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(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Carmel Valley’

Investors in Carmel Valley?

A reader asked if there has been an influx of investors around Carmel Valley.

Buying an investment property is worth considering.  Money sitting in the bank couldn’t be more idle, and the rents around the 92130 have been averaging $2/sf, which is pretty strong.  We’ve heard that big investor groups have been active around the country – are they making a local push?

I checked the tax records of the 44 homes that have sold over the last 12 months in Pacific Highlands Ranch.  These are primarily the detached homes with small yards selling in the $900,000s near Del Mar Heights Rd. and Carmel Valley Rd.

Of the 44 sales, only three had a mailing address that didn’t match the property address – a good sign that recent buyers have been mostly owner-occupants.  Only two of the 44 paid all-cash too, and there were no corporate or partnership names as buyers either.

The combined HOA/Mello-Roos payments of $500+ per month probably prevent a decent cash flow for rentals that are financed.  I doubt that Pardee or Taylor Morrison are encouraging investor buys either, so there are hurdles that would cause investors to look elsewhere.

But if they aren’t buying resales at the lower end of one of the hottest areas in the county, then their impact on the market elsewhere is probably limited too.

The owner-occupant buyers are willing to pay more money because they seek the additional value of securing a newer home in the best school district to raise their family.  Investors aren’t going to pay more than owner-occupants any time soon.

As much as we’d like to believe that there could be nefarious actions at work to undermine our local real estate market, the more I look at it, the more it seems like we’re enjoying an environment driven by owner-occupants seeking a quality place to live long-term.

Posted by on May 2, 2017 in Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Real Estate Investing | 5 comments

Carmel Valley Wrap-Up

2016-11-17-10-31-16

We did open escrow before Thanksgiving on the sale of the two-bedroom  home in Trilogy 2 in Carmel Valley.

The MLS entry had been on Friday morning, with open house scheduled for 12-3 on Saturday and Sunday. The weather was somewhat overcast, it is a gated community, and it was the week before Thanksgiving – how many would attend?

Being the least-expensive detached-home in the whole zip code probably drove the activity, and we had parades of people both days.  By Tuesday, I had received seven written offers!

Here are my notes:

  1. As what usually happens, the first person who came to Saturday’s open house was probably the most-motivated – and made a great offer, though not right away.  I didn’t get any offers until Sunday, which made me think that buyers were either being very diligent about price, and/or strategic about delaying their offer, knowing that we were doing open house on Sunday (it is better to wait until after Sunday’s open house and get a feel for the action).
  2. Not only were the offers rolling in slowly, but they were also very orderly about price – nobody was going much over list, so it was a real horse race.  The comps were a problem, for a number of reasons; a) All three Trilogy neighborhoods use the same street name, Carmel Creek (making them all sound the same), b) some of the comps backed to busy streets, c) there is a 1,409sf, and a 1,410sf model, but they aren’t that similar.  To help buyers sort it out, I produced a simple map:

comps-map

If I had a chance to do it over, for easier reading I would group 1,3,7,8,10 as the more-valid comps, and those with street noise (2,4,5,6,9) as the inferior group.

3. We issued requests to every buyer for their highest-and-best offer, which helps to make it a fair race – the early offerors may not have known how competitive it is, and they deserve a chance to re-bid. Another benefit of requesting highest-and-best offers is that it buys time for other buyers to get in the game. In this case, the winner saw the house on Monday, and made offer right away.

4. I was working the phones all weekend, so once we opened escrow on Tuesday, I thought the action might die down.  But I got another handful of calls from people who saw a rental ad in Craigslist – and it’s not the first time it’s has happened. Somebody took my pro photos and remarks off my listing and created a Craigslist rental ad for $1,975 per month, which is well under market.  It is a scam that has been running for years – the guy on the phone tries to convince people that the rent is so attractive that you won’t mind sending the first and last month’s rent to a faraway address and wait by your mailbox for the keys.  But they never come.

I notified Craigslist immediately, and they are quick to take these scam ads down, but you feel sorry for anyone who gets duped.

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Posted by on Nov 29, 2016 in Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Scams, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Carmel Valley New Listing

11311-carmel-creek-rd-004_web
11311-carmel-creek-rd-011_web

Holy cow – only $729,000 for a spectacular detached-home in gated Trilogy!

This is one of the premium locations high up the hill and away from road noise. The kitchen has been updated with new stove, refrigerator, dishwasher and backsplash, plus there is new carpet, new paint inside and out, hardwood floors, and the backyard is a tropical oasis with privacy!

Located in the coveted Del Mar school district too – where the least-expensive detached home for sale today is $899,000 – WOW!  Close to the I-5 Bypass/Carmel Mountain Rd. exit – skip the traffic jams – and only 3 miles to the beautiful Torrey Pines State Beach!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11311-Carmel-Creek-Rd-San-Diego-CA-92130/16777923_zpid/

cc-yard

Open 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday!

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Posted by on Nov 17, 2016 in Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Zillow 2017 Forecasts

2017-la-jolla

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It’s that time of the year – the 2017 forecasts are starting to roll out!

Zillow has been conservative about our local markets.  For the most part, the actual appreciation of the Zillow Home Value Index has been higher than their forecasts over the last two years.

Their local forecasts for 2017 are all lower than their 2016 guesses, and what they are predicting could also be described as ‘Flatsville’.  If their local forecasts of +0.9% to +2.2% come true, it would mean that several sellers would end up selling for less than they could have gotten in 2016.

Are we ready for that yet?

Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts

Town
2015 Forecast/Actual
2016 Forecast/Actual
2017 Forecast
Carlsbad
+2.7%/+4.8%
+1.9%/+3.8%
+1.3%
Carmel Valley
+0.3%/+5.4%
+1.4%/+1.9%
+0.9%
Del Mar
+5.5%/+1.1%
+1.4%/+2.6%
+1.1%
Encinitas
+0.6%/+8.3%
+2.4%/+6.3%
+2.2%
La Jolla
+2.7%/+6.6%
+2.3%/+6.1%
+2.1%
RSF
+0.4%/+11.1%
+3.7%/-0.5%
+1.9%
San Diego
+1.7%/+6.4%
+2.1%/+4.0%
+1.7%
Solana Beach
+2.7%/+6.4%
+2.2%/+2.6%
+1.4%

The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.

encinitas-2017

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Posted by on Oct 17, 2016 in Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Encinitas, Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Solana Beach, Zillow | 0 comments

Higher-End Inventory

orangeco

Our favorite doomer went off again this week, focusing on how the high-end inventory has grown recently in the hot markets:

http://mhanson.com/8-9-hanson-house-supply-surging-time-highs-toxic-trend-change-suddenly-focus/

The graph above shows the inventory of Orange County homes listed for $1,300,000 or higher (San Diego wasn’t included but is similar to the OC).

Mark likes to believe that prices have to fall – his quote:

In other words, higher-end real estate prices have much more air underneath them than lower-end prices have air above them. The resulting house price compression will accelerate taking all price bands lower until the higher-end housing market can catch a macro bid.

Here is how inventory in our higher-end areas have changed since May 26, 2015:

Area
5/26/15 Actives
Today’s Actives
Diff
Del Mar & Solana Beach
73
99
+36%
Encinitas
91
110
+21%
La Jolla
185
218
+18%
RSF
237
275
+16%
Carmel Vly
116
126
+9%

Yep, our inventory in the tonier parts of town is higher but it has been so low lately that an extra 20-40 or so houses on the market in each area isn’t going to hurt much.  These are the only numbers I have for comparison, and May vs. August isn’t that great either – there is more build up of the unsuccessful sellers in every August.

Most importantly, the high-end sellers have more horsepower – they can hold out longer, and in most cases, will only sell if they get their price.

Rancho Santa Fe has been the harbinger of what we can expect elsewhere – lots of listings sitting around not selling, but few lowering their price – they are happy to wait.

Unless we get a surge of boomer liquidations, the worst thing that will happen is the whole high-end market will go stagnant.

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If you have concerns, just buy in Carmel Valley. In the first 7 months of 2015, there were 276 houses sold in the 92130, and this year there were 321 – a 16% increase!  And that doesn’t include the 100+ new CV homes sold this year.

Carmel Valley pricing statistics have been flat though. The average cost-per-sf only went up from $413/sf to $419/sf, and the median sales price actually went down from $1,178,000 to $1,124,000.  It’s probably a reason why they’ve had so many sales!

Posted by on Aug 11, 2016 in Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments