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Category Archive: ‘Spring Kick’

SD Spring Selling Season Starts Now

Here is a good visual aid that shows how closed sales usually jump in March – and those are sales that began in January and February.

Sales last March were 39% higher than in February!

This year, we’re coming in hot too.  Sales in the last four months of 2016 were similar to those in the frenzied 2013!

Click here for more of Rich Toscano’s work:

https://piggington.com/december_2016_housing_data

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Spring Selling Season Preview

Buyers are wondering, “When will we see more inventory?”

We got off to a hot start in 2016, with the first three months having more new listings than in previous years.  But last month was a dud, relatively.

NSDCC New Listings By Month

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Totals
2013
410
375
503
534
490
2,312
2014
413
389
433
511
497
2,243
2015
389
410
477
471
512
2,259
2016
445
432
516
510
494
2,397
2017
370

This is the chart of NSDCC sales sorted by the month they went pending.  In spite of the surge of new listings in the first quarter of 2016, sales in January and February were the lowest of recent years.

NSDCC Sales Sorted By The Month They Went Pending

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Totals
2013
248
284
335
371
324
1,562
2014
201
264
252
286
294
1,297
2015
188
274
332
295
294
1,383
2016
171
235
323
302
322
1,353
2017

I think buyers will be somewhat hesitant in 2017, and sales might get off to a slower start like we did last year.  But there are 306 NSDCC houses that are currently pending!  By March, we should be rocking.

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Posted by on Feb 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Bring Back Dirty Cash?

Just a month after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a federal anti-money laundering program that targets luxury real estate is set to expire.

The dragnet monitors pricey home deals for signs of dirty cash, helping detect criminals who launder money through real estate. Manhattan and Miami-Dade County were the first markets scrutinized by the feds.

Here’s the big question: Will Trump — who made his money as a developer — keep the heat on the real estate industry? And if the administration of a developer-turned-president chooses not to renew or expand the regulations, will it be perceived as a conflict of interest.

Unlike other industries where cash changes hands freely, real estate has few checks on buyers.

Drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials have been busted buying condos and mansions in the United States. While the Obama administration rules were blasted by developers and brokers as faulty, they don’t seem to have hurt business as much as first feared since going into effect in March.

Read more here:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/biz-monday/article127809744.html

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Drug Money, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Real Estate Investing, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-09-13 13.39.48

As September wraps up, both buyers and sellers are wondering if they should pack it in for 2016. A logical question would be, “How does today’s market compare to the ‘selling season’ this year”?

During the 13 weeks of March, April, and May, we averaged 72 new pendings per week. For July, August, and September, we averaged 64 new pendings per week – including 68 this week and 69 last week!

Not much difference!

And that’s in spite of the fact that we hit the highest average list-price-per-sf of the year in all categories this week!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Sep 26, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

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For those who saw the July stats and wanted a deeper look, here is a three-month comparison that wraps up the spring selling season:

NSDCC Sales, May-July

Year
# of May-July Sales
Median Sales Price
2011
725
$840,000
2012
886
$850,000
2013
992
$960,187
2014
862
$1,011,500
2015
936
$1,086,250
2016
872
$1,199,990

In spite of the median sales price increasing 10% year-over-year, sales have been hanging tough in 2016.  Will it keep going with distractions like the Olympics, our political circus, and school starting?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 8, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC May/June Sales

hot market

A good way to measure the strength of the spring selling season would be to examine home sales that close in May and June.  In spite of medians that have jumped 30% or more in just five years, and a low-end market that has evaporated, sales in May/June of this year were very strong:

NSDCC House Sales, for May/June

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median Cost-per-SF
# of Sales Under $800,000
2012
628
$850,000
$317/sf
282
2013
695
$975,000
$372/sf
231
2014
591
$1,000,000
$388/sf
167
2015
623
$1,125,000
$402/sf
138
2016
607
$1,209,000
$419/sf
98

It’s not the low-end that is carrying this market – it is the affluent.  It’s why the market will likely keep going – people have more money than houses!

You can also see how difficult it is to downsize.  Those who are looking to pocket a big windfall – hopefully the entire $500,000 tax-free amount – will recognize how hard it is to stay around the coast.

Of the 98 sold under $800,000, only 31 of them were single-story!

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Posted by on Jul 6, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Existing Home Sales, May 2016

existing home sales

The national cheerleaders get excited about every nugget of data, and are happy to jump to conclusions.  Yunnie is finally tip-toeing around the downsizing trend that we see everywhere around here, but he can’t assume that those sellers are buying too:

“The May gain over April signals that the real estate market has maintained strong momentum all spring,” says realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke. “We are now in this year’s peak home buying months, and this pace of sales should produce the gains we have been forecasting that will make 2016 the best year of home sales in a decade.

The biggest challenge to prospective buyers right now is tight supply, which we have seen for 45 consecutive months. In these conditions, home values have strong support, but potential buyers will continue to face challenges finding a home for sale that meets their needs. That is why we’re seeing the age of inventory drop dramatically while prices have gone up 5 percent over the last year and are now at record nominal levels.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he says. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

Adds Yun, “Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

The local NSDCC sales in May built on the momentum from April, and the 2016 three-month total looks very similar to last year (865 vs. 859):

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
299
320
$1,216,250
$500/sf
$419/sf

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Posted by on Jun 23, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales

Rates 2016

Low mortgage rates are keeping the party going!

As mortgage rates dipped back into the mid-3s in February, buyers responded. The closed sales in April and May were healthy, and supported by sellers who are being reasonable about price – the cost-per-sf is about the same as last May.

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
300
316
$1,216,250
$497/sf
$415/sf

Flat to slightly-rising prices are the happy compromise for everyone!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments