If it feels like we’ve been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today’s inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today is why. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest reliable source of momentum for interest rates when it comes to scheduled data–big enough that the results can come in right in line with forecasts and still have a big impact.
Indeed, today’s results were right in line with forecasts. In month over month terms, core inflation was 0.3% and annual inflation was 3.6%. The Fed wants those numbers at 0.1-0.2 in monthly terms and 2.0% annually in order to be more confident about rate cuts. The annual number wouldn’t need to hit 2.0% as long as monthly numbers suggested we were well on our way.
And again, today’s monthly number only suggested 3.6% (0.3 x 12). Despite being almost twice as brisk as desired, the 0.3% rate of monthly core inflation was apparently a relief for bond traders who quickly began pushing rates lower. Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-specific bonds that correlate substantially with US Treasuries.
Other economic data helped the cause with Retail Sales coming in unchanged for April versus forecasts calling for a 0.4% increase. Taken together, the as-expected inflation data and weaker retail sales suggest cooler inflation pressure relative to Q1’s data–something all fans of low rates were hoping to see.
Mortgage Lenders were able to drop their average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate to 6.99% from 7.11% yesterday.
This chart shows identifies the hot spots, and not-so-hot spots, as compared to last year. Southeast Carlsbad and Carmel Valley both have substantially more pendings this year, and NW Carlsbad and Encinitas have roughly double the number of actives and where potential gluts might be forming.
Overall, there are 25% more active listings, and 21% more pending listings – so much of the additional inventory is getting soaked up.
Pricing is about the same as last year:
NSDCC Median List Price of Active Listings
May 15, 2023: $3,749,400
May 15, 2024: $3,895,000
NSDCC Median Sales Price in May
2023: $2,362,500 (178 sales)
2024: $2,310,000 (68 sales so far)
After last month’s eye-popping 200 sales, there was some hope that this month would be equally productive. But it looks like we’ll be fortunate to match last May’s count.
Everyone thinks that commissions will be negotiated with the offer. On the surface, it seems like a reasonable solution, but it will depend on whether the listing agent will stand up for their fellow agents getting paid, or wimp out and hide behind the seller.
The conversations will go like this:
Listing Agent: We finally got an offer on your $3,000,000 home!
Seller: How much?
Listing Agent: $2,900,000!
Seller: LOWBALLER!
Listing Agent: Well, we’ve been on the market for two months so buyers tend to come in lower.
Seller: Counter $2,980,000. I’ll pay his 2.5% commission at that price.
Listing Agent: Ok, I did that and they countered $2,950,000.
Seller: That’s ridiculous. But I’ll take it and penalize the agent instead. Pay him 1%.
Listing Agent: Good idea – you actually come out with MORE money that way!
Listing Agent to Buyer Agent: You got your price!
Buyer Agent: But I got screwed on the commission!
Listing Agent: Sorry, dude, but the seller insisted. Get it from your buyer!
Will agents stand up for one another? It’s doubtful, especially when ‘negotiating the commission with the offer’ literally means the commission paid by the seller could be anything, including zero.
Until the end of July, the commission rate offered by the listing agent in the MLS is set – the listing agent doesn’t get to change it later, which is a great relief to the buyer-agents.
But after July, the burden is going to be on the buyers to pay their agent’s commission too. Higher prices, higher rates, substantially more closing costs, and unrelenting sellers…..how much more can they take?
With the pendings count being flat for the last eight weeks, it means there have been as many new escrows as closings. It’s when the pendings count starts to fade that we will know the sales machine is breaking down, and there might be trouble ahead.
There has been a steady flow of new NSDCC listings hit the market (40-60 per week in 2024) which has to be encouraging for buyers. Not only are there more homes to consider, but it could also mean that it’s a little more likely that a glut could form and put some pressure on pricing. But it’s not happening yet – the number of actives has flattened out too.
The Latin America leg of the worldwide Karol G tour wrapped up in Brazil on Friday night, just in time for Natalie to make it home for Mother’s Day! Here are highlights from the show in Lima Peru:
Where Natalie as been, all while working full-time for us!
Their Top 10 states didn’t include California so obviously you should move to some place better!
If you’re looking for a great place to live, you might want to check out Utah.
For the second year in a row, Utah was named the best state in the nation, according to the 2024 rankings from U.S. News & World Report. It ranked second in America for education, third for its economy and infrastructure, and sixth for its fiscal stability.
“Utah has a vibrant, diverse economy and unsurpassed natural beauty, but what truly sets our state apart is our people,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said in a statement. “We lead the nation in volunteering and charitable giving every year and this spirit of community leads to a collaborative approach to problem solving, an ecosystem that supports innovation, and a culture that strengthens families and individuals.”
States were evaluated in eight categories: health care, education, economy, infrastructure, opportunity, fiscal stability, crime and corrections, and natural environment. More than 70 metrics and tens of thousands of data points were considered, including things like employment, internet access, affordability, and public safety. (Washington, DC, was not included in the analysis.)
There was another factor that weighed in on the story I told last week about throwing in commission to make a deal. The buyers were pregnant, and hoping to buy a home to which they could move in and get settled before having their babies.
We closed escrow on April 30th, and yesterday they had their twins – congratulations!
Phew – that was close!
The best thing about being a realtor is being involved in life-changing events with people, and being able to have some positive influence on the outcome.
Richard’s new listing in Sorrento Valley is priced at $1,674,000, which is much lower than you see in nearby Carmel Valley. If it looks similar to vintage CV it’s because it was also built by Pardee:
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
