Here’s another example of how sellers are making decisions these days.
It was time for our clients to sell the family homestead. Bless her heart, their Mom lived a happy life there through to the end, just like many around Olde Carlsbad. What a great place to spend the last 60 years of your life!
Like many, the house really hasn’t been touched – it’s all original. How much do you spend to prepare it for sale….if any? There is a decent ocean view…through the power lines. The lot is large enough to split and you can add the ADUs….and be into it for another $1,000,000 to $2,000,000? I sold the house three doors to the north and you can see that they’ve added the ADU. But they paid under $500,000 in 1999 – and when you buy right you don’t mind spending the money.
4030 Sunnyhill Dr., Carlsbad 92008
3 br/2 ba, 1,994sf
YB: 1960
Lot size: 26,100sf (0.60-acre lot)
SP: $2,000,000
As we were getting ready to go on the open market, the sellers were approached by a family friend. My list price was going to be $2,200,000 at the end of April, which is about the time that the chaos and uncertainty was really starting to affect the market.
Do you gamble and go on the open market? None of these 1/2-acre lots have sold for a long time, and we speculated that there is some pent-up demand, but at what price? This is a pure fixer which turns off most buyers, but could the builders/flippers be interested? At what price?
Our clients took the sure thing.
I had dreams of the open-house extravaganza of the year, and maybe of the decade, but it was the right move – the uncertainty was too high. I had my hands full with two appraisals, but they came in at value, and we closed as agreed.
For those potential sellers who are already writing off 2025 and plan to sell in the new year instead, note how the selling season has been starting sooner than ever. Peak pricing last year in Coastal North was in February, and this year it was January (scroll over):
The buyers’ enthusiasm tapers off after March:
If you do everything right, you should sell in the first 2-3 weeks:
Think the additional inventory this year was bad? There will be truckloads next year! Beat the rush and get out early – or just sell now!
The takeaways from the graph above will be different for different people.
Not suggested:
Those who did negotiate probably didn’t get much of a discount.
Most buyers and sellers were satisfied their agent was worth it.
Better agents are prevailing.
Why is it important to Get Good Help?
The failure rate will be higher this year.
In normal markets, we’ve had a success rate of 60% to 65% of the listings closing escrow successfully. During the frenzy, it was as high as 80%! But look at what we’re faced with now.
NSDCC Total Sales/Total Listings
2024: 1,837/2,831 = 65%
2025: 716/1,549 = 46%
Obviously, this year is incomplete but I did include all of the current pendings to approximate this year’s conditions. It’s unlikely that the success rate will be improving through the second half of 2025.
It’s likely that MOST of the sellers this year will be unsuccessful.
What’s for sure? There will be a load of listings in 2026.
Almost one-third of last month’s buyers paid over the list price…..for the fourth month in a row! Either sellers are being smart about pricing attractively, or a fair amount of the buyers and buyer-agents haven’t gotten the memo about the tougher market conditions.
Sales and pricing are holding up too.
The median sales price is almost identical to last May, and sales were higher:
He is predicting that sales and pricing will increase this year, which is optimistic:
Here are the local YoY comparisons:
It’s been a miracle that sales and pricing this year have kept up with the 2024 numbers. Any Fed rate cuts are going to come too late (September/October) to save the real estate market this year, but hopefully they will provide some juice for the early-2026 market.
I think a pattern is developing.
The first quarter of 2024 and 2025 were hot, then we muddle through the rest of the year. The same will probably happen next year too, where the surge of inventory bogs down the market by the second quarter. There aren’t enough buyers for every listing!
There isn’t anything that price won’t fix, and something has to give.
Either sales or pricing will need to be sacrificed. Or both
Yunnie is like Cramer where if you just do the opposite, the results are better.
I’ll guess that our local sales will finish this year at -6%, and pricing at -3% YoY.
Last week I thought inventory might have peaked for the year?
The dip from the previous week was all from high-end listings, some of which are now being refreshed and coming back on as new listings. Even though the lower-end inventory is rising steadily, at least the actives-to-pendings ratios show where the action is:
Under-$3M: 236 actives/82 pendings = 2.88
Over-$3M: 333 actives/54 pendings = 6.17
The quartiles are at their lowest points of 2025, yet it may not be enough:
Are there reasons for hope? The stock market has regained its losses from Liberation Day (which is huge), rates aren’t going up, and there are plenty of choices for home buyers who have guts. But you need to dig out the deals – they won’t be obvious.
Here’s an example of how home sellers can get jammed up by lower sales in the surrounding area and the market turning. During the frenzy, any lower-priced sales nearby were shrugged off by the anxious buyers who just wanted to get any house at any price. Not now.
Our listing at 29482 Vista Valley was the best custom estate on the golf course when it was built in 1987 – and it still is today. The house across the street – and not on the golf course – sold last June for $1,985,000 so at least I had one comp, although aged.
We hit the open market on January 22nd listed for $2,250,000.
The 2025 market was off to a fast start, and we had good activity – but no offers.
The Gopher Canyon corridor is a rural area like Bonsall/Fallbrook and it has some fine custom estates mixed with more-modest homes. Unfortunately, there weren’t any of the fine estates selling in 2025 and by April/May there had not been any sales above $1,900,000 nearby.
Plus, the new-home tract at the bottom of the hill is owned by the same guy who owns the golf club. They have sold 55 of their 60 new homes with club-membership options included, and over 90% of them closed under$1,500,000.
The only other sale within the golf estates was this 2br disaster. They did no improvements to sell it, no staging, and just dumped on price. Ouch:
I wasn’t getting any help from the surrounding sales!
We waited until mid-March to lower the price. Within a week after Liberation Day, it was obvious that it was impacting the market. We lowered another $100,000:
Finally we found retirees from Ohio who want to join their family here. Their agent was smart to float $1.6 and $1.7 prices by me, because her buyers were like most and wondering how much can they get away with! I told her to not bother.
She submitted a $1,800,000 cash offer, take it or leave it.
To be faced with having to accept an offer that was $450,000 under our initial list price was excruciating mentally, but it was our only offer in 100 days and there wasn’t any reason to think it will get better later. The sellers had some regret about not going on the market last summer like we had discussed, but that’s water under the bridge now.
We took the deal.
Though the house was mostly in original condition, it was immaculate. It had been a lightly-used and well-maintained vacation home for 30 years. How much could be wrong?
The home inspection did confirm – not much wrong here! But the roof had not been replaced, and Mr. Buyer had a previous roof history so he insisted.
They got roof-replacement quotes from $50,000 to $100,000, and in spite of me telling them that we weren’t going to do anything for them, they asked for another $25,000 off the price.
It was a smart move – do we ditch them and go for the two in the bush? No.
We took it, and it closed for $1,775,000, or 21% below the original price.
It was the cumulation of all the bad things that can happen:
Being a higher-end home in a more modest area
Being a custom-estate but buyers think it’s dated because kitchen isn’t white
Having a good golf view but not enough to compensate for above
Bad break with Liberation Day
It’s a good example of buyers who found a suitable home but wanted/needed the deal to be more attractive to get them to buy it. They had planned to move any time in the next year, so no rush. On our side, the outcome didn’t feel great but our sellers had already purchased a replacement home near their daughter and had no reason to fight what had become obvious after 100 days of trying.
There were no new pendings around our new listing in San Marcos – even though there are plenty of choices! The house for sale that is three doors down dropped their list price by $50,000, but all that does is balance out the competiton and slightly diminish my advantage of being the best value on the market.
On our Lindbergh listing, we’re going to hang tough as long as we can.
With so much competition and virtually no buyer activity, lowering the price might not do anything. The $50,000 drop by the neighbor was virtually unnoticeable. But if others start lowering too, then the price war is on and the first one out wins.
We’re not used to seeing that, or having to deal with it!
At this point, everyone is just hoping for a lucky sale. The house across the street had lowered their price already to $1,799,900 but no open houses scheduled for this weekend means they are going to leave it up to me and the $1,649,000 neighbor to conduct the price discovery.
This is my first example of three listings that got caught in the post-Liberation Day malaise, and they will demonstrate some of the real-life decisions that sellers are making in the current environment.
We have a lot riding on this one – it’s Natalie’s first listing!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
