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Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

2016-04-16 15.56.17-2

We’re well into the spring selling season (May 1st is twelve days away), and soon the talking heads will be touting fewer sales this year, compared to 2015.

It is short-sighted though, because 2015 was a great year, statistically.  When you consider that prices are still strong, and any softness in the market is at the high-end where hopefully sellers can endure, it’s hard to complain!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
2012
345
$813,500
$367/sf
2013
438
$873,250
$406/sf
2014
351
$1,030,000
$494/sf
2015
419
$1,100,000
$496/sf
2016
365
$1,142,331
$525/sf

Whether the demand is getting more picky or just taking a breather, to still have 365 sales after a 40% price hike in four years is phenomenal.

Posted by on Apr 19, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Lower Mortgage Rates

zrates

Mortgage rates sure are cooperating with the peak selling season!  Let’s hope the economy stays alive, and the political circus doesn’t get any worse.

From MND who quotes rates with zero-points:

Part of the recent move lower in rates is due to anticipation of just such a “sell stocks, buy bonds” trend–just like the one seen in the first 6 weeks of 2016.  If stocks actually do move significantly lower, it’s highly likely that rates would follow.  Even now, rates are already very close to the lowest levels in 3 years.  In fact, since mid-May 2013, we’ve only seen rates any lower than today 2-3 times, depending on the lender.  As for particulars, the most aggressive lenders are back to quoting 3.5% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios, with the bulk being at 3.625%.

Let’s also note what appears to be the new trend of seller euphoria that kicks off the spring selling season now:

sdapril16

Posted by on Apr 6, 2016 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 1 comment

It’s Go Time

springkick

We’ve all heard the rule about listing your home for sale in the spring.

But when are buyers actually buying?

Are there any times when the demand could wane, and sellers should avoid?

There are three events that could cause a lull in the demand:

  1.  Easter/Spring Break
  2.  Tax Day/Season
  3.  Graduation Season

If all we had to worry about was Easter Day, then we might lose a few hours – there were plenty of open houses on Saturday.  But families with school-age kids get 9-10 days off, which is tempting for them to spend on vacation.

Should sellers wait?

Then you have the tax-day slowdown, which is usually the 1-2 days that people waste having to arm-wrestle with their income taxes.

Keep waiting?

Graduation season is more than it used to be, with every kid from pre-school through college getting the pomp and circumstance fit for a king.

Good grief – it will be mid-summer by the time every distraction clears!

Let’s examine the most important fact – when are buyers buying?

These intervals below were based on the hunch that the combined spring-break/tax-day season (3/16-4/15) might show some weakness:

NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales – Dates They Were Marked Pending:

Year
2/16-3/15
3/16-4/15
4/16-5/15
5/16-6/15
7/16-8/15
2012
264
297
309
307
231
2013
293
362
340
326
248
2014
231
271
303
261
264
2015
264
318
308
311
289
Avg
263
312
315
301
258

How about that!

The spring-break/tax-day season was the hottest of the year in 2015, and on average about as good of a time to sell as any!

It’s Go Time!

Posted by on Mar 28, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Active/Pendings in March

KR logo

I like to compare the counts of active and pending listings to help determine the overall ‘health’ of the marketplace, and a 2:1 ratio always seemed to be ‘normal’, roughly.  Le’s compare the comparisons!

These are the counts from February 1, 2016:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Seven weeks later, and well into the selling season, there has been notable improvement!  Those in bold have had a surge of new pendings, and overall there are 57% more pendings today than seven weeks ago:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

If it weren’t for Rancho Santa Fe being a stick in the mud (median LP hasn’t budged either), we could say the entire NSDCC market is on fire.

Posted by on Mar 23, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Mix of New Listings

2016-03-16 22.16.57

The new-listing totals for the early spring season have been virtually identical over the last five years.

But the mix has changed dramatically – in 2012, 60% of the listings were under $1,000,000, and this year it’s only 35%:

NSDCC New Listings between Feb. 1st – Mar 15th

Year
New Listings Under $1M
Between $1M – $2M
Over $2M
Totals
2012
341
190
39
570
2013
293
202
60
555
2014
230
238
64
532
2015
216
266
64
546
2016
190
286
74
550

If this was going to be the year that the inventory cut loose, we would have been seeing more signs of it by now. For a variety of reasons, people would rather stay put, than cash in!

Posted by on Mar 17, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

von

The Super Bowl is over, and the spring selling season is here – let’s move!

How does the inventory compare to last year?  Here are the active listings and cost-per-sf from the day after the 2015 Super Bowl, and today:

Price Range
2015 # of Actives
Avg LP $/sf
2016 # of Actives
Avg LP $/sf
0-$800,000
87
$400/sf
49
$376/sf
$800K-$1.4M
202
$449/sf
184
$416/sf
$1.4M-$2.4M
182
$615/sf
234
$590/sf
$2.4M+
291
$1,037/sf
361
$1,012/sf

A steady push upward as sellers migrate north – there are 19% fewer homes for sale under $1,400,000 this year, and 26% more homes for sale above!

But the average list prices are all lower!

Get Good Help!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 8, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Discount Off List Price

At every open house, people want to know, “How much lower?”

It is relative to the usual factors – how long on the market, seller motivation, etc. – but what over-rides everything else is timing.  It is early in the selling season now, and every seller is optimistic.

Even if the house has been on the market for months – or repeatedly ‘refreshed’ over several years – every seller thinks this is a new beginning.

If you look at the recent averages, big discounts are rare – buyers are lucky to get 5% off, especially in the first half of the year.

Here is the history of discounts off list price in North SD Coastal:

SPLPratios

Houses sold under $1,400,000 have barely knocked off 2% to 3% from the list price over the last three years.  Those between $1.4 and $2.4 had a great year in 2015 – above 95%.  But every price range does better in spring.

Posted by on Jan 31, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Market Conditions, Spring Kick, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Spring Kickin’

uper bowl

Our Spring Selling Season usually gets moving after the Super Bowl is complete, but is anyone excited to see Carolina vs. Denver?

The sports media will do their best to generate some juicy story lines, but San Diegans won’t have much at stake with this matchup.

Let’s just get on with the Spring Kick!

The count of new NSDCC listings in the last week was 102, which is the highest count since early July – so sellers are cooperating!  Mortgage rates have dipped, pricing has moderated (Case-Shiller tomorrow), ‘Coming Soon’ signs are everywhere, the forecast for rain is favorable, and they are practically giving away gasoline!

january rates

 

prices

Let’s kick it up!

Posted by on Jan 25, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

When to Sell Your Home in 2016

Want to guess when the best time will be to sell your house in 2016?

Let’s reflect on recent history.

The Big Frenzy of 2013 was super-charged by mortgage rates dropping into the low-3s during 4Q12.  The low point for the 30Y conforming rate was 3.31% during the week of Thanksgiving.

It skewed the sales history of early 2013 higher, but then rates started rising which tempered the market.  By the time we got into 2014, rates had to decline most of the year just to keep the market afloat.  Those two histories are unlikely to be duplicated in 2016.

rates history

Rates were back into the 3s by the end of 2014, which helped 2015 get off to a good start – and now rates have muddled through the rest of this year.

Because of the highly-publicized Fed hike this month, home buyers have to be thinking that it’s time to buy – before rates go higher.  The Fed has threatened to raise rates throughout 2016, which should cause buyers to be very active early on.

As a result, let’s compare our 2016 market expectations to 2015 – the recent sales history that will be most-likely to repeat.

These are the weekly counts of NSDCC detached-homes that have closed escrow, based on when they were marked pending.  Starting in mid-October, I included the listings that are currently marked pending too, figuring that they have released their contingencies and should be closing soon.

graph

Once the Super Bowl is over, the motivated buyers really get busy.  You can see that February, 2015 was one of the best months of the year to find a buyer.

This year is wrapping up nicely, with the 4Q15 action being better than 3Q15.  It should provide a solid foundation for early 2016.

Let’s consider the difference between wanting to sell, and having to sell.

If you really needed to sell, you probably got it done in 2014 or 2015.  Prices were hitting all-time highs, and the motivated sellers weren’t going to wait around any longer.

The 2016 sellers are more likely to be the lesser-motivated, “if-I-get-my-price” sellers.  It will be irresistible for them to tack on that extra 5% to 10%, just in case, and by the end of spring we could see the OPTs stacking up.  I thought it might happen like that in 2015, but it didn’t so who knows. But one of these years the buyers will have had enough.

Sell before that happens!

Posted by on Dec 27, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Summer Rates

loan rates

We’ve been enjoying a statistical exuberance that is somewhat misguided.

The latest Case-Shiller Index was the March reading, which includes sales data from the previous two months too.  Our recent local data has been looking strong as well, with both April and May sales and prices higher year-over-year.

But rates were lower when those buying decisions were made.  Rates are heading north now, and are higher than they have been all year:

June rates

The reports of good news will keep coming all month, and sellers will stay optimistic – and be reluctant to lower their price in the midst of the euphoria.  But the prime spring selling season is complete, and the summer sales should be impacted if rates keep rising.

Back in 2013 when rates started rising, some buyers rushed to purchase – but that was 10% to 20% ago, price-wise. They are going to be more tempted to wait it out this time.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 3, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 1 comment