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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

Expectations for Selling Season, 2019

We saw yesterday that we had 5% fewer January listings year-over-year, giving the impression that sellers aren’t rushing their homes to market.

But we came into 2019 with more leftover listings from last year – and they are already starting to pile up:

NSDCC Detached-Homes

Year
January Sales
Active Listings, First Week of February
2016
171
821
2017
175
774
2018
150
652
2019
145
774

Last year we were overdue for some slowdown, but were able to survive lower January sales because the inventory heading into the selling season was so thin that urgency was higher among buyers, which kept the party going.

This year we had fewer sales even with higher inventory, which means the selling-success rate is dropping steadily.  Once more unsold listings start stacking up, the urgency among buyers will diminish.

This is the same data as yesterday, but over three years instead of five, and shows how the 2018 selling season didn’t pop like in previous years:

Click to enlarge

Mortgage rates went over 4.5% in May which helped to discourage sales, but you can see how the initial surge barely got past March.  Even if rates stay where they are today, we could have a muted sales season just because we are already loaded with listings.

Posted by on Feb 5, 2019 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Slowdown, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Spring Selling Season Starts Now

Click to enlarge

The Big Game is over, so many will turn their full attention towards moving!

We’re off to a good start:

  1. Mortgage rates are about the same as they were last year,
  2. The NSDCC inventory isn’t exploding, and
  3. The NSDCC Pendings have jumped up 19% in the last two weeks!

You can see in the graph above that sales start right away, and March closings are substantially higher than in February.  Also note that by mid-summer, sales were dropping off quickly too.

We should have three hot months this year – at least!

Posted by on Feb 4, 2019 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

“Picking Up”

We were due for a surge in market activity with rates coming down, and the Chargers and rain both being done.  Several agents are reporting increased activity over the last few days, and it seems like buyers are engaging.

We should see heightened activity for the next week, then a break for a few days around the Super Bowl as everyone grabs their guacamole, with the Spring Selling Season beginning in earnest on February 4th.

The weekend of February 9th and 10th should be huge!

It’s nice that we have somebody to talk to now, but what does it mean?  It means people are looking around – that’s it.  Those who find an incredibly-good fit might pounce, but most are going to wait-and-see how the season develops.

So far, we’re having about the same number of new NSDCC listings come to market as we did last year, so no panic among potential sellers.  Their main focus is only on how high they can push their price – it’s the buyers who are paying close attention to the real market activity, and what they see is determined by their mindset.

Here are some examples:

Posted by on Jan 23, 2019 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Surge, Spring Kick, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick 2018

Though the number of pendings has been lower recently, the closed sales are about the same as last year. Buyers are probably more reluctant to cancel a sale once in escrow?

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1st and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%
2018
653
1,371
48%
73%

Almost three quarters of the sales are over $1,000,000 now!

Posted by on Apr 25, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Spring Selling Season is Done

Typically, sales begin to taper off in July and decline for the rest of the year.

This year should be no different…..and the drop might have already begun:

NSDCC Monthly Sales, 2017

May: 343

June: 225 (as of this morning)

The last week of the month always has a flurry of closings, and we should get close to 300 by the time the last June count is done.

But the rest of the year should be a bit slushy.

Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Spring Fizz?

Reader Tom had this observation yesterday:

I think the market turned this week. I’m seeing more inventory where I look. I’m seeing more price reductions. I’m seeing houses come on decently priced that aren’t flying off market. I think we will look back in 2 years and see this was the peak month. Downhill from here.

We’re coming off an active spring selling season so far:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
2012
345
$813,500
$367/sf
2013
438
$873,250
$406/sf
2014
351
$1,030,000
$494/sf
2015
419
$1,100,000
$496/sf
2016
365
$1,142,331
$525/sf
2016
361
$1,140,000
$499/sf

We might be seeing the real estate tides going out, and the accurate pricing becoming more obvious, which happens this time of year.  The over-priced listings start stacking up once we get this far into the selling season (May starts next Monday!).

We also noted last year that the peak time to sell is right now, and that by May 15th the new pendings start to drift off.  Could the selling season be closing out earlier this year?

The rest of the selling season is going to be case-by-case.  There is a smaller beach house in Oceanside today listed in the low-$700,000s that has so much action that the bids are pushing towards $800,000!

What can sellers do?

  1.  Don’t use Active Listings as Comps – All the active listings tell you are the list prices that aren’t working.
  2.  Don’t Rely on Sold Comps as Absolute Proof of your Home’s Value – They are likely indicators, but those buyers might have been crazy, or got suckered into a hot bidding war.  Question the cash sales too; buyers are throwing around money like water.
  3.  Don’t Use Range Pricing – Give buyers a clear number to shoot at. My listing in NE Carlsbad suffered an unfortunate occurrence when the house across the street listed on a too-large range of $725,000 – $800,000.  The owner/agent got four offers over the first weekend, which did the same thing it does to all sellers – it makes them want the top of the range.  I told her she should ditch the low end, and just go with the $800,000.  She didn’t, and instead cancelled the listing three weeks later. In the meantime, I’m trying to sell the same model with view for $849,000, which would have looked reasonable if hers was $800,000 with slope instead of view – we both could have sold!
  4.  Lower Your Price – If you’ve been on the market for weeks, buyers think something is wrong with your price.  Buyers are on to it – ‘how long have you been on the market’ is the most heard question at open houses.
  5.  Keep Improving Your Home – If you don’t want to lower the price, you can keep improving your home along the way to justify the price.

Daytrip left this comment:

I think price peaks and drops will be like playing whack-a-mole this season. Take out the noise, and it’ll still be heading up. Quality properties will get good prices.

I agree, but once a house is for sale, it is subject to market forces.  Sometimes you just hit a dry spot, and adjusting is more effective than waiting!

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.

A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%

The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!

Posted by on Apr 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

A normal-looking week around North San Diego County’s coastal region:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59

I was comparing notes with a top agent yesterday, who agreed that the market is on fire right now.  Houses that didn’t sell last year have been selling now, whether they lowered the price or not.  Expect the surge to continue until the first week of April – we will lose some steam due to tax day on the 15th, and Easter on the 16th of April.

We noted that it should get hot again for 3-4 weeks, up to graduation season, and then another surge after the Fourth of July for a month or so!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 13, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Phew – back to what we normally expect during the selling season.  We had 102 new listings this week between La Jolla and Carlsbad!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66

The new pendings dipped though, and it makes you wonder if buyers are mulling whether there will be better choices later – and at what price?

There will be a confluence over the next 2-3 months where more inventory gets the fence-sitters to jump in – the Spring Kick!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 6, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments