is forecasting that the San Diego-Carlsbad metro area will have prices dropping 27% in 2023, but also conclude that fewer sales (-23.7%) will make our area more affordable. They combine the two and call it +3.6% combined growth.

They base their forecast on the lack of affordability, which ignores how many, if not most, buyers are using a hefty down payment to keep their monthly payments more reasonable.

If there was a severe price dump in 2023 like they are describing, the sellers wouldn’t go for it, and the inventory would dry up.  Just about every potential seller has to be thinking that they have already given up a certain percentage of their equity in 2022 (off their inflated sense of value), and waiting it out sounds way better than coughing up another 20%.

But this is the type of garbage that could get into people’s head, and whether it’s realistic or not doesn’t matter as much as the perception. Thanks!

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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