I think the market turned this week. I’m seeing more inventory where I look. I’m seeing more price reductions. I’m seeing houses come on decently priced that aren’t flying off market. I think we will look back in 2 years and see this was the peak month. Downhill from here.
We’re coming off an active spring selling season so far:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15
# of Sales
We might be seeing the real estate tides going out, and the accurate pricing becoming more obvious, which happens this time of year. The over-priced listings start stacking up once we get this far into the selling season (May starts next Monday!).
We also noted last year that the peak time to sell is right now, and that by May 15th the new pendings start to drift off. Could the selling season be closing out earlier this year?
The rest of the selling season is going to be case-by-case. There is a smaller beach house in Oceanside today listed in the low-$700,000s that has so much action that the bids are pushing towards $800,000!
What can sellers do?
Don’t use Active Listings as Comps – All the active listings tell you are the list prices that aren’t working.
Don’t Rely on Sold Comps as Absolute Proof of your Home’s Value – They are likely indicators, but those buyers might have been crazy, or got suckered into a hot bidding war. Question the cash sales too; buyers are throwing around money like water.
Don’t Use Range Pricing – Give buyers a clear number to shoot at. My listing in NE Carlsbad suffered an unfortunate occurrence when the house across the street listed on a too-large range of $725,000 – $800,000. The owner/agent got four offers over the first weekend, which did the same thing it does to all sellers – it makes them want the top of the range. I told her she should ditch the low end, and just go with the $800,000. She didn’t, and instead cancelled the listing three weeks later. In the meantime, I’m trying to sell the same model with view for $849,000, which would have looked reasonable if hers was $800,000 with slope instead of view – we both could have sold!
Lower Your Price – If you’ve been on the market for weeks, buyers think something is wrong with your price. Buyers are on to it – ‘how long have you been on the market’ is the most heard question at open houses.
Keep Improving Your Home – If you don’t want to lower the price, you can keep improving your home along the way to justify the price.
Daytrip left this comment:
I think price peaks and drops will be like playing whack-a-mole this season. Take out the noise, and it’ll still be heading up. Quality properties will get good prices.
I agree, but once a house is for sale, it is subject to market forces. Sometimes you just hit a dry spot, and adjusting is more effective than waiting!
The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.
A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:
NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
% of Sales Over $1M
The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!
A normal-looking week around North San Diego County’s coastal region:
I was comparing notes with a top agent yesterday, who agreed that the market is on fire right now. Houses that didn’t sell last year have been selling now, whether they lowered the price or not. Expect the surge to continue until the first week of April – we will lose some steam due to tax day on the 15th, and Easter on the 16th of April.
We noted that it should get hot again for 3-4 weeks, up to graduation season, and then another surge after the Fourth of July for a month or so!
Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:
Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0. When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!
NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
Oct 28, 2015
Feb 1, 2016
Mar 23, 2016
June 21, 2016
Aug 17, 2016
Dec 4, 2016
Feb 4, 2017
For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!
Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:
February 1, 2016
Median LP of ACT
Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season! Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!
Buyers are wondering, “When will we see more inventory?”
We got off to a hot start in 2016, with the first three months having more new listings than in previous years. But last month was a dud, relatively.
NSDCC New Listings By Month
This is the chart of NSDCC sales sorted by the month they went pending. In spite of the surge of new listings in the first quarter of 2016, sales in January and February were the lowest of recent years.
NSDCC Sales Sorted By The Month They Went Pending
I think buyers will be somewhat hesitant in 2017, and sales might get off to a slower start like we did last year. But there are 306 NSDCC houses that are currently pending! By March, we should be rocking.
Just a month after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a federal anti-money laundering program that targets luxury real estate is set to expire.
The dragnet monitors pricey home deals for signs of dirty cash, helping detect criminals who launder money through real estate. Manhattan and Miami-Dade County were the first markets scrutinized by the feds.
Here’s the big question: Will Trump — who made his money as a developer — keep the heat on the real estate industry? And if the administration of a developer-turned-president chooses not to renew or expand the regulations, will it be perceived as a conflict of interest.
Unlike other industries where cash changes hands freely, real estate has few checks on buyers.
Drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials have been busted buying condos and mansions in the United States. While the Obama administration rules were blasted by developers and brokers as faulty, they don’t seem to have hurt business as much as first feared since going into effect in March.
We first encountered Jim back in 2010 when we were looking to move from Pismo Beach, CA to to San Diego area. We had been having a difficult time finding (1) finding a realtor and (2) being able to see a home since we were so far away. Then we found Jim. He made the process really easy – he was able to take incredible video tours of the homes and it was as if we were there touring the homes ourselves. once we found homes we really liked, we took a trip to see it in person. One of the things we really liked about Jim was that he was honest with us about the homes and advised us weather a home was a good buy or not. He was not just out to quickly sell us a house just to make a commission. He really cared about ensuring we found the right one. more “
I have followed Jim’s BubbleInfo blog from the early days of the bubble when “real estate could only go up in value” and I knew him to be a straight shooter who would not sugar coat properties nor gloss over their faults.
So when we decided to move back to California after 7 years in the more “
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Since Zillow only allows me to write 1 review per real estate transaction, per team of agents we worked with, this is going to be a super long review.Review on Jim Klinge:
Jim Klinge is the quintessential real estate agent, the “broker’s, broker” of real estate agents. My husband and I reached more “
by Louie and Tim Cook
Jim and Donna are the BEST of the BEST! Their knowledge, professionalism, work ethic, and devotion to their trade are unrivaled. It was refreshing to have worked with a pair of professionals who truly understand the meaning of customer service, a lost art in our opinion. Despite living over 3,000 miles away on the opposite coast, Jim and Donna were with us every step of more “
Jim found me a multi family property that we purchased as an investment (Please see my review of Donna Klinge for details on how it went). But the bottom line is this: I never would have found this property, which cash flows right out of the gate, if it weren’t for Jim pointing me toward that house. It just was not on my radar, even though I consider myself a savvy real estate troll. Jim is giving of his time, and his intelligence. And he is also transparent and truthful. And I think he is funny, which is helpful in stressful situations like RE transactions. Jim and Donna have earned every last penny they made from our deal — and in fact they deserve more. And that is why I will use them for my RE transactions the rest of my life. Thank you, Jim and Donna! more “
I can’t say enough about Jim and Donna. Jim got a great price for us and negotiated well. Donna walked us through escrow, handling vendors, and negotiating everything we asked for in the request for repairs. They are know exactly what they are doing and I’ve already recommended them to two other people. more “
I followed Jim’s blog for several years and decided to contact him (along with several other realtors) when an out-of-state work relocation required me to sell my home in San Marcos, Ca. At our initially meeting, Jim spent a significant amount of time discussing pricing options, strategy, as well… more “
Honesty. Integrity. Professionalism. Dedication. Commitment. Jim and Donna Klinge hold these attributes in abundance. They have acted as both our buyer agent and our seller agent delivering highly relevant insight into local market conditions, spot-on advice to maximize the home’s value, and unparalleled management of the transaction process… more “
I cannot imagine a better experience! Jim was our broker when my husband and I bought our first house. Jim never pressured us or glossed over anything. He was patient, knowledgeable, and helped us buy our dream home. His office was detail-oriented, always responsive and we closed in 30 days! The excellent service didn’t end when we bought our house, either, the Klinges have given us excellent and fast referrals along the way. We feel privileged to have worked with such a consummate professional and appreciate how rare this level of skill is. Jim is simply the best in the field. more “
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