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Category Archive: ‘Thinking of Buying?’

Tax Reform?

The California Association of Realtors is pushing realtors to object to the Big Six tax reform.  Here are the reasons why:

C.A.R. OPPOSES the Tax Reform Proposal Because:

We must reverse the decline in California’s homeownership rate. For over 100 years Congress has incentivized homeownership with the tax code; currently through the mortgage interest deduction.  Any effort at reforming the tax code should maintain and prioritize this incentive. The current proposal only pays lip service to incentivizing homeownership. The proposed changes will result in only five-percent of taxpayers itemizing their deductions. Therefore, the vast majority of people will no longer receive any tax incentive to purchase a home. So, while the proposal keeps the mortgage interest deduction, the incentive effect of the deduction for Americans to become homeowners disappears.

This is a tax increase on California homebuyers and homeowners. Congress needs to protect taxpayers from double-taxation and maintain the deduction for state and local taxes, including property taxes.  Not allowing the average homeowner in California to deduct their property, state and local taxes would effectively raise their taxes $3,000 a year!  The Federal government would tax families on money paid to the state and to local governments they never used.

That’s all you got?

Tax reforms will come and go. Buy a house to lock down your living expenses, and provide housing stability for generations to come.

Posted by on Oct 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage News, Thinking of Buying?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent | 1 comment

Baby-Boomer Housing

These responses point to a massive downsizing trend!

From realtor.com:

LINK

It’s all about millennials these days. Everything seems to center around these special snowflakes. But what about the original “me” generation? We’re talking about baby boomers, of course. What do these roughly 76 million Americans want when it comes to housing?

Well, they want multicar garages, for one thing. According to a recent survey by national homebuilder PulteGroup, they were the top feature boomers were looking for in a new home, followed by open decks or patios; eat-in kitchens; and a private yard.

About 38% of boomers plan to buy a home within the next three years, according to the report. About 11% expect to purchase a residence within the year.

The survey was of 1,043 folks between the ages of 50 and 65 who plan to buy a home in the next decade.

“Retirement marks a new phase in a baby boomer’s life, and it only seems natural to relocate or move to a new home when transitioning away from their primary career, or from the day-to-day rearing of school-aged children,” Jay Mason, vice president of market intelligence for PulteGroup, said in a statement. “It’s not surprising that the 55+ buyer wants a variety of options and choices in their homes.”

According to the survey, 39% of respondents said the main reason they’re moving is because they want to retire, 33% want to downsize, and 30% want to move to a more desirable location.

“One thing we know about boomers is they are not done yet,” says Amy Lynch, president of Generational Edge, a Nashville, TN–based company that consults with companies on generational differences in employees. “As a group, they are starting encore careers and also going back to school. And they often move to be near their millennial kids, who are having kids.” They also start new families of their own, through divorce or remarriage.

All of these situations may require a move. About 26% of boomers plan to stay in their current cities, but just move to a different home, while 34% want to remain in the state, but in a different city or town. Also, 38% hope to cross state lines.

Their top retirement destination? You guessed it: Florida. It seems you just can’t beat all of that year-round sunshine. The state was followed by fellow warm-weather states Arizona, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The cost of living is lower in these states than on the pricier West Coast or in the Northeast.

About 82% of boomers wanted to be someplace affordable, and 74% want to be close to their preferred health care programs.

But boomers don’t want to just pack up and leave their grandchildren. Being close to kids was their top consideration when choosing a new community. They also want to be near the water and park or other green space.

“We are in a period in this country where family life and family connections are very strong,” says Lynch. “There’s a lot of regret among boomers because they worked so many long hours when their kids were young. With grandkids, there’s a chance to make up for that.”

Posted by on Oct 26, 2017 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, The Future, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, This Is America | 11 comments

Hottest Hipster Markets

Hat tip to daytrip for sending this in – North Park, 92104!!

LINK

Who knew that by following the Yelp reviews for the best places to find avocado toast — versus just mocking it as the reason young people today just can’t [insert complaint here] — we could actually be speculating the next hot real estate market? Probably anyone with any experience in real estate speculation, but now we have proof, thanks to a new study.

In this week’s Hot or Not of city rankings, Realtor.com and Yelp have paired up to co-mingle data and determine the bubbling real estate markets in the country in a way we never knew we were curious to see: by their saturation of all that so-called “sh*t hipsters like.”

The study, released today, ranked the Hottest Hipster Markets in America in order by ZIP code:

  1. Columbus, Ohio (43202)
  2. Seattle, Washington (98122)
  3. San Diego, California (92104)
  4. Fort Wayne, Indiana (46802)
  5. Rochester, New York (14620)
  6. San Francisco, California (94117)
  7. Long Beach, California (90814)
  8. Louisville, Kentucky (40217)
  9. Grand Rapids, Michigan (49506)
  10. Colorado Springs, Colorado (17820)

To paraphrase the methodology, the brands used a high concentration of mentions of the word “hipster” in Yelp ratings for any given ZIP code (against the number in that ZIP’s greater metro area) and compared the differential against the Realtor.com Market Hotness Index (calculated by home listing page views and days on market) to create a composite number that chose only one ZIP code per metro area with the most hipster businesses.

“Based on our research, there’s clear evidence that ‘hipster’ popularity — in markets like Austin, Texas — has led to mainstream interest and higher home prices over time,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com. “Whether it’s the farm-to-table restaurants or urban renewal projects that were already underway, a concentration of hipsters seems to be an indicator of a hot housing market.”

Posted by on Oct 7, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Thinking of Buying? | 6 comments

Seller & Buyer Testimonial

A key point here is that the local neighborhood experts gave them no chance of selling for the price they wanted, even after making improvements.

It sold for full price, on the first day:

Many thanks to our clients for doing this!

Posted by on Sep 3, 2017 in About the author, Bubbleinfo Readers, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Buyer Representation, Jim's Take on the Market, Remodel Projects, Repairs/Improvements, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

The Big Stagnation

 

On the Facebook bubbleinfo, in response to the idea that the bubble won’t be bursting, Matt asked ‘what constitutes the big stagnation when it happens’.

My response:

The Big Stagnation? You’ll know it when you see it.

We used to consider 6 months’ of inventory to be normal, but the new norm is probably 3 months with most of San Diego being 1-2 months today. Rancho Santa Fe is our exception, and has 8 months’ of inventory currently (only because there was a slew of sales last month). I think we can consider stagnation being any market with more than 6 months’ worth of inventory, and/or 100+ average days on market (Avg. DOM in RSF now 129 days).

When the market slows, most of the homes not selling can be explained – bad locations, inferior condition, etc.  Start worrying when you see houses that have it all, including a decent price, not selling.

Other outside influences that might cause the market to stagnate include:

  1. Mortgage rates get back into the 5s. Rates have been under 5% since the end of 2009, which seems like a million miles ago.  Buyers would want to stall their plans for at least six months to see if sellers would compensate by lowering their price.
  2. An occasional bad comp.  This happens today when a lowball sale occurs (usually an inside job), and buyers and sellers wonder if it is real.  Because there is usually scant information about it, the bad comp ends up being a mystery, and we forget after a few months, but another seller has to go first to prove it was an anomaly.
  3. Immigration is halted.  This would have seemed impossible up until a few months ago, but if it happened, we could feel a significant impact on the demand side.
  4. Recession hits locally.  An economic slowdown may not bring more supply right away because those out of work would wait 1-2 years before they believed they couldn’t get another job, and decide to move.  A more immediate impact would be felt on the demand side – we’d be losing buyers right away.

The prime reason for a market stagnation is the resistance that sellers and agents have about lowering their price – they would rather wait and see if it will be different tomorrow.

We might see a 5% or 10% drop without much fanfare, because most every seller around here has gained more than 30% appreciation since 2009 and wouldn’t feel it much.  They might give up a couple of bucks, but if a heavy discount is needed to sell, they will dig in.  It is very likely that the only reason they are selling is to hit the big-money jackpot.

A stagnant market could last for months or years – they tend to last until people subscribe to the fact that price will fix anything!

Save

Posted by on Sep 2, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments