Over the weekend I was discussing with a new client my outlook for 2010.
He said that in person I sounded more optimistic about the market than on the blog, and I agreed. Some is due to trying to provide all evidence and let you decide, but more is due to recent activity.
Watch this youtube, and you’ll see reasons why I think the local real estate market is going to take off like a rocket in 2010:
Who do you call once you realize you’ve been hacked?
ROB DAWG!!!!
Bryce was the first to email the news, and within 60 seconds I had Robert on the phone. He was happy to oblige, and boom, here we are, right back in business!
Thank You Robert!
Our website designer Stefanie pitched in too, adding more security measures – if you ever need help designing your website, her contact info is at the bottom of the screen.
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Let’s ponder the future – what can we expect for 2010 in North SD County Coastal?
1. More distressed properties for sale.
So far in the fourth quarter we’ve had 1,213 new listings in NSDCC, and 258 of them are short sales or REOs, or 21%. The overall county 4Q stats are 43% short sales and REOs – we’re due to catch up with heavy activity expected on the ARM-recast chart.
2. More short sales showing up on the court house steps.
The sellers have to cooperate fully, and in many cases it’s better for them to be foreclosed – expect more short sales to fail as a result.
3. More loan mods showing up on the court house steps.
The loan mod terms aren’t that much better, and the free rent was good while it lasted – are modders going to go back to making big payments? Doubtful.
4. Banks/servicers unloading
It may not be a tsunami, but the drip has to at least turn into a slow meandering stream. There have been 103 closings in the fourth quarter in NSDCC, but there are 872 properties that have received their notice of trustee sale!
5. Housing Tax Credit getting credit for sales activity.
Who knows if it helps, and there’s little benefit in the more expensive areas. But it gives people something to talk about.
6. Chargers winning Super Bowl.
Let’s not get too hyped up, it’s only been 8 wins in a row, and Norv is still the coach. But if a miracle happened, it would make people feel a little better.
7. Lower pricing
Forget 1-6, all that matters is number 7.
Take a look at the latest pricing from the court house steps, via youtube:
The perfect REO Diet Plan: Dancing, Cocaine, Eating Prevention Device, and Swimming!
I’m not sure you could split this lot. The frontage on Lone Jack is too skinny, and zoning is for multiple-dwellings, but I would think they’d insist on two-acre minimum lot size. Opening bid was $675,000.
Here’s a good example of how important it is for sellers to have a top-notch photo presentation of their house for sale.
Buyers are looking for any reason NOT to buy. If they aren’t in love with the house from the photos, once they drive up and see this, they won’t get out of the car:
He paid $650,000 in 2005, I told him $429,000 (-34%).
People have asked, “Why do you do this?”
The internet gives everyone acess to the new listings immediately, and anxious buyers rush over to see the good ones within hours of MLS input. The early intensity spooks sellers, and they don’t want to deal – which usually means that offers submitted the first week have trouble coming together for those buyers looking for a deal.
What do you do? Expand the inventory, to better your chances.
These videos are samples of the homes we see on the foreclosure lists. Our job is to keep our buyers aware of the off-the-grid inventory. If it all goes right, by next year we’ll have the ability to include buying at the trustee sales as part of the service, so let’s preview the properties heading for the courthouse steps, and anticipate those upcoming REO listings. There are many of both!
So here’s another youtube preview around Carlsbad!
From the nctimes.com, where Eric has the rather large shoes to fill of Zach Fox – note the trouble he had in finding an explanation:
The median price of detached, single-family homes in North County surged 21.9 percent higher in November compared with the same month last year —- the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year increases, a Realtors association said.
Last month’s big price move owed much to the comparison with abysmal sales in November 2008, along with a shift in the mix of home sales, as the middle tiers of the market showed signs of life after a long recession. The median resale price for houses reached $436,250 last month, according to the HomeDex report from the North San Diego County Association of Realtors.
“My buyers have kind of shifted,” said Diane Conaway, an Escondido-based Realtor and board member for the association. “I’ve still got first-time buyers, but the last four have all been in the $500,000-$700,000 range. Those people are finally coming out.”
Indeed, the report shows a decline in the number of homes sold for less than $300,000 compared with November 2008, but an increase in the number of homes sold in all other price categories below $1 million.
The report shows that inventory grew a bit. There were enough homes on the market for 5.7 months of sales at last month’s pace, up 9 percent from October, but still down 31 percent from last year.
Conaway also credited the increase in November to activity among buyers who thought a federal tax credit would be expiring. Congress later extended it to April.
Real estate agent Jim Klinge thinks the price statistic itself is misleading.
“It goes to show you how whacky the median price is for an indicator,” he said. The median, which is the point at which half the sales prices were higher and half were lower, can be skewed when buying activity shifts to varying sectors of the market.
Homes sold in parts of Escondido, Oceanside and Poway drove much of the growth, with each of those areas showing double-digit increases compared to last year.
The appearance of a sudden jump in annual numbers may also reflect a period beginning in November 2008 when first prices dropped into the $360,000 range, an apparent trough that ended in April.
Still, agents and analysts were surprised by the new median price.
“Wow,” Conaway said. “That’s quite a jump.”
From the wsj.com – hat tip AL and MB!
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.
Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. The six-bedroom home, built on a three-acre desert plot, has a kitchen with two dishwashers, four ovens, “antibacterial” copper sinks, and a master “spa” bathroom with space for a flat-screen TV visible from the tub.
The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.
During the housing boom, millions of Americans tried to make money by buying and then quickly reselling new houses and condominiums. That kind of flipping stopped several years ago as home sales stalled amid a surge in foreclosures and curtailed lending.
Now, a different breed of flipper is proliferating: one who seeks bargains at foreclosure auctions. Unlike the boom-time flippers, the latest generation needs cold cash, lots of local-market knowledge and strong nerves.
Back in September we featured the same floor plan a block down the street – it listed for $144,900, and was purchased for $177,000 by flippers.
They have since put it back on the market for $277,000 and found a buyer within 27 days – it’s now pending: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWqFEvlB4BA
Two weeks ago this one hit the open market:
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
