Are houses selling in the new year? How hot is the start?
There isn’t any way to track the sales that fell out of escrow last year, we just have closed sales to count. But let’s compare last year’s closed sales to this year’s pendings, and figure that 10-25% will fall out:
NSDCC detached listings that were marked ‘Pending’ between Jan 1-22:
| Year | 0-$700K | $701-$1.2 | $1.2+ | Total |
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
If 25% of this year’s pendings fall out of escrow (142 – 25% = 106), we are right on track with last year – and it appears that each price range is fairly represented too, though there is a downward tilt, depending on which ones fall out. The under-$700,000 category is bulging!
No contingents were counted either (there are 148 contingents, but you have to count them individually – maybe I can get an assist on that today?), so I think we’re off to a good start.
This year’s list prices are averaging $379/sf, and last year’s solds closed at $358/sf.
Good start to the year JTR – Sure looks like mounting evidence of more and more local markets developing some sort of equilibrium.
The major unknown is if/when rates will start climbing upwards and the effect that will have at that time.
I tend to view real estate through the prism of a high-yield bond vs. a leveraged profit machine so I finance less (if at all) and look at our ‘total return’ down the road. Thus we’re more focused on rental income to carry us vs. capital gains.
I can tell you that I see in Ventura County a rush to list and a rush to contract if not a rush to close. I have no feel for whether this is a front loading or a sign of a strong market.
Well, I am also picking up a new tension in the air and boy is it starting to crackle.
It “feels” like the economy is picking up, even if we know the good news is super-selective, and we all know these rates won’t last forever, so the idea that the window might finally be starting to shut on the real estate opportunity of the decade (maybe once in a lifetime for some of us – when are we ever going to see 3.5% 30 year fixed mortgage rates?!)is starting to kick in.
To me that means an emerging sense of urgency for fence sitters who have been wondering “Is it finally the right time to buy a house?”
OTOH, maybe I’m just gobsmacked by the idea that evangelicals have no problem voting for an adulterous swinger, and that Starbucks is soon to offer wine and beer in select Southern California locations!
Profhoff – Adulterous Swinger??? I didn’t think Warren Buffett was running….
Sincerely,
Astrid & Susie B.
Didn’t we have a little bump in the beginning of the year last year only to go flat by Summer?
I hope things are turning around, but I’m not sure with all these new regulations/taxes. My Mom is going to have to close her business because of new onerous regulations and mandates by the end of the year unless they are lifted.