San Diego did about as well as any of the higher-end markets last year with a +8.5% year-over-year pricing gain, in spite of some of the ivory-tower doubters! I think we will see a positive pricing trend in 2024 too.
These guys remind me of the late James Harman and Those Dangerous Gentlemen – rockin’ the blues!
2642 Lange Ave., San Diego
4 br/3.5 ba, 3,426sf
YB: 2005
Lot size = 6,200sf
SP = $2,000,000 – we represented the buyers.
Welcome home to your fantastic casual custom residence in the desirable west end of University City. Completely rebuilt in 2005, you can enjoy a stylish coastal/ocean theme offering a versatile floorplan (with plenty of space for everyone) along with water and solar energy efficiency. Move-in ready, with other features that include an eat-in kitchen with six burner Wolf cooktop, family lounge, walk-in pantry, a spacious laundry room, an upstairs bonus room with abundant built-ins, tons of storage space, add gleaming wood floors, new carpet and freshly painted interiors. Views of Mt. Soledad from front and back yards. Location is within close proximity to UCSD, UTC, Freeways and minutes to La Jolla Shores beach!
There have only been 83 NSDCC sales recorded in December, 2023, which means we may not make it to 100 closings. January isn’t looking too good either, and from what I can find, we’ve never had less than 100 monthly sales, let alone in back-to-back months. But it’s coming.
It puts the squeeze on everyone.
Buyers lose faith that there will be more homes to consider and end up jumping at one. Sellers either think they can get away with any price and tack on an extra 5% to 10% over the comps from 2021….or they give up altogether and decide to wait until the market “gets better”.
Even with a little extra inventory, the market is going to look and feel uncertain. Is it going up or down?
When we are having the fewest sales ever, the the evidence is thin, and the results vary!
NSDCC December Sales Under $4,000,000:
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+ OVER their list price: 12
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+ UNDER their list price: 17
Get Good Help!
1317 Rincon Rd., Escondido
3 br/2 ba, 2,273sf
YB: 1982
0.47-acre lot
LP = $1,097,000
SP = $1,000,000 – we represented the buyers
A fine example of country living!
This is the tenth sale in the last month that closed $100,000+ over their list price!
It’s going to be a wild spring selling season!
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 29th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2024!
This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 29th.
The summary of 2023 guesses:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy
186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
Last year, the contest ended on February 15th, and Rob Dawg’s guess of 186 was the closest to the 182 count that day. But since mid-February, another twenty-two January listings were added – go figure! Lauren S. – you were the actual winner last year so you’ll get four tickets for this season. This year, let’s extend the contest to the last day of February before picking the winner!
The lack of choices help cause frenzy conditions. When a top-quality listing hits the market, buyers feel like this might be their only chance this month, or this year, to buy such a good match to their needs – and then the lack of transparency makes them go nutty. Comparing the new inventory this month will help us predict the rest of the selling season.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
The NSDCC inventory is starting off the new year with virtually identical numbers as it did in 2023!
The big difference?
Last year everyone thought we had a recession coming, and this year it’s all blue sky ahead.
At the beginning of 2023, the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.48% and all we heard was that existing homeowners would never sell because their existing 3% rate had them ‘locked-in’.
Today’s rate is 6.61% and everyone says that the lower rates will free up inventory this year!
Let’s examine the statistics that will give us a better feel for the future of home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad. These are the three areas that are full of the homogeneous tract homes that give us a better read on the trends – they had 62% of the NSDCC sales last year:
To say that we’re in a mature market controlled by baby boomers is putting it lightly. The ‘locked-in’ effect has been around for a long time for whatever reason – but mostly because we live in paradise:
The vast majority of those who have been in their home since 2016 or longer are ‘locked-in’ because of the price they paid – they aren’t going to pay double or triple what they paid for their current home to just move down the street or around the corner. If they have lived in the same home this long, chances are they will stay to the end – and we’re talking about 80% to 90% of today’s homeowners!
Thankfully, life happens. Death, divorce, and job transfers will keep causing homes to come up for sale.
It will take a 20% YoY surge in NSDCC inventory this year just to match the number of homes for sale in 2022, and I’ll be happy if it is just a 10% increase over last year!
But we have become accustomed to frenzy conditions, and for many it is all they know. The current environment feels somewhat like 2013 again, which was the last time we had a non-covid surge. We were coming off a hot 4Q12, even though rates didn’t change much:
But the market exploded in 2013, just because. I think it’s going to happen again this year, just because.
We’ll find out soon enough – our first listing of the year will hit the market a week from today!
A production company devised a few musical experiences at the 2024 Rose Parade, and our daughter Natalie was one of the dancers! The parade started with a couple of songs, and the second song was sung inside a car (Honda was the main sponsor). Natalie was in the front seat, and got terrific face time on TV!
Think your job is tough? They rehearsed from 1-6am this morning in costume!
I produced 166 YouTube videos on my main channel this year, and these were the best, as decided by me. All had to have 200+ views to qualify:
This is just another grandma house blowing out at $125,000 over list, which isn’t remarkable. But this is the only video ever in which I slipped and fell down:
Some of my best thoughts about the market, long-term:
The Frenzy Cruise was hot all year and a good indicator that buyers will keep paying over list price for a home they really want. It’s just a matter of how much over:
Daughter Natalie had the time of her life touring football stadiums in America with Karol G this summer:
She will be dancing in the Grand Finale with Jordin Sparks but will also be featutred with other performers during the parade, starting at 8am Monday!
