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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Jim’s Take on the Market’

Inventory 2018

Yesterday, Bill featured the C.A.R. release about September sales that included the president’s comment that buyers are ‘self-sidelining’ in anticipation of lower prices ahead.  White included his obligatory blame on the tax reform, which he was so adamantly against even though his case was based on faulty evidence – and it passed anyway.

Bill also included the chart above that showed inventory explosion in CA:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/10/california-california-housing-market.html

Let’s review our NSDCC stats to see how we are behaving:

Year
Total Listings YoY
Total Sales YoY
TL/TS Ratio
ACT Inventory Mid-Oct
2013
4,277
2,685
1.59
–
2014
4,108
2,289
1.79
1,091
2015
4,396
2,513
1.75
1,027
2016
4,520
2,469
1.83
987
2017
4,062
2,499
1.63
812
2018
4,163
2,283
1.82
1,013

Our current NSDCC inventory is 25% higher than last year, but it just highlights what a great year we had in 2017 – when the TL/TS ratio was similar to the full-tilt frenzy we had in 2013.

This year looks a lot like the more-normal years of 2014-2016, when the sledding was much tougher.  As long as our current stats are staying in-line with previous years, we should be fine.

Expect more of the same – buying and selling homes is going to be difficult.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Oct 23, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 1 comment

Recession To Hit Home Prices?

Did you know that our Homeowners’ Bill of Rights expired?  Don’t worry – the state legislature has a new bill in place to reinstate many of the old provisions:

Article on the CA HBOR

I found the end of the article somewhat intriguing.  The author explains that because of rising mortgage rates, sales will slow and prices flatten or drop:

The original Homeowner Bill of Rights was scheduled to expire in 2018, undoubtedly because the 2012 legislature figured the foreclosure crisis would be well over by now.

They were right — foreclosures reached a healthy level in 2016, and have remained low well into 2018. But the cycle of housing boom and bust continues to roll on, and the next recession is approaching on the horizon.

Experts forecast the next economic recession to arrive in 2020. Leading up to that recession, home sales volume will slow (as it is already in the process of doing) and home prices will flatten and drop off, expected to begin in 2019. This is all precipitated by rising interest rates, which have dampened buyer purchasing power and discouraged homebuyers.

Slowing sales and falling prices inevitably lead to an uptick in foreclosures as fewer homeowners who need to sell are able to. However, the 2020 recession won’t see the same type of foreclosure activity that reached a crisis level in 2008 and the years following. The laws put in place in the recovery years have stemmed the tide of unqualified homeowners, thus more homeowners will be able to continue to pay their mortgage during the coming recession than in 2008.

She notes that because home purchasers had to qualify, there will be fewer foreclosures the next time around – good!

For home prices to drop, we would need motivated sellers who will agree to sell for whatever the market will bear – like the bank clerks used to do with REOs.  But with fewer (if any) foreclosures, who is going to dump on price?

Expect that any dip in pricing will be gradual and drawn out.  Homeowners aren’t going to give up their equity easily, and would rather spend a few more years in paradise than believe the dreamy value of their home is wrong.

Posted by on Oct 22, 2018 in CA Homeowners Bill of Rights, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

The total number of pendings went up 2% this week, and the number of closed sales for the first half of October (116) is higher than last year (114).

Statistically, the market is ‘fine’ up to the $1,600,000s.

The actives/pendings count for NSDCC listings priced under $1,650,000 is 355/183, or almost exactly the 2:1 ratio we use to describe a healthy market.

It may feel like a bit of a struggle now, but the distractions have just begun.  Halloween is next week!

Read More

Posted by on Oct 22, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Open House Report

My wife Donna has been the unsung hero behind the scenes all these years.

But with Kayla’s departure, we have the marketing duties being absorbed by Compass support staff, and Donna sliding into KK’s shoes as a frontline realtor on top of all the regular things she does to help get escrows closed.

Posted by on Oct 21, 2018 in About Kayla, About the author, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Klinge Realty, Why You Should List With Jim | 5 comments

Modern Farmhouse Open 12-3

We’re having open house 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday to find the buyer, and to keep the pressure on those who have seen it, and may be lurking (in case they’re thinking that waiting longer might mean a better price).

Relentless activity keeps the buyers hopping!

A week ago, the Red team’s estimate was $1,040,313, much like the list price:

After a flurry of hits on their website, they called it a Hot Home, and raised their estimate to $1,055,196.  But then we lowered the price to $999,000:

Conveniently, after we lowered the price, they dropped their estimate by $70,458 in three days, and is now is within $239 of the zestimate:

We can put to rest any question about how they determine their estimates – they just mirror the list prices.

Posted by on Oct 20, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Tom Tarrant, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Move to Mexico?

Here’s a look at a remote community high in the hills of Mexico – where a realtor says you can get a nice house for $200,000. Medical, prescriptions, and assisted-living all run about one-third of the cost in the U.S. Hat tip daytrip:

Correspondent Mike Kirsch recently traveled to one of the country’s most eclectic melting pots of foreign citizens along the shores of Lake Chapala, south of Guadalajara, to explore a unique expat community.

Posted by on Oct 19, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Where to Move | 3 comments