In this week’s Compass Intelligence Weekly, Chief Economist Mike Simonsen breaks down the latest housing market data and uncovers a surprising trend: fewer and fewer homeowners are choosing to sell.
While home prices remain just slightly above 2024 levels, inventory is climbing—and yet, the number of new listings is flattening out. Mike calls this trend The Great Stay: Americans are staying in their homes, jobs, and towns longer, driven by high mortgage rates and a sluggish job market.
This week’s episode covers:
– New listings trend: why seller momentum has stalled
– Inventory growth and what it means for buyers
– Pending home sales and early signals for Q3
– Home prices holding—but barely
– Price reductions and what they reveal about buyer behavior
Get ahead of the headlines with real-time data from Altos Research and insights from Compass—the #1 real estate brokerage in the U.S. by sales volume.
25%: Not getting the price they wanted
22%: Slow sale
18%: Last-minute collapse
16%: Inspection issues
9%: Not finding a new home in time
My thoughts on each topic from the bottom up:
Not finding a new home in time (9%) – Don’t do this! If you are selling the home in which you reside, then have a clear path to where you will be moving. Renting first and doing the double move is a better option than buying the wrong house at the wrong price. Bridge loans are expensive but will avoid the double-move which isn’t cheap either. Have a solution in place before putting your home on the market to avoid the disaster of having the perfect buyer offer right away and you don’t take them up on it.
Inspection issues (16%) – Get a professional home inspection weeks or months prior to going on the market. It gives you ample time to correct anything, and/or disclose to the buyers before they make an offer. The conversation to sell our Linda Lane listing began over two years ago, and the house was untouched and tired-looking:
We wanted to make the home presentable without spending big money because we agreed that it would need to be attractively priced due to the proximity to the high school. The buyers’ home inspection revealed what everyone expected, which made it easier to come to an agreement – and they released all contingencies yesterday. If the buyers didn’t have our previous home inspection from the beginning, the condition might have carried more of a shock.
Last-minute collapse(18%) – I heard a story this week about buyers who released their loan and appraisal contingencies and the agent thought the home inspection was acceptable. He removed the staging and had the seller move out – only to have the buyers bail on the last day! In every agreement, there is a date specified for all contingencies to be released – after which the deposit is at risk. We always make the deposit the maximum allowable 3% of the purchase price and it’s very rare that buyers bail out after that day and lose their deposit. The time period mentioned in the contract is 17 days, and there are still listing agents who insist on making it shorter – I had one who gave me three days! A shorter period makes the buyers antsy and more likely to blow out so I want to give them at least ten days. Plus, if you are worried about a last-minute collapse, do a little extra for the buyers when it comes to their repair requests. Deals blow up because buyers get miffed – we operate in the no-miff zone!
Slow sale(22%) – Do everything better before going on the market, and still expect that it’s possible to hit a flat spot in the market. Do more pre-listing improvements, only have high-quality photos and videos, and hire a great agent and take their advice. Mentally prepare for price reductions, and when. Which leads to….
Not getting the price they wanted (25%) – It was only during the frenzy when mortgage rates were 3% that sellers could actually name their price. Throughout the rest of history, the ready, willing, and able buyers have determined what a home is worth. Sellers who embrace that fact and acknowledge that every listing is experimenting in price discovery these days will come out ahead.
The current market conditions are filled with uncertainty and chaos every day, and it’s just a different collection of variables for buyers to tackle (and you can say a better group of variables than having to decide how much OVER the list price to pay and losing several bidding wars).
Buyers have never been that comfortable since prices have doubled, and it feels like miracle work sometimes. But our Linda Lane listing demonstrates how a clear, thorough strategy from the beginning can cause the most challenging of homes to be sold for top dollar the first week and close in less than 30 days without incident! Even in this market!
If you want to move and still be within a day’s car ride from San Diego, then here’s your weather scorecard from one of the hottest days of 2025.
Hopefully you have visions of having us sell your house and then paying cash for a newer one-story up in the hills somewhere overlooking the lake. We can help you with that! Check out Big Bear/Lake Arrowhead and northern Arizona.
We lived in Phoenix when I was a kid during the 1970s. The 117 degrees is no joke and it’s best to go on vacation out-of-state in August and September – and the rest of the year is usually under 100 degrees. But it’s a dry heat!
This is the breakdown of the NSDCC active listings.
Only 38% of them are in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, so there are plenty of more reasonably-priced options. But the common thread of these unsolds is that they must not be trying too hard to sell. I say that because there have been 1,103 NSDCC closed sales this year, or about 155 sales per month on average. Nothing wrong with that!
Some of the highlights:
In the 92008 (NW Carlsbad), there are ten houses for sale listed for more than $4,000,000. Only four of the ten are oceanfront, and they are all $10,000,000+.
In Encinitas – which has exploded in recent years – the median list price is $3,350,000 and the average LP/sf is $1,284/sf.
Carmel Valley looks the healthiest with a median list price of $2,832,500, and an average LP/sf of $876/sf – with only 48 average days-on-market. Only ten of the 46 homes for sale are priced over $3,500,000.
The 469 NSDCC homes sold in the last 90 days have a median DOM of 25 days. It’s time for seller recalibration. Summer is going to be over before you know it!
Meanwhile, this is the typical view – just waiting for a comeback:
Above are examples of the mortgage rates are available today, and their cost.
I don’t do business with any of these lenders listed above and EVERY lender is able to give you a 6% rate today (and even under 6% with additional cost). Check with your favorite reliable lender for their quote
Points = the fee calculated as a percentage of loan amount.
“Oh Jim, those points add up to a lot of money.” HAVE THE SELLER PAY IT!
Every seller today will gladly pay 1% to 2% towards a rate buydown, rather than accept a lowball offer.
The number of houses and condos for sale in San Diego County is 44% higher than last July – and well above any count during the pandemic. Let’s also note than in the 2024 inventory kept rising in August and September – we’re not done yet!
If it goes the same way it did the last two years, the median list price will dip 5% to 10% over the next few months. It probably means that the most aspirational sellers cancel their listing earlier and will instead wait to sell ‘when the market gets better’:
After months of chaos and no relief from high mortgage rates, how many of us thought the pendings count would be higher today – in August – than it was at this time last year?
Maybe it’s a delayed response after Liberation Day caused the dip in April?
The increase in the active listings is still spread across all price points too:
There are plenty of choices and rates might get a little better. Are we due for a mini-rally over the next few weeks before the fourth quarter deep freeze arrives?
The MTG bill submitted to the House of Representatives sounds like a good way to spur listings and sales in the popular higher-end areas where appreciation has climbed significantly – like California.
But if it doesn’t pass, then we’re all standing around waiting for nothing.
What could be in the way?
The estimated cost is $6 billion, but Rep. Greene says they can just reduce foreign aid to cover it. There could be some pushback there.
The Senate has their own super-duper housing billthat just passed in committee but it’s more about zoning changes – there isn’t a mention of eliminating or modifying the capital-gains tax in their bill. Congress might decide to skip anything about capital-gains.
The other possibility is to approve a modified version. The NAR has suggested in the past a doubling of the exemption amounts ($500,000 to $1,000,000), but those around here who have lived in their home for 20-30+ years have a larger gain than that. They aren’t going to be tempted to move unless they can get it all for free.
The State of California hasn’t joined in either, and if they don’t, then their 13% tax will throttle the baby boomers too.
Those are too many moving parts to believe a complete tax exemption is coming.
I don’t think there will be a version of the bill that gets passed that will impact the overall market in California – there will be politicians who balk at complete elimination of the tax. It would need to be a full-blown free pass to stimulate the longtimers to get off the couch and finally downsize.
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
