Trendy Tuesday – Natalie

The whole Klinge family is attending the 1000Watt Brand & Marketing Summit in Dallas this week – yeehaw!

One of today’s speakers dove into AI and how agents can use it to save hours of time doing mundane work. But I think everyone could benefit from these tidbits!

As of right now, I’m not one to use AI too much. I usually just ask some simple questions when I’m not in the mood to scour the internet for answers. Most recently I asked ChatGPT the wattage of my microwave by sending in a photo and I also asked why the red light of my blender was blinking. So that just proves how I’m really using AI to save time in my professional life.

One feature of ChatGPT I learned about from today’s speaker is custom GPTs. If you pay for Chat GPT Plus ($20/month), you unlock the ability to create custom GPTs for tasks and topics you repeatedly need assistance with. For example, the speaker hosts a podcast and he created a custom GPT to prepare him for each episode before filming. So now, instead of spending 30-60 minutes researching his next guest, he simply puts in the name of the guest and it produces all the information he needs based on his customization of the GPT.

I thought this was pretty sweet and could be used for plenty of tasks, both work related and not.

My first project: make a custom GPT to help me make our weekly KRG newsletter. I often include upcoming local events and sometimes it takes an annoying amount of time to find events that seem enjoyable, so hoping this makes it quicker. I just did a few rounds of questions and fine tuned the events it pulled by date, location, audience, etc. – so far so good! I’ll keep using it and see how it goes!

If you’re interested in doing the same, here are the steps:

1. Explore
2. Profile ? My GPTs ? Create
3. Add GPT Image (optional)
4. Add name, description, instructions
5. Enable capabilities
6. Click “create”

If you try it out, let me know what you use it for and how you perfect it!

Quantifying A Buyer’s Market

Let’s compare the start of 2025 to previous years.

The last obvious buyer’s market was in 2009, and in the graph above you can see how the supply swamped the demand.

This year, sales have been strong and the supply is still relatively muted. Cash sales are a major driver, and buyers wouldn’t be paying all cash if they didn’t have faith in the environment.

So we’re fine, at least for now.

There won’t be a major panic either – homeowners have too much equity, and not giving it away will feel like the perfect solution for a ‘soft’ or ‘bad’ market. They will just wait until next year.

There should be some great deals made by those who stay in the game and grind out a lowball deal here and there. But they will be rare.

The last downturn was made worse by the exotic low or no-down financing. Most of those who bought in the 2005-2007 era had no equity by 2009, and walking away was common and encouraged by the unscrupulous agents and lenders.

The environment is completely different now.

Everyone was nervous how the market would respond to the doubling of mortgage rates. Three years later, we have survived better than anyone imagined.

We’ll survive the ‘tariff transitory temporary two-step whoop-de-doo market’ too.

Rates Move Higher

So much for lower rates!

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04072025

We’re not in a buyer’s market is because sellers have to agree to it AND move down on price – if they don’t, then the market is just loitering.

Sellers have the right to hold out on price and either wait for a lucky sale, or hope that market pricing rises up to meet them and their aspirations. The latter has been working for years!

The selling season will run out of gas at some point.

It may have already.

It sure looks like the second half of 2025 is going to be sluggish. Only the gunslingers and crazy people will have much luck then.

So all we have are the next two months.

Mortgage rates will have some influence on the outcome. But the days-on-market will be the main cause of buyer reluctance to paying the seller’s price.

Three-quarters of the current inventory has been for sale for more than two weeks. If those aren’t sold in the next month or two – and their DOM ends up being 60-90 days or more – the chances of them selling in 2025 are remote at best.

Simple tip for home sellers: Decide how much of a discount you are willing to tolerate. Divide it in half, and reduce your price once in April, and once in May. If not sold by the end of June, pack it up and try again next year!

Buyer’s Market?

Are we in a buyer’s market?

No, not yet.

For a buyer’s market to actually happen, it would take sellers to acknowledge it, and act accordingly. Acknowledging it means lowering their price until they get offers, and then cut a deal with one of them.

We’re a long ways off from that happening.

Instead, let’s call it the ‘tariff transitory whoop-de-doo market’ for now.

It’s code for a paused, standoff, you-go-first market.

Previously, buyers hoped for mortgage rates to get under 6% to excite them, but now it’s going to take mid-5s at least to get them to re-engage. It will be too easy for them to pause for at least a week or two to see if the tariff talk scares any sellers to dump on price. Besides, they’ve seen all the current inventory and didn’t like any of it. Not at those prices anyway.

But the drop in rates has stalled. Inflation fears should keep them stalled.

If the rates don’t get the buyers going, then what’s left?

That’s right – there’s nothing price won’t fix!

Inventory Watch

In 1Q25, there were 410 sales – which was +8% YoY!

There are 419 NSDCC active listings today.

This probably reflects the normal optimism, but with prices this high, you have to think that there are going to be a lot of disappointed sellers:

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NSDCC Over List, March

The over-list sales in March were down YoY, but the sales and pricing are holding up. It’s just more mellow? There were 46 sales that closed over their list price, and 76% of those were under $3,000,000.

Statistically, the first quarter of 2025 looked a lot like it did in 2024.

The 1Q25 sales were 410 vs. 414 in 1Q24, and pricing was higher this year:

Let’s retire the old graph here for the record – it was scorching hot in 2021 and early 2022:

 

REO Follow Up

A guy commented on an old REO video that was one of my favorites of all-time. I remember it not only because an ice-cream truck was featured in the video (like so many of my REO videos back in the day) but also because a neighbor busted my chops for parking on the sidewalk here.

As you can see above, we sold it for $183,000. The video has 8,800 views:

Invitation Homes bought it for $275,000 in 2013, and still owns it:

I guess you can say they have hit the housing ATM since!

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