Yesterday I was delivering pies throughout North County, and visiting with our great supporters - who were mostly past clients. Predictably, the conversation turns to real estate, and observations about what's going on in the market, now and in the future. In case...
Could we have a decent spring selling season next year? Is there any precedent of our market settling down that quickly? Home sales had been struggling for months, and then the Lehman Brothers collapse in September, 2008 helped to trigger the Great Recession, and...
In California, about 70% of the outstanding mortgages have a mortgage rate below 4%, which means it's unlikely that many of those homeowners will move if they have to qualify for and accept a much-higher rate. Plus, about 30% of local homeowners don't have a mortgage....
Next year, everyone will be talking about how mortgage rates in the 7s or 8s will be causing a lack of affordability, but I have bad news for those who still want to buy. There probably won't be many homes for sale. It will only take one or two headlines about the...
I tell potential home buyers to keep looking because you never know when you will find the right house - which is the most important part of the equation. Most will convince themselves that it will be easier to find the right house if prices came down, and besides,...
Housing Bubble Set to Pop By John Burns In 2013, fresh off the biggest housing downturn in their lifetimes, 73 housing industry executives compiled the Top 10 Signs of a Housing Market Bubble at our Summit Conference in Laguna Beach, CA. Assessing the criteria that we...
Dr. Doom said in his podcast here that the California markets have had the most significant price declines, and the Bay Area, LA, and San Diego have 'gotten creamed'. He didn't provide any data to back it up, so let's look at what we have from the MLS which includes...
I mentioned in my very first blog post seventeen years ago that all it takes to achieve 20% to 25% annual appreciation is for everyone to pay a little more than the last guy. The same principle works in reverse too. San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes...
The final accuracy of any guess on appreciation doesn't matter. We all know that they are just guesses. What matters is whether home buyers and sellers will make decisions today, based on what they read. If I keep showing data and forecasts that show pricing isn't...
If rates would stay around 5% over the next four quarters, the market should digest it and get comfortable with the new era. But how reliable are these experts? After all, they are the mortgage business - shouldn't their forecasts be pretty close? Well, hmm, no:
