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Category Archive: ‘Jim’s Take on the Market’

“Severe Housing Drought”

We are used to headline porn, but this one sounds startling – are we having a Severe Housing Drought?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/this-is-whats-behind-the-severe-housing-drought.html

In the article, she says that nationally we have the fewest homes for sale than at any time in the last 18 years.  But are they just selling faster, which would give the appearance of low inventory?  If we have a similar number of houses being listed and they are selling faster, I wouldn’t consider that a drought, let alone a severe drought.

First, let’s compare the total supply and number of closed sales in 2017 to previous years – these are the numbers from January 1st to March 15th:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
1,042
$1,149,000
518
$842,950
31
2014
1,029
$1,295,000
464
$981,500
30
2015
1,043
$1,345,000
459
$1,145,000
31
2016
1,145
$1,489,900
421
$1,105,584
26
2017
987
$1,499,000
431
$1,200,000
24

This year’s number of new listings is 7% below the average of the last four years, but I wouldn’t call that a drought. If I watered my grass 7% less, it wouldn’t die. Besides, 40% of all listings don’t sell, so maybe the fewer listings just means fewer OPTs? The number of closed sales is much lower than previous years, but better than 2016.

How about the rest of the county?

San Diego County

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
6,749
$479,000
4,426
$402,000
30
2014
7,077
$539,000
3,544
$475,000
28
2015
7,129
$569,000
3,582
$500,000
30
2016
7,146
$559,925
3,634
$532,500
24
2017
6,347
$639,500
3,696
$560,000
20

There are 10% fewer listings this year, compared to the average of the previous four years, but sales are HIGHER than any of the last three years. There isn’t a perfect relationship between listings and sales, because some of the closed sales were listed before January 1st. But the trend looks fine.

I don’t keep a record of the number of houses that are pending, but a couple of months ago we were around 300 in NSDCC (between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Here is today’s count:

Area
# of Active Listings
# of Pendings
Median DOM
NSDCC
795
413
22
San Diego County
3,485
3,070
15

The reason we have a record-low number of homes for sale is because they are selling so fast.  Severe drought isn’t the right adjective – can we call it scorching hot?  Half of the pendings found a buyer in 15 days!

With half of the upcoming closed sales finding their buyer that fast, it means they probably paid the seller’s price, or close.  The other half are sellers who are willing to wait until they get their price!  It means the pricing trend should continue upward.

I think we’re back in the frenzy zone!

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Frenzy, How Hot?, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Nice Chevy Truck

Not bad for a guy who went to Cal State Fullerton! From wsj.com:

Scuttling plans to build an elaborate new home, actor Kevin Costner is putting a Santa Barbara County beachfront property on the market for $60 million, according to co-listing agent Tim Hoctor.

The roughly 10.25-acre parcel is on a bluff in Carpinteria, Calif., about 10 miles outside the city of Santa Barbara. The property has views of the Pacific and the mountains, and a path leads from the house to the beach.

The property currently contains a modest house. Mr. Costner had designed a large home, pool and guesthouse for the property, but never got around to building it, said Mr. Hoctor, who said he is a longtime friend of Mr. Costner’s.

Mr. Costner bought the parcel for $28.5 million in 2006, according to public records. Mr. Costner already has a home on the beach in Carpinteria, Mr. Hoctor said, but decided to buy this property after jogging by it one day and seeing a for sale sign. At the time, the parcel spanned about 17.25 acres and included a polo practice field. In 2007, Mr. Costner sold 7 acres to his neighbor, hedge funder Bruce Kovner.

Mr. Costner converted the polo field to a baseball field. “We’ve had some great baseball games there,” Mr. Hoctor said. Mr. Costner removed other structures on the site in preparation for building the new house, he said.

Ultimately, however, Mr. Costner and his wife decided not to build on this property because they’re busy with their three young children and have been spending much of their time at their home in Aspen. “They were really sad,” Mr. Hoctor. “It took them months to decide what to do.”

Mr. Costner, 62, won two Academy Awards for “Dances with Wolves.” He recently appeared in the drama “Hidden Figures.” He couldn’t be reached for comment.

More photos here:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2825-Padaro-Ln_Carpinteria_CA_93013_M29883-00888

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Interesting Houses, Jim's Take on the Market, View | 0 comments

Home Seller and Buyer Tips

Are you thinking of selling and/or buying this year?

Here are some ideas to hopefully give you an edge in conquering what usually ends up being the 1% to 2% difference between the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!

Home Sellers

  1.  Our listing agreement suggests getting a home inspection prior to hitting the market. It’s a good idea; fix what’s wrong in advance, and then give buyers a copy to demonstrate your pride of ownership.
  2.  Know where you are going to move, and only hit the open market when you are 100% committed to selling. You might get an offer the first day!
  3.  Showing the house is inconvenient but necessary – the more you do it, the better your chances.  Be ready to show the house on the day it hits the open market – and expect dozens of lookers to visit in the first 7-10 days.
  4.  Do two things to make a great first impression; spruce up the curb appeal and insist on top-quality photos.
  5.  Be smart about price – make it attractive, and you’ll stand out.
  6.  Ask agents about bidding war strategies, and recent experiences.  Spreading out the offers on your coffee table and picking one isn’t a strategy.
  7.  Avoid gimmicks like range pricing or ‘coming soon’.  A clean, straight-forward approach is attractive to buyers.
  8.  Determine if a company brand name is a benefit or a crutch.
  9.  Real estate ‘teams’ means you get passed around. Make sure to identify who handles the buyer inquiries, and that they are top-notch sales people.
  10. The buyers you want to attract – the ones that pay too much – are represented by lousy agents who don’t know the difference.  Get Good Help – hire a listing agent who can carry any agent to the finish line.

Home Buyers

  1. See more houses in person.  You have to keep your chops up, because low inventory causes complacency.  If all you do is shop online, you’ll look for any reason NOT to buy, and stay home. But there are no perfect houses.
  2.  Start looking at least six months before your lease is up.
  3. There aren’t many rules, and every listing agent is different.  Work with an agent who has a track record getting buyers to the finish line.
  4.  Don’t expect much from sellers regarding repairs.
  5.  Be open to fixers. To get more comfortable, line up contractors in advance and ask for a sample quote so you know what to expect.
  6.  Expand the target zone, but buy in a great school district.
  7.  If affordability is an issue, compromise on size before location. You can always add on later.
  8.  Properly evaluate the negatives, and the appropriate discounts.
  9.  Know what to do in a bidding war.
  10.  Your agent should suggest an offer price, and a strategy behind it.

These are some basic, general tips, but the best thing you can do is to get an experienced agent on your side – someone who is closing at least one sale per month (check at zillow).

I am available, and would love to assist you! JtR

klingerealty@gmail.com

Posted by on Mar 22, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Tips, Advice & Links | 0 comments

Zestimate Accuracy – Wack!

Did you notice that the zestimate wasn’t listed in the Real Estate Online Tools?

It is wackier than ever!

Last year, we saw the zestimate be hundreds of thousands of dollars too high on a custom home west of the I-5 in Leucadia – and once I inputted the listing on Zillow, their zestimate went higher:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

They claim to always be improving their algorithms, but this new example is hard to explain.  On my latest listing in a very normal tract neighborhood in NE Carlsbad, I gave them the benefit of the doubt.  I just sold the exact same model for $810,000 in December, but maybe they are slow to update?  The zestimate of my new listing was $744,222:

But once I inputted the listing on Zillow last Friday, the zestimate zoomed to $851,243!

Does it mean that Zillow has finally jumped on the bandwagon and are supporting their Premier Agents with zestimates that come in around the list prices!!!  If their primary concern was placating their paying customers, the Premier Agents, this would be a good way to do it!

Here is today’s zestimate – back where we started, with 5s instead of 2s – how can it fluctuate up and down 14% over five days??

I guess when you look at a zestimate, you can only hope you are looking on the right day!  14% swings over 5 days? Could it be any more unpredictable?

Save

Posted by on Mar 20, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Tips, Advice & Links, Zillow | 6 comments