The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.
A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:
NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
% of Sales Over $1M
The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!
A normal-looking week around North San Diego County’s coastal region:
I was comparing notes with a top agent yesterday, who agreed that the market is on fire right now. Houses that didn’t sell last year have been selling now, whether they lowered the price or not. Expect the surge to continue until the first week of April – we will lose some steam due to tax day on the 15th, and Easter on the 16th of April.
We noted that it should get hot again for 3-4 weeks, up to graduation season, and then another surge after the Fourth of July for a month or so!
Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:
Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0. When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!
NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
Oct 28, 2015
Feb 1, 2016
Mar 23, 2016
June 21, 2016
Aug 17, 2016
Dec 4, 2016
Feb 4, 2017
For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!
Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:
February 1, 2016
Median LP of ACT
Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season! Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!
Buyers are wondering, “When will we see more inventory?”
We got off to a hot start in 2016, with the first three months having more new listings than in previous years. But last month was a dud, relatively.
NSDCC New Listings By Month
This is the chart of NSDCC sales sorted by the month they went pending. In spite of the surge of new listings in the first quarter of 2016, sales in January and February were the lowest of recent years.
NSDCC Sales Sorted By The Month They Went Pending
I think buyers will be somewhat hesitant in 2017, and sales might get off to a slower start like we did last year. But there are 306 NSDCC houses that are currently pending! By March, we should be rocking.
Just a month after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a federal anti-money laundering program that targets luxury real estate is set to expire.
The dragnet monitors pricey home deals for signs of dirty cash, helping detect criminals who launder money through real estate. Manhattan and Miami-Dade County were the first markets scrutinized by the feds.
Here’s the big question: Will Trump — who made his money as a developer — keep the heat on the real estate industry? And if the administration of a developer-turned-president chooses not to renew or expand the regulations, will it be perceived as a conflict of interest.
Unlike other industries where cash changes hands freely, real estate has few checks on buyers.
Drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials have been busted buying condos and mansions in the United States. While the Obama administration rules were blasted by developers and brokers as faulty, they don’t seem to have hurt business as much as first feared since going into effect in March.
For those who saw the July stats and wanted a deeper look, here is a three-month comparison that wraps up the spring selling season:
NSDCC Sales, May-July
# of May-July Sales
Median Sales Price
In spite of the median sales price increasing 10% year-over-year, sales have been hanging tough in 2016. Will it keep going with distractions like the Olympics, our political circus, and school starting?
Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:
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