NSDCC Picking Up Steam
On Monday morning, these were the counts of active and pending listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
Actives: 312
Pendings: 149
This morning, the counts are:
Actives: 286 (-26)
Pendings: 164 (+15)
These are pre-Super Bowl numbers and it’s been pouring rain for a week!
What’s going to happen once we get into the more-traditional selling season of March, April, and May?
These blog posts are uploaded onto my LinkedIn page, and it was there yesterday that Carl asked what my crystal ball said about pricing this year.
It’s going to keep going up!
The houses that aren’t well presented and are sloppy on price are going to sit. But those that have something special about them, and/or are presented well and have an attractive price are going to find a buyer in the first week or two.
NSDCC Supporting Data:
2023 Median List Price: $2,199,000
2023 Median Sales Price: $2,157,500
January, 2024 Median List Price: $2,200,000
January, 2024 Median Sales Price: $2,275,000
The median list price of today’s 164 pendings: $2,499,950
Some buyers are getting deals, mostly on the scratch-and-dent homes where sellers and listing agents didn’t do much, if anything, to prepare the home for sale. But look at the January median sales price – it’s higher than the median list price!
Here we go again!
We are already on our way to a +10% increase in pricing – and it’s only the first week of February!
It’s Time For X
This band epitomizes the L.A. punk scene of the late 70s and 80s…and 90s, and ever since. There will be another very special show this year or next:
Zillow Local Appreciation Guesses, 2024
If Zillow made their predictions based on traffic to their website, it would be impressive. I’m not sure how they figure these though.
Generally, they are expecting +3% to 4% in home values around here over the next 12 months:
Carlsbad 92008
Carlsbad 92009
Carlsbad 92010
Carlsbad 92011
Carmel Valley 92130
Del Mar 92014
Encinitas 92024
Rancho Santa Fe 92067
Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley
While it would appear that there was a big jump in new listings last month, the January count wasn’t unusual – it’s just inching its way back to a more-normal pace:
January New Listings – Totals of Three Areas Above
2019: 234
2020: 186
2021: 157
2022: 113
2023: 101
2024: 106
The pricing leveled off when rates jumped in 2Q22, with more volatility lately:
Some buyers are getting discounts too:
Get Good Help!
Culdesac Home
1371 Corte Paguera
5 br/3 ba, 2,854sf
YB: 1990
SP: $1,027,000
This 5-bed, 3-bath haven sprawls across 2,854 sqft. This home features NEW TILE ROOFING, new carpeting with upgraded padding, and PEX plumbing. This cul-de-sac gem comes with a 3 CAR GARAGE, NO HOA & NO MELLO ROOS. The appeal continues with french doors welcoming you into the meticulously-crafted interiors. Step into the foyer, greeted by high ceilings and an abundance of natural light, creating an inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of this home lies in its dual living spaces – a spacious family room and a cozy living room, complemented by a formal dining room and a delightful breakfast nook with a charming breakfast bar. Picture evenings spent in the grand master suite, complete with a jacuzzi/soaker tub and a fireplace, offering the perfect space for down time. Indulge in outdoor bliss through double sliders leading to your private oasis – an entertainer’s dream featuring a built-in fire pit, tile pool, jacuzzi, and an outdoor jungle gym. Outside…mature landscaping with beautiful palms, complemented by a drip system.
Homes.com Super Bowl Ads
Homes.com says they are going to be a primary real estate search portal, and well, it’s go time! One of the 30-second Super Bowl ads cost $7 million – a great place to spend big money if you’re trying to make a splash. This are just teasers for their Super Bowl ads:
The last video appears to have CoStar’s CEO Andy Florance in a cameo board room scene (:15). Both of them teasing the “2.11.24” Super Bowl date. He likes to go big with their promotion, and nothing is bigger than a Super Bowl ad. Should be fun to watch!
We will be seeing ads for Homes.com everywhere this year:
Zillow Meets Apple Vision Pro
View this post on Instagram
Zillow keeps feasting on lazy realtors!
Any agent could walk around their next listing with their phone’s camera running and comment on what people are seeing and why they should buy the house! The extra audio will be far more effective than any whiz-bang product that comes to market at any price.
Why don’t agents do that?
NSDCC January Sales & Pricing
January Detached-Home Sales & Pricing, La Jolla to Carlsbad
It was in June, 2022 that Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that spiked mortgage rates would “reset” the “overheated” pandemic housing market.
Last month had the highest pricing metrics AND the highest January mortgage rate in recent history!
Center of Carlsbad
Tim Wrisley took over for his mom as the purveyor of Carlsbad, and he has carried the burden quite nicely with his Carlsbad Magazine. No matter who you know, he probably knows them AND somebody else from the old days at Carlsbad High School.
In fact, it would have been natural for him to declare that the heart of Carlsbad is the high school – because back in the old days, it was the center for most people. But I like the nod he gives to South Carlsbad, the late-comer to the party by 10-20 years, and the conclusion here. One of Tim’s people wrote this:
https://www.clickoncarlsbad.com/
