Casanova wondered if producing this blog is a full-time job.
No, it’s still part-time, and just a reflection of what I do everyday – without bulldozing my client’s rights to privacy. I love to work, and get after it early every day.
Yesterday Mike B. and I were on the road by 6:00am, looking at several fixers with plans to be back in time for the radio show with Rich.
So when you see these clips, know that it’s all in a day’s work for me. I can help you too:
Hello, and welcome to blog talk radio with Rich Toscano!
For a reference point, everyone knows his blog: http://piggington.com/
Here is a link to one of his more-recent articles that we’ll be discussing tonight:
http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_november_2011
Click here to listen to the show (starting with a blast from Billy Zoom):
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jim-the-realtor/2012/01/24/real-estate-with-jim-the-realtor
From HW:
A panel on the future of mortgage financing in the United States predicts a government-led initiative to sell distressed properties in bulk. Also, they say Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be around for quite some time despite congressional efforts to wind down the government-sponsored enterprises.
“When the conservatorship was established, we thought it would be a timeout for six months,” said Federal Housing Finance Agency Chief Economist Patrick Lawler. “It’s been three years and five months with no end in sight.”
Lawler said the FHFA is working to move Fannie and Freddie into the future, and good progress is being made. A big challenge is anticipating the market direction of the mortgage industry, Lawler added.
Jerry Diamond, a managing director at Annaly Capital Management and director of its related real estate investment trust Chimera Investment, said the recent hike in guarantee fees at the GSEs essentially keep the firms around for another 10 years. He did not feel bills in Congress to reduce the footprint of the GSEs would offer meaningful reform.
“This time next year will probably look like it does this year,” Diamond said.
The panel, which convened at the annual American Securitization Forum in Las Vegas, did offer a forward-looking perspective. Laurie Goodman, senior managing director-RMBS of Amherst Securities, said there is a big expectation the government will sell distressed properties in bulk to investors.
“This is a likely solution,” she said.
Currently, she said, investor capital is being raised to absorb the supply. Furthermore, she said buyers should look to buy up to 100 to 200 properties at a time in localized markets. This will help create a cottage industry around managing the properties.
Saul Sanders, co-CEO of mortgage investor Shellpoint Partners, said that market fundamentals remain challenging, but is confident that it is time to move forward.
“Originations are pristine,” he said, “and no one expects a further 30% decline in house prices.”
Are houses selling in the new year? How hot is the start?
There isn’t any way to track the sales that fell out of escrow last year, we just have closed sales to count. But let’s compare last year’s closed sales to this year’s pendings, and figure that 10-25% will fall out:
NSDCC detached listings that were marked ‘Pending’ between Jan 1-22:
| Year | 0-$700K | $701-$1.2 | $1.2+ | Total |
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
If 25% of this year’s pendings fall out of escrow (142 – 25% = 106), we are right on track with last year – and it appears that each price range is fairly represented too, though there is a downward tilt, depending on which ones fall out. The under-$700,000 category is bulging!
No contingents were counted either (there are 148 contingents, but you have to count them individually – maybe I can get an assist on that today?), so I think we’re off to a good start.
This year’s list prices are averaging $379/sf, and last year’s solds closed at $358/sf.
Join us for blog talk radio tomorrow night at 8pm PT with Rich Toscano of piggington.com!
We’ll be analyzing local real estate trends and discussing the right time to buy! We may even have Rich comment on his recent article on the U.S. debt load here. To listen, tune in here at bubbleinfo, and call 1-877-317-7373 with your questions and comments for Rich.
For those who can’t make it, there will be a recording ready right after the show, and the transcript available within 48 hours.
I hope to produce blog talk radio shows with guests on the second and fourth Monday nights of the month at 8pm PT. The next show will be with Tom Tarrant on February 13th, when we’ll be discussing his real estate strategies, and house flipping.
As you probably know, Tom has a project underway in Bay Park – here is a nearby listing for sale:
After 12 days on market, this cash buyer even got a bit of a discount on their way to paying the lowest price for this model since October, 2002.
Explanation? Questionable short-sale comps are influencing the regular sales.
For those who haven’t participated in today’s market conditions, this will give you a taste. First you got out and look at the houses that has been picked over by everyone else, and determined to be way overpriced.
Then you track the new listings, and rush over to them the first day or two on the market.
The “quality buys” get action immediately – in fact, if there isn’t other interest, you might want to ask yourself why. This listed Thursday (but they were trying to get $1,000,000+ last summer):
Some of what I get to live with during a regular day:
Want to know how thin the inventory is?
There wasn’t a new 92130 listing inputted onto the MLS all day – house or condo.
It’s the second time this month that has happened, out of roughly 11,000 homes and 30,000 people.
Will buyers get antsy enough that prices could start rising? This might be a good tester:
The existing-home sales stats for 2011 are out today; here are Diana’s comments from cnbc:
Home sales rose in December to the highest pace in nearly a year. The gain coincides with other signs that show the troubled housing market improved at the end of last year. Still, sales remain depressed and ended 2011 well below healthy levels.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales increased 5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million, the best level since January 2011 and the third straight monthly increase.
For the year, sales totaled only 4.26 million. While that’s up from 4.19 million the previous year, it’s below the 6 million that economists equate with healthy housing markets.
Sales are increasing at a time when the market is flashing other positive signs. Mortgage rates are at record-low levels. Homebuilders have grown slightly less pessimistic because more people are saying they might be open to buying a home this year. And home construction picked up in the final quarter of last year.
The median sales price rose 2.3 percent to $164,500 in December.
The glut of unsold homes declined to 2.38 million homes. At last month’s sales pace, it would take a nearly 7 months to clear those homes. Analysts say a healthy supply can be cleared in about six months.
Once last year she mentioned that we should keep our focus on local market activity – let’s do that!
Detached-Home Sales and Pricing:
| Area | 2010 Sales | 2011 Sales | Diff | 2010 $/sf | 2011 $/sf | Diff |
| SD Co. | ||||||
| NSDCC |
For the comparison by zip code, click here.
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2012/01/03/north-san-diego-sales-2011/
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
