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Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

Market Check

The month of March is wrapping up next week, and we’re heading into the Easter/Spring Break period.  Local buyers who might take some time off will be offset by the out-of-towners coming in for a look.

The market seems very balanced currently, and our ‘market health’ gauge is supportive.

Historically, we’ve called it a healthy market when Active Listings-to-Pendings have been at a 2:1 ratio, and here’s the count today in North SD County’s coastal region:

Actives: 781

Pendings: 440

Ratio = 1:78:1

It’s the lower end of the market that is really hot.  Of the 440 pendings, 71% of them are listed under $1,500,000.

Only 37% of the actives are priced under $1,500,000!

While there has been a steady flow of new pendings, I haven’t seen many that were a surprise.  I think buyers are being patient, and are hoping that there will be better offerings later – much like sellers are hoping there will be higher-payers later.

Mortgage rates are holding steady too, which means April could be the month that those buyers and sellers who are in tip-toe mode come closer together!

rate check

Posted by on Mar 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Spring Kick Initial Report

It’s remarkable how strong the data is for homes sold around North San Diego’s coastal region.  Most impressive is the number of sales in spite of higher pricing – there isn’t much drop-off!

These are houses sold between February 1 – March 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
Avg DOM
2011
263
$865,000
$378/sf
91
2012
295
$785,000
$364/sf
94
2013
333
$840,000
$394/sf
64
2014
282
$939,500
$500/sf
51
2015
284
$1,110,000
$528/sf
52

Yesterday, the guy on CNBC who has predicted the last couple of bond-market moves said that he expects the 10-year yields will be down to 1.50% in the next few months, which should push mortgage rates under 3.50%. Waahoo!

rate

Posted by on Mar 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Spring Fever

oc

The real estate market around Orange County is similar to ours in San Diego, and they are feeling the seasonal surge like we are currently.  Mortgage rates under 4% are certainly contributing to the fever – live it up while you can!

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/market-652959-year-thomas.html

An excerpt:

January buying was slow, too. Then all of a sudden – with no major change in pricing or mortgage rates or the broader economy – shoppers stopped shopping and started making offers.

“I’d like to know what buyers are thinking. Why did they start pulling the trigger now?” Thomas says. “It’s like we’ve gone from 5 miles per hour to 65 in a very short distance.”

Thus, the big question for Orange County’s housing market has gone from “When will it wake up?” to “How long can this surge last?”

Will February prove to be just a short-lived, unexpected rush of buyers wanting to start the year in a new home? Did folks get overly anxious about the possibility of potentially higher home prices or costlier mortgages later this year?

Or is this the market breakout where improved housing fundamentals, most notably a healthy job market, nudged buyers to act? Is there a growing flock that’s tired of renting or having roommates – parents or otherwise – and have joined the traditional hunt for home ownership?

Posted by on Mar 4, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Spring Kick | 8 comments

NSDCC New Listings YTD

It used to make sense that the higher prices went, the more people would sell.

But now here we are at all-time high prices, and not many are interested.  It must be due to the lack of other options – not selling looks better than selling.

New Detached-Home Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
2001
783
$659,000
2002
760
$707,450
2003
827
$829,000
2004
568
$999,950
2005
632
$1,166,000
2006
890
$1,099,000
2007
777
$1,200,000
2008
758
$1,166,836
2009
706
$1,195,000
2010
663
$959,000
2011
747
$995,000
2012
620
$935,450
2013
622
$1,121,950
2014
622
$1,300,000
2015
603
$1,380,000

One place where there has been some nice action is the $700,000 – $900,000 range along the I-15 corridor.  There has been a steady stream of new product coming to market, and momentum is building as most sell within the first week (catching many sellers and agents by surprise).

When there are only a smattering of new listings like we’re having along the coast, buyers struggle with whether the pricing is real.  A few will sell here and there, but more listings would provide more comfort to buyers, one way or another.  If they see them selling, then they’d be more likely to jump in!

Posted by on Feb 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

Soccer Fever?

I mentioned on video that my phone has been blowing up the last couple of weeks, and other agents are reporting the same thing.  The graduation season is over, and July is only five days away!

Are buyers fired up because of USA Soccer?

soccer man

Part of the action may be due to the lack of new listings – there still hasn’t been any flood of sellers:

NSDCC Detached-Home New Listings in June

2010 = 533

2011 = 503

2012 = 436

2013 = 478

2014 = 388 (so far)

The next 30 days should be lively – buyers are making their last push to buy/clean/move and get settled before school starts up again.  If you are thinking of selling, it’s a great time to hit the market – contact me today!

Go USA!

Posted by on Jun 26, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Selling-Season Kickoff

The Spring Selling Season around here traditionally gets started right after the Super Bowl – let’s talk about it!

On Monday, February 3rd at 8:00pm we will be joined here by Rich Toscano and other local experts to discuss the real estate market!

Using Google Hangouts On Air here, you will be able to watch and listen to the panel discussion right here on the blog.  We will be taking your questions too – get in early by leaving them in the comment section below.

See you Monday!

Posted by on Jan 29, 2014 in Seminars, Speaker Panel, Spring Kick | 6 comments

More Move-Ups Wanted

I removed the ‘Foreclosure’ and ‘Short Sale’ buttons at the top of this website.

The distressed market around NSDCC appears to be over, and while there will be some stragglers, there won’t be any distressed sellers unless, and until, the banks start up the foreclosure machine again.

Literally, there has been zero NSDCC detached homes listed as short sales this year, and only one bank-owned house (which we saw).

move up buyersWith distressed properties off the list, we are back to the Big Three list of serious sellers; death, divorce, and job transfer.  These groups are a constant source of homes coming to market, and we know they aren’t just testing the waters.

Are there other serious sellers in play?

Others have said that the move-up market should be lively, and I poo-poo’d the idea just due to the difficulty of selling one to buy another.

But should the move-up-or-downers be considered as the new #4 on the list of motivated sellers?  Here are four groups with reasons:

Committed to Long-Term – The primary driving force in today’s market seems to be families looking for a house raise a growing family, and stay forever.  Even though I recommend that you should move every 6-12 months, nobody is taking me up on it any more! :)

Squeeze to Improve Quality – Anyone who finds themselves in an inferior situation – location, schools, etc. – will endure the inconveniences in order to upgrade.  Anyone motivated enough will find a way – and all you need is money.

Inheritance – Those who receive a windfall amount of money will consider upgrading their lifesytle by purchasing a new residence.  I’m convinced this has to be a segment of the demand, based on considerably-higher prices paid.

Combining Generations – With the folks getting older, it’s natural for them to consider sharing a residence with the kids to get extra support.

These four groups of potential buyers who need to sell theirs to buy the next house have the necessary motivation to endure the financing hurdles.  They would add to both supply and demand, and help build some sales momentum (which could be off to a sticky start here in 2014).

If you are thinking of moving up or down, and want some advice on how to handle the particulars, get a hold of me! jim@jimklinge.com

Posted by on Jan 21, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Spring Kick, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Bring Your Track Shoes

fast start aheadOur Christmas-dinner conversation last night included a few thoughts about real estate, and reflecting back on the frenzy conditions in spring.

The Frenzy of 2013 was slowed somewhat by higher rates & prices.  But it doesn’t mean it won’t kick up again – because it could.

Buyers have a lot of woulda, coulda, shouldas about not getting in when rates and prices were lower, but enough time has passed.  All they can do now is look forward and decide if each listing is worth buying at today’s price and rate, or keep waiting.

How the early market develops will depend on how reasonably the new listings are priced.  If they are within reason, they might get gobbled up and some sales momentum could start building again.

It looks like sellers have been fairly reasonable lately.

Here are the NSDCC detached-homes listed between December 1-20, and sales closed in the same period:

Year
#New Listings
LP Avg $/sf
#Solds
SP Avg $/sf
2011
185
$405/sf
139
$353/sf
2012
137
$510/sf
176
$375/sf
2013
129
$544/sf
141
$482/sf

Despite the 29% increase in the average sold pricing, there were more closed than listed, which feels like a seller’s market.

Consider that the number of new listings were fewer than last year, and they were priced within 7% of last year’s group (the ones that helped ignite the frenzy), and it looks like the stage is set for a fast start to 2014.

Posted by on Dec 26, 2013 in Frenzy, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 1 comment