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Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

Spring Selling Season is Done

Typically, sales begin to taper off in July and decline for the rest of the year.

This year should be no different…..and the drop might have already begun:

NSDCC Monthly Sales, 2017

May: 343

June: 225 (as of this morning)

The last week of the month always has a flurry of closings, and we should get close to 300 by the time the last June count is done.

But the rest of the year should be a bit slushy.

Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Spring Fizz?

Reader Tom had this observation yesterday:

I think the market turned this week. I’m seeing more inventory where I look. I’m seeing more price reductions. I’m seeing houses come on decently priced that aren’t flying off market. I think we will look back in 2 years and see this was the peak month. Downhill from here.

We’re coming off an active spring selling season so far:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
2012
345
$813,500
$367/sf
2013
438
$873,250
$406/sf
2014
351
$1,030,000
$494/sf
2015
419
$1,100,000
$496/sf
2016
365
$1,142,331
$525/sf
2016
361
$1,140,000
$499/sf

We might be seeing the real estate tides going out, and the accurate pricing becoming more obvious, which happens this time of year.  The over-priced listings start stacking up once we get this far into the selling season (May starts next Monday!).

We also noted last year that the peak time to sell is right now, and that by May 15th the new pendings start to drift off.  Could the selling season be closing out earlier this year?

The rest of the selling season is going to be case-by-case.  There is a smaller beach house in Oceanside today listed in the low-$700,000s that has so much action that the bids are pushing towards $800,000!

What can sellers do?

  1.  Don’t use Active Listings as Comps – All the active listings tell you are the list prices that aren’t working.
  2.  Don’t Rely on Sold Comps as Absolute Proof of your Home’s Value – They are likely indicators, but those buyers might have been crazy, or got suckered into a hot bidding war.  Question the cash sales too; buyers are throwing around money like water.
  3.  Don’t Use Range Pricing – Give buyers a clear number to shoot at. My listing in NE Carlsbad suffered an unfortunate occurrence when the house across the street listed on a too-large range of $725,000 – $800,000.  The owner/agent got four offers over the first weekend, which did the same thing it does to all sellers – it makes them want the top of the range.  I told her she should ditch the low end, and just go with the $800,000.  She didn’t, and instead cancelled the listing three weeks later. In the meantime, I’m trying to sell the same model with view for $849,000, which would have looked reasonable if hers was $800,000 with slope instead of view – we both could have sold!
  4.  Lower Your Price – If you’ve been on the market for weeks, buyers think something is wrong with your price.  Buyers are on to it – ‘how long have you been on the market’ is the most heard question at open houses.
  5.  Keep Improving Your Home – If you don’t want to lower the price, you can keep improving your home along the way to justify the price.

Daytrip left this comment:

I think price peaks and drops will be like playing whack-a-mole this season. Take out the noise, and it’ll still be heading up. Quality properties will get good prices.

I agree, but once a house is for sale, it is subject to market forces.  Sometimes you just hit a dry spot, and adjusting is more effective than waiting!

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.

A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%

The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!

Posted by on Apr 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

A normal-looking week around North San Diego County’s coastal region:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59

I was comparing notes with a top agent yesterday, who agreed that the market is on fire right now.  Houses that didn’t sell last year have been selling now, whether they lowered the price or not.  Expect the surge to continue until the first week of April – we will lose some steam due to tax day on the 15th, and Easter on the 16th of April.

We noted that it should get hot again for 3-4 weeks, up to graduation season, and then another surge after the Fourth of July for a month or so!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 13, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Phew – back to what we normally expect during the selling season.  We had 102 new listings this week between La Jolla and Carlsbad!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66

The new pendings dipped though, and it makes you wonder if buyers are mulling whether there will be better choices later – and at what price?

There will be a confluence over the next 2-3 months where more inventory gets the fence-sitters to jump in – the Spring Kick!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 6, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

SD Spring Selling Season Starts Now

Here is a good visual aid that shows how closed sales usually jump in March – and those are sales that began in January and February.

Sales last March were 39% higher than in February!

This year, we’re coming in hot too.  Sales in the last four months of 2016 were similar to those in the frenzied 2013!

Click here for more of Rich Toscano’s work:

https://piggington.com/december_2016_housing_data

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Spring Selling Season Preview

Buyers are wondering, “When will we see more inventory?”

We got off to a hot start in 2016, with the first three months having more new listings than in previous years.  But last month was a dud, relatively.

NSDCC New Listings By Month

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Totals
2013
410
375
503
534
490
2,312
2014
413
389
433
511
497
2,243
2015
389
410
477
471
512
2,259
2016
445
432
516
510
494
2,397
2017
370

This is the chart of NSDCC sales sorted by the month they went pending.  In spite of the surge of new listings in the first quarter of 2016, sales in January and February were the lowest of recent years.

NSDCC Sales Sorted By The Month They Went Pending

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Totals
2013
248
284
335
371
324
1,562
2014
201
264
252
286
294
1,297
2015
188
274
332
295
294
1,383
2016
171
235
323
302
322
1,353
2017

I think buyers will be somewhat hesitant in 2017, and sales might get off to a slower start like we did last year.  But there are 306 NSDCC houses that are currently pending!  By March, we should be rocking.

Save

Posted by on Feb 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Bring Back Dirty Cash?

Just a month after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a federal anti-money laundering program that targets luxury real estate is set to expire.

The dragnet monitors pricey home deals for signs of dirty cash, helping detect criminals who launder money through real estate. Manhattan and Miami-Dade County were the first markets scrutinized by the feds.

Here’s the big question: Will Trump — who made his money as a developer — keep the heat on the real estate industry? And if the administration of a developer-turned-president chooses not to renew or expand the regulations, will it be perceived as a conflict of interest.

Unlike other industries where cash changes hands freely, real estate has few checks on buyers.

Drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials have been busted buying condos and mansions in the United States. While the Obama administration rules were blasted by developers and brokers as faulty, they don’t seem to have hurt business as much as first feared since going into effect in March.

Read more here:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/biz-monday/article127809744.html

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Drug Money, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Real Estate Investing, Spring Kick | 2 comments