Will Ferrell

by | Mar 13, 2015 | About the author, Bubbleinfo TV | 4 comments

I lived in Phoenix for eight years when I was a kid, but never went to a spring training game – there were only a few teams then, and they played during the day when we were in school.

As the Cactus League has grown, I’ve wanted to go to a game over the last few years – but never got around to it because this is the busy season for realtors too. But with urging from wifey and others, we picked a game and went for it last night:

Anti-Bubble

by | Mar 13, 2015 | Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market | 15 comments

A big difference between today and the bubble years is the type of financing being used.  Back when the Tan Man was pushing exploding ARMs, more than 70% of the buyers took him up on it – today, more than 80% are choosing a fixed rate mortgage:

ARMs history

Plus, those who get stuck not being able to pay when their ARM increases can always loan mod out of it!

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/the-iron-grip-of-arms-on-california-real-estate/7324/

Keith Moon

by | Mar 11, 2015 | Wednesday Rock Blogging | 7 comments

Last week the conversation was stirred up about old rock vs. new rock, and whether any of the new bucks can hold a candle to the original rockers:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2015/03/04/1970/

It got started when discussing the Who, and while there may not be a definitive answer to old vs. new, there’s not much argument about who is the best drummer in the history of rock-and-roll – Keith Moon (h/t to daytrip):

Bidding Wars/Auctions

by | Mar 11, 2015 | Auctions, Bidding Wars, The Future

We are shambling our way towards using an auction format to sell houses, but then again I was the idiot who thought we’d have video tours of every listing by now!

From the WaPo:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/10/a-legacy-of-the-housing-bubble-that-wont-go-away-home-bidding-wars/

They find, in research published in the journal Real Estate Economics, that only around 3 to 4 percent of homes on the market across the country were selling in bidding wars for years prior to the bubble. Then at the bubble’s peak, nearly 30 percent of homes in metropolitan D.C. were selling this way, the highest share of any metro Han and Strange studied. The same was true of about 22 percent of home sales in Baltimore and Norfolk, 23 percent in Las Vegas and 26 percent in Los Angeles.

Since the housing collapse, these crazy numbers have declined, but not back to their earlier levels. As prices have fallen and the number of home sales has, too, bidding wars haven’t disappeared apace. That means that we’re probably seeing not just a lingering effect of the housing bubble, or even a pure product of high housing demand, but a new strategy for selling homes that was embraced during the bubble.

“The persistence of this suggests that people have decided that this is a good way to think about selling these kinds of goods,” Strange says, “selling housing in a more auction-like way.”

If a list price once meant the seller’s ceiling, for many homes it’s now the buyer’s floor — the number with which the auction can begin. Part of what’s going on here, Strange says, isn’t just that the small supply of homes for sale continues to push up their price in certain markets like D.C. (bidding wars still made up about 12 percent of sales here as of 2010). Real estate agents are also strategically listing homes below their value to create bidding wars.

“One way to see all of this is that housing is this incredibly important good, it’s easily the most important asset in a typical household’s portfolio. As a share of total wealth, housing is huge,” Strange says. “And yet, the way houses are getting marketed, very broadly speaking nowadays, is an awful lot like it was 50 years ago.”

If you’re a buyer or a seller, you sign a contract with a real-estate agent who understands what’s going on a lot better than you do. They negotiate on your behalf and split a commission, typically about 6 percent. The way information is traded — through home visits, negotiations and market comparisons — is more or less how it’s been done for decades. For most of this time, buyers would set an aspirational price, then negotiate down from there.

“With the rise of bidding wars, we shouldn’t think that the housing market — like other markets — is just going to keep doing things in the old traditional ways forever and ever,” Strange says. “There are going to be changes.”

“People are making these million-dollar trades,” Strange says of homebuyers. “But we really don’t know that much about the housing market, where it’s going, what demand and supply are. It’s an amateur market where people are making these huge, huge decisions.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/10/a-legacy-of-the-housing-bubble-that-wont-go-away-home-bidding-wars/

Driverless

by | Mar 10, 2015 | The Future | 1 comment

driverless

Driverless cars and trucks are here, and it’s just a matter of time before they are widespread. How will they change real estate?  Will people be more comfortable living further out in the sticks?

From Mish:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/03/driverless-cars-and-trucks-who-wants.html

Heck, I like to drive and I would appreciate the chance to play cards or work on my computer instead of driving.

Think this is years from the road? Think again. It is Cruising the Streets of San Francisco right now.

“The electric hybrid system has a total range of 1,100 kilometres, including around 200 kilometres of battery-powered driving and around 900 kilometres on the electricity from the fuel cell. This enables the F 015 Luxury in Motion to cover distances similar to those of a comparable diesel-engined car, but purely on electric power with zero local emissions.”

Baby Boomers Downsizing?

by | Mar 10, 2015 | Boomer Liquidations, Boomers | 17 comments

The baby boomer liquidation sale isn’t panning out just yet.  There are boomers buying a bigger homes to house multiple generations, and there are those who want to enitce more visits from the grandkids.  From nbcnews.com:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/recession-dims-americans-fall-out-love-smaller-homes-n313451

Homeowners’ post-recession fling with smaller dwellings has fizzled, and Baby Boomers aren’t downsizing as expected.

Real estate site Trulia found that 43 percent of more than 2,000 online survey respondents want “somewhat” or “much” bigger homes than their current residences. This might be expected among younger adults with growing families — more than 60 percent of respondents under 35 want a bigger home — but even their parents still feel cramped.

Although Boomers are most likely to be satisfied with the size of their current homes, the conventional wisdom that these empty nesters would downsize to smaller homes later in life turned out to not be the case. “It is a bit contrary,” said Trulia housing economist Ralph McLaughlin. “According to our survey, we are finding that almost as many of them want larger homes.”

While 21 percent of Baby Boomers want a smaller house, the highest percentage of any age bracket, the number who still want to go bigger is five percentage points higher. Last year, Fannie Mae noted that Boomers displayed no hurry to trade in their houses for retirement condos.

“It is pretty surprising,” McLaughlin said, adding that there are probably multiple explanations for the enduring preference for bigger homes. Retiring Boomers may be moving out of urban areas and into communities where they can get more square footage for their money. They might want larger spaces so their kids and grandkids can come visit without feeling cramped.

Or, they might not want to give up their toys just yet. “It could also be the case that Boomers are also going to stay more active and need space for all the activities they stay engaged in,” McLaughlin said.

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