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Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

Inventory Watch

2016-09-13 13.39.48

As September wraps up, both buyers and sellers are wondering if they should pack it in for 2016. A logical question would be, “How does today’s market compare to the ‘selling season’ this year”?

During the 13 weeks of March, April, and May, we averaged 72 new pendings per week. For July, August, and September, we averaged 64 new pendings per week – including 68 this week and 69 last week!

Not much difference!

And that’s in spite of the fact that we hit the highest average list-price-per-sf of the year in all categories this week!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Sep 26, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

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For those who saw the July stats and wanted a deeper look, here is a three-month comparison that wraps up the spring selling season:

NSDCC Sales, May-July

Year
# of May-July Sales
Median Sales Price
2011
725
$840,000
2012
886
$850,000
2013
992
$960,187
2014
862
$1,011,500
2015
936
$1,086,250
2016
872
$1,199,990

In spite of the median sales price increasing 10% year-over-year, sales have been hanging tough in 2016.  Will it keep going with distractions like the Olympics, our political circus, and school starting?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 8, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC May/June Sales

hot market

A good way to measure the strength of the spring selling season would be to examine home sales that close in May and June.  In spite of medians that have jumped 30% or more in just five years, and a low-end market that has evaporated, sales in May/June of this year were very strong:

NSDCC House Sales, for May/June

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median Cost-per-SF
# of Sales Under $800,000
2012
628
$850,000
$317/sf
282
2013
695
$975,000
$372/sf
231
2014
591
$1,000,000
$388/sf
167
2015
623
$1,125,000
$402/sf
138
2016
607
$1,209,000
$419/sf
98

It’s not the low-end that is carrying this market – it is the affluent.  It’s why the market will likely keep going – people have more money than houses!

You can also see how difficult it is to downsize.  Those who are looking to pocket a big windfall – hopefully the entire $500,000 tax-free amount – will recognize how hard it is to stay around the coast.

Of the 98 sold under $800,000, only 31 of them were single-story!

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Posted by on Jul 6, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Existing Home Sales, May 2016

existing home sales

The national cheerleaders get excited about every nugget of data, and are happy to jump to conclusions.  Yunnie is finally tip-toeing around the downsizing trend that we see everywhere around here, but he can’t assume that those sellers are buying too:

“The May gain over April signals that the real estate market has maintained strong momentum all spring,” says realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke. “We are now in this year’s peak home buying months, and this pace of sales should produce the gains we have been forecasting that will make 2016 the best year of home sales in a decade.

The biggest challenge to prospective buyers right now is tight supply, which we have seen for 45 consecutive months. In these conditions, home values have strong support, but potential buyers will continue to face challenges finding a home for sale that meets their needs. That is why we’re seeing the age of inventory drop dramatically while prices have gone up 5 percent over the last year and are now at record nominal levels.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he says. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

Adds Yun, “Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

The local NSDCC sales in May built on the momentum from April, and the 2016 three-month total looks very similar to last year (865 vs. 859):

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
299
320
$1,216,250
$500/sf
$419/sf

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Posted by on Jun 23, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales

Rates 2016

Low mortgage rates are keeping the party going!

As mortgage rates dipped back into the mid-3s in February, buyers responded. The closed sales in April and May were healthy, and supported by sellers who are being reasonable about price – the cost-per-sf is about the same as last May.

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
300
316
$1,216,250
$497/sf
$415/sf

Flat to slightly-rising prices are the happy compromise for everyone!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing – Prelim.

We’re wrapping up the month of May today, and the spring selling season.  Oh yes, there will still be plenty of blue sky ahead….until there isn’t.

The NSDCC closed sales this month are looking like they will exceed last year’s total for May – which was 287 sales.

There have been 280 closings so far this month, and we should get up to 300 over the next week or two.

Year
No. of Sales
Average Cost-per-SF
Median Sales Price
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
2015
287
$497/sf
$1,459,168
2016
280
$506/sf
$1,252,500

The median sales price is taking a hit this month, and it seems in part due to the lower-middle tier ($800,000-$1,400,000) being red hot lately.  It’s because the $800,000-$1,400,000 range is rapidly becoming the lowest tier!

This chart of pending listings by price range gives us a glimpse of what to expect for sales closing this summer:

Posted by on May 31, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Strategic Price Reductions

We’re about halfway through the spring selling season!

The Zillow Group said that it is best for San Diegans to sell their house in March.  But a few years back, I wrote this article suggesting that May is also a good time, because you can pick up on the momentum of others who have already sold around you:

When to Sell Your Home

But it’s also the time of year when active listings may start stacking up.  What happens when houses aren’t selling? Sure, you can just lower the price, but are there more variables to consider?

We were faced with that problem in Santee with the big-view house.

7249-ocotillo-st-008

Though the single-level floor plan and extensive upgrades were desirable, we weren’t getting any bites while listed for $1,199,000.  A bigger two-story house on the other side of the street had closed for $975,000 on March 1st, and the general perception was that the westerly view was preferred (even though obstructed by roof tops at ground level).

But another factor was that there have only been two houses in the history of Santee that sold for $1,000,000 or more.  One of those was in 2008 – not exactly a usable comp.

The house directly across the street was also listed for sale, at $1,228,000 for a two-story that was 12% larger.   With us at $1,199,000, it was a standoff – neither stood out as the obvious buy.

The key point?

A standoff means somebody has to go first.

When there are multiple houses for sale that are all priced about the same, it’s too easy for buyers to go into paralysis – and wait for the sellers to go first.

So after 30 days on the market, we lowered our list price by $80,000 to $1,119,000.  At $109,000 under the neighbor, we looked like the better buy on paper.  We had been keeping a steady open-house schedule, and the following weekend I found our buyer.

After we went pending, the house across the street did lower his price to $1,149,000, and he found a buyer a couple of weeks later (still pending today).

Who won?

Both sellers won, in my opinion.

We consciously took the more-certain route by being the first to lower our price, and dropped it enough that the gap between us helped to make us look more attractive.  Then once we were pending, someone took comfort in knowing they wouldn’t be the only buyer on the street over a million, and bought his house.

A secondary point is how quick we moved. After 30 days we didn’t have any significant action around our $1,199,000.  Rather than keep waiting and hoping for more weeks or months, we agreed on the more aggressive plan.

If we hadn’t, we’d be sitting around today with about 100 days on the market.  At that point, potential buyers got you – they know your price is wrong, and the first price reduction might get ignored.  Then sellers are chasing down the market as the selling season starts to run out of gas – don’t get in that position!

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Posted by on May 4, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Market Conditions, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

2016-04-16 15.56.17-2

We’re well into the spring selling season (May 1st is twelve days away), and soon the talking heads will be touting fewer sales this year, compared to 2015.

It is short-sighted though, because 2015 was a great year, statistically.  When you consider that prices are still strong, and any softness in the market is at the high-end where hopefully sellers can endure, it’s hard to complain!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
2012
345
$813,500
$367/sf
2013
438
$873,250
$406/sf
2014
351
$1,030,000
$494/sf
2015
419
$1,100,000
$496/sf
2016
365
$1,142,331
$525/sf

Whether the demand is getting more picky or just taking a breather, to still have 365 sales after a 40% price hike in four years is phenomenal.

Posted by on Apr 19, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Lower Mortgage Rates

zrates

Mortgage rates sure are cooperating with the peak selling season!  Let’s hope the economy stays alive, and the political circus doesn’t get any worse.

From MND who quotes rates with zero-points:

Part of the recent move lower in rates is due to anticipation of just such a “sell stocks, buy bonds” trend–just like the one seen in the first 6 weeks of 2016.  If stocks actually do move significantly lower, it’s highly likely that rates would follow.  Even now, rates are already very close to the lowest levels in 3 years.  In fact, since mid-May 2013, we’ve only seen rates any lower than today 2-3 times, depending on the lender.  As for particulars, the most aggressive lenders are back to quoting 3.5% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios, with the bulk being at 3.625%.

Let’s also note what appears to be the new trend of seller euphoria that kicks off the spring selling season now:

sdapril16

Posted by on Apr 6, 2016 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 1 comment