active listings sitting around not selling (which will be the sign that the frenzy is over). Let’s determine whether the inventory has actually been lower than normal by comparing the number of sales to previous years:
The inventory must be fine, considering the number of 2021 sales in EVERY area were at least the median number of their five-year group, or higher, and the highlighted counts were the BEST of the five-year group. The total of 3,176 will probably increase in the coming months and end up #5 of all-time!
If you are a buyer and feel stymied by the lack of inventory, you may want to reconsider. It’s more likely that you’re not moving fast enough, you’re not doing it right, or you’re on the outside looking in.
Last year, home buyers viewed a median of eight homes before purchasing — the lowest number on record, according to research from the National Association of REALTORS®. That’s fewer than in 2009 and 2011, when housing inventory was more plentiful and buyers viewed a median of 12 homes before buying.
Among the median eight homes viewed by buyers, three were viewed online only with the help of virtual and video tours as well as virtual open houses, according to NAR data.
The new listings of 2022 are only trickling out, but we know that there can be spurts.
We’re seeing one underway in Encinitas Ranch, where five listings are hitting the market this week! The three Coming-Soons will all change to active listings on Saturday.
Buyers – there is hope!
Whenever there are two or more homes for sale in a neighborhood, there is one fact of life:
Either yours is selling mine, or mine is selling yours.
The chances of EVERY house being perfectly priced to reflect their condition AND compare favorably to all other choices is about the same as the Padres chances of winning the World Series. It’s possible every year, but come on.
There are times when NONE are perfectly priced, causing a stalemate and no sales.
The market is hot enough that at least one of these listings will compare more favorably than the rest, and will sell this weekend. With few or no other choices for sale currently, the ultra-hot frenzy conditions could pick up two of more of these listings.
Let’s see how many go pending in the next seven days!
Hat tip to Rob for the intro to Sevana, who describes her musical sound as “every sound but with a Jamaican filter. Like if a modern Anita Baker was Jamaican and was creating music for Jamaica.”
Fed policy is critically important to interest rates and January has marked a shift in the Fed policy outlook. In not so many words, the Fed sees itself hiking rates and decreasing its bond purchased more quickly than previously expected. It has conveyed this in various ways since the beginning of the month. Today’s policy announcement and press conference were just the latest iterations. They were also arguably the least equivocal.
Despite the relatively clear communication from the Fed in recent weeks, financial markets were increasingly laboring under the misapprehension that the Fed would take a softer tone in light of recent market drama. In other words, stocks have dropped significantly and rates spiked to 2 year highs as the Fed began its communication push this month, so perhaps they would “communicate” in a more market-friendly way today.
While it’s not uncommon for some market participants to hope for such things, it was never very likely in this case (one of the reasons I reiterated that the Fed is not tasked with babysitting the market in yesterday’s commentary). True to form, the Fed paid zero attention to recent market movement. In their view, rates are still low, and asset prices are elevated. If anything, they feel they need to hustle when it comes to hiking rates and decreasing bond purchases.
Bottom line, the market was a bit flat-footed heading into today’s Fed events. When the Fed stuck to the tightening script rather religiously, rates were forced to snap back to the reality they’d previously done a good job of understanding. Case in point, Treasury yields and mortgage rates are both very close to levels seen last Monday. Mortgage rates just happen to have edged slightly higher, thus earning the dubious distinction of “highest in 2 years.”
What will happen to our local real estate market now?
Speaking of misapprehension, the potential buyers who think home prices will come down will be disappointed. Not only will sellers ignore such frivolity, there will be enough motivated buyers who don’t care either. If they don’t mind paying $300,000 over list price, then they’re not going to care about a silly rate hike.
The coming Fed rate hike in March appears to be already priced in. Mortgage rates have gone up 1/2% this month, and the Fed will probably only raise their rate by 1/4% next month. We could see slightly better mortgage rates 60 days from now.
In the past, homebuyers have rushed to purchase before rates went up, and I think that will be the case this time too…..if there is only something to buy! We have had 150 NSDCC listings this month so far, which is dreadful. Last January we had 288 listings! Link to contest.
The median sales price went up 28% YoY, and the number of $2,000,000+ sales went up 66%!
The number of listings is deceiving because listing agents don’t have to refresh their listings any more. There were 580 expired/cancelled/withdrawn listings in 2021, and the number was 1,888 in 2019 – so the number of properties offered for sale each year were probably more similar than we thought.
Rob Hahn and I had a conversation about the state of buyer agency – which might only interest realtors, if anybody – but we also got into the idea of home auctions too:
We can see how MoM pricing started to slow at end of summer, only to have it pick up again in 4Q21:
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Mortgage rates didn’t move much in October and November, holding between 3% and 3.25% for the average on the popular 30-year fixed. While that was slightly higher than the early summer levels, it was still historically low and considerably lower than where rates are now. Rates are now about 75 basis points above year-ago levels. Low rates over the last two years have given buyers more purchasing power and consequently fueled today’s sky-high prices.
“We should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices,” added Lazzara.
A recent report from Realtor.com found that 14 out of the top 50 largest U.S. cities experienced listing price declines over the prior year in December.
We had 1,782 new listings of houses and condos last month, in a county of 3.3 million people? And only 1,332 active listings (I believe that is the count at the end of the month). Look at Phoenix and Las Vegas for comparison, where they have 2x and 3x as many listings.
If we get a surge of inventory, it would just make the frenzy conditions even hotter!
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
