Round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows!
John Coltrane performing Naima, which was his first wife’s name:
This appears to be legit – love it:
Have you seen how some of the list prices have gone ballistic lately?
You can see above how the red ‘Sold’ price-per-sf trend line has been increasing moderately, but the 90-day average list pricing has taken off over the last few months (in blue).
What is causing the recent enthusiasm among sellers?
The inventory is still low – lower than last year. But there are more sales happening in 2015, in spite of fewer choices and higher prices!
These are San Diego charts, but the same in true in NSDCC, where we had 1,259 sales between January 1st and June 15, 2014, and this year there were 1,349 sales – which is a 7% increase in NSDCC sales year-over-year.
In 2013 we had 1,497 sales.
Here are the active listings and sales counts below:
Though this chart doesn’t show all of 2013, it is incredible to see that today’s inventory is back around those levels when we were in the full frenzy!
It’s a slightly different mix – we’ve had fewer NSDCC listings this year than in 2013. But the frenzy fever looks very similar on paper!
How long can it last? Have you seen an occasional neighborhood that has for-sale signs piling up? Coastal tract houses in the $1M to $2M range are particular susceptible. There are 367 houses for sale in that range currently, which isn’t exactly panic time, because there were 127 that closed in the last 30 days!
But those were the plums – the best available. What happens to the rest?
I know it seems like summer just started, and we’ll probably keep getting enough happy news to keep the party rolling (like Case-Shiller next Tuesday).
But those are reflecting ancient history now. By the time we get to August, the inventory will be so picked over that we should hit stall speed!
Get Good Help!
How long before sellers let buyers stay overnight? From HW:
Realtor.com and Airbnb have teamed up to allow potential homebuyers to “live like a local” by experiencing a specific neighborhood before purchasing.
Visitors to realtor.com will be able to book accommodations nationwide on Airbnb ranging from single-family homes to condos, lofts and other properties located near their desired neighborhood.
Consumers who visit realtor.com to look at homes in new neighborhoods can select the option to “Airbnb before buying.”
The California Association of Realtors does a phone survey every month of 300 realtors (there are more than 250,000 licensees in the state). They don’t offer any analysis on what their data means, or how to digest it – just the results:
• 40% of transactions are closing below asking price, 34% are closing above asking price, and 26% are closing at asking. The discount on asking price is 7%, on average, down for the first time in 4 months. The premium paid over asking price is 8%, on average, down from 10% in April, but up from 6.5% in May 2014.
• 65% of properties are receiving multiple offers, down from 72% in April and up from 62% in May 2014. The average number of offers per property declined for the first time in 3 months to 2.8, from 3.6 in April.
• The proportion of homes that had listing price reductions decreased from 28% in April to 25% in May.
• Floor calls, listing appointments, and open house traffic are up when compared to last month.
• Auctions are down from last month.
• All cash purchases are flat from last month
• Open house traffic and all cash purchases are up from last year.
• Open house traffic is up compared to a year ago.
• Auctions and all cash purchases are down from last year.
• The majority of members expect the same or better market conditions over the next year.
Great news for sellers! A third of you will get 8% over your price, a quarter of you will get your price, and the rest will have to live with a 7% discount. 😆
Seriously, if these results show anything, it’s that the ‘market’ is a mixed bag – and more random than ever. The houses that are selling are those that are relatively-well-fixed-up and priced attractively, and those owned by sellers who can live with a discount for doing little or no repairs/improvements. Make sure you pay the right price, for the right product!
From the latimes.com:
What will Southern California look like in the future?
The Times asked this question back in 1988, when 60% of the population was white and it took only 15 minutes to zip down the freeway from the Valley to downtown L.A. Planning experts crunched some numbers and gave their best guess for 2010. Some of their projections came pretty close. Other changes since the 1980s took everyone by surprise. Studying these numbers helped officials rethink what it might be like by 2040.
Read full article here:
Reader Chet noticed that the average pricing in our $800,000 – $1,400,000 group is at its lowest LP-per-sf since we started tracking the NSDCC inventory in November 2013. The number of houses for sale in that category has also risen 37% in the last 12 weeks!
There will probably be one more buying surge over the next 30 days that will pick off the rest of the motivated sellers. After that, the Fed Watch for their September meeting should help to stagnate the market further.
Won’t unsuccessful sellers lower their prices as summer winds down? It’s more likely they will cancel and try again next year.
Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:
Visitors to today’s open house were very complimentary about the staging, and it does assist those who have trouble visualizing how to furnish a house. The next-door neighbor at first wondered why we didn’t stage it sooner, but then mentioned that he doesn’t understand why it is needed.
This is a selfie film – If you are watching in front of a regular-sized computer screen, you may want to back up several feet before hitting the play button:
New photos, new staging, and new price!
Richard and I will be there today for open house, 12-3pm – come by for a look: