Category Archive: ‘Jim’s Take on the Market’

More 2019 Forecasts

Realtor.com is optimistic about the 2019 real estate market (Sales to be -2%):

“Inventory will continue to increase next year, but unless there is a major shift in the economic trajectory, we don’t expect a buyer’s market on the horizon within the next five years,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist. “Unfortunately for buyers, it’s only going to get more costly to buy, especially the most-demanded entry level real estate. To be successful, buyers should think through how they’ll adapt to higher rates and prices.”

2019 Predictions for Home Buyers

Buyers who are able to stay in the market will find less competition as more would-be buyers get priced out, realtor.com® notes. But home shoppers likely will still feel a sense of urgency as buying a home gets more expensive.

“Their largest struggle next year will be reconciling wants, needs and budget versus the heavy competition of 2018,” realtor.com® notes in its report. “Although the number of homes for sale is increasing, which is an improvement for buyers, the majority of new inventory is focused in the mid- to higher-end price tier, not entry-level.”

2019 Predictions for Home Sellers

The market is largely expected to remain a “seller’s market” in 2019, but homeowners will start to see greater competition from others looking to sell. They “shouldn’t necessarily expect to name their price and get it in full—a change from the past few years,” realtor.com® notes. “Above-median priced sellers may find it will take longer to sell and require offering incentives, such as price cuts or other offerings.” But for those sellers who price their homes competitively, they’ll “still walk away with a handsome amount of profit,” just not with the price jumps seen in previous years, realtor.com® notes.

From the California Association of Realtors:

C.A.R.’s “2019 California Housing Market Forecast” sees a modest decline in existing single-family home sales of 3.3 percent next year to reach 396,800 units, down from the projected 2018 sales figure of 410,460. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared with the 424,100 pace of homes sold in 2017.

“While home prices are predicted to temper next year, interest rates will likely rise and compound housing affordability issues,” said C.A.R. President Steve White. “Would-be buyers who are concerned that home prices may have peaked will wait on the sidelines until they have more clarity on where the housing market is headed. This could hold back housing demand and hamper home sales in 2019.”

The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.2 percent in 2019, up from 4.7 percent in 2018 and 4.0 percent in 2017, but will still remain low by historical standards.

The California median home price is forecast to increase 3.1 percent to $593,450 in 2019, following a projected 7.0 percent increase in 2018 to $575,800.

“The surge in home prices over the past few years due to the housing supply shortage has finally taken a toll on the market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Despite an improvement in supply conditions, there is a high level of uncertainty about the direction of the market that is affecting homebuying decisions. This psychological effect is creating a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers and will limit price growth in the upcoming year.”