Have you seen how some of the list prices have gone ballistic lately?
You can see above how the red ‘Sold’ price-per-sf trend line has been increasing moderately, but the 90-day average list pricing has taken off over the last few months (in blue).
What is causing the recent enthusiasm among sellers?
The inventory is still low – lower than last year. But there are more sales happening in 2015, in spite of fewer choices and higher prices!
These are San Diego charts, but the same in true in NSDCC, where we had 1,259 sales between January 1st and June 15, 2014, and this year there were 1,349 sales – which is a 7% increase in NSDCC sales year-over-year.
In 2013 we had 1,497 sales.
Here are the active listings and sales counts below:
Though this chart doesn’t show all of 2013, it is incredible to see that today’s inventory is back around those levels when we were in the full frenzy!
It’s a slightly different mix – we’ve had fewer NSDCC listings this year than in 2013. But the frenzy fever looks very similar on paper!
How long can it last? Have you seen an occasional neighborhood that has for-sale signs piling up? Coastal tract houses in the $1M to $2M range are particular susceptible. There are 367 houses for sale in that range currently, which isn’t exactly panic time, because there were 127 that closed in the last 30 days!
But those were the plums – the best available. What happens to the rest?
I know it seems like summer just started, and we’ll probably keep getting enough happy news to keep the party rolling (like Case-Shiller next Tuesday).
But those are reflecting ancient history now. By the time we get to August, the inventory will be so picked over that we should hit stall speed!
Get Good Help!
observations from my neck of the woods in NE Carlsbad:
3 model match homes like mine are sitting and waiting for an acceptable offer. One backs to College, one backs to neighbor, and the other backs to power lines. All three listed within the same range at under a million.
I can see from my back yard a brand new build that is listed by the developer at a hair under 1 million; it is also awaiting a suitor.
To my west I have been watching the Toll Brothers lots take shape.
The brand new homes at Casero are just about all sold out. Those are in the 8-900k range with no mello-roos.
what does all of this mean? I have no clue. But I’m sure JtR has some insight.
Get good help indeed.