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Seabright Carlsbad

1065 Goldeneye View, Carlsbad

4 br/3 ba, 2,706sf

YB: 1998

LP = $1,795,000 – we represent the sellers.

This 4-bedroom (plus loft/office), 3-bath home has been meticulously maintained and upgraded with stylish light-colored wide plank hardwood floors, plantation shutters, crown molding, newer central A/C and high-grade artificial turf, front and back. Downstairs bedroom and full bath, newer kitchen with walk-in pantry, 3-car garage with workbench and loads of storage! The larger backyard is a real treat, and the mature landscaping provides unusual privacy – you’ll love it! The only house for sale in the coveted Seabright community, which is walking distance to Poinsettia Park and the highly-acclaimed Pacific Rim Elementary School. The house three doors down just closed for $2,125,000 on Jan. 4th!

Open house 12-3pm on this Friday and Saturday!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1065-Goldeneye-Vw-Carlsbad-CA-92011/52506745_zpid/






Our New Listing in SW Carlsbad

1065 Goldeneye View, Carlsbad

4 br/3 ba, 2,706sf

YB: 1998

LP = $1,795,000

This 4-bedroom (plus loft/office), 3-bath home has been meticulously maintained and upgraded with stylish light-colored wide plank hardwood floors, plantation shutters, crown molding, newer central A/C and high-grade artificial turf, front and back. Downstairs bedroom and full bath, newer kitchen with walk-in pantry, 3-car garage with workbench and loads of storage! The larger backyard is a real treat, and the mature landscaping provides unusual privacy – you’ll love it! The only house for sale in the coveted Seabright community, which is walking distance to Poinsettia Park and the highly-acclaimed Pacific Rim Elementary School. The house three doors down just closed for $2,125,000 on Jan. 4th!

Open house 12-3pm on this Friday and Saturday!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1065-Goldeneye-Vw-Carlsbad-CA-92011/52506745_zpid/








Above are the views & saves between 10pm and 6am!

Here is the Zillow 12-hour count:

Rising Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been rising steadily:

2022 has gotten off to a bad start for the bond market and consequently, mortgage rates.  The pace has been on the aggressive side with the average lender seeing an increase of more than a quarter of a point in a week and 3/8ths of a point in 2 weeks.  The most prevalent 30yr fixed quotes are now in the 3.625% range, up from 3.25% at the end of December.

How many guessers had rates in the mid-3s in the first half of January?

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, projects that mortgage rates will increase to 3.7 percent in 2022, pushed up by persistently higher inflation.

Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 3.3 percent for most of the year and be at 3.6 percent by the end of the year.

Daryl Fairweather, economist for Redfin, expects rates to rise slowly from around 3% to around 3.6% by the end of 2022, thanks to the pandemic subsiding and lingering inflation. That would mean about $100 more per month in mortgage payments for the median home.

MBA economists predict that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will rise to 4 percent by the end of 2022.

Bankrate.com predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will peak at 3.75 percent during the year and fall back to 3.5 percent by the end of the year. “Long-term rates will move higher in the first half of the year, but by the close of 2022, concerns about slowing economic growth will be unwinding that and bringing them back down,” he said. “This will be higher than where mortgage rates started the year but ending at levels previously unseen before the pandemic began in 2020.

Lending Tree predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will rise to near 4 percent by the end of the year.

If their predictions are right, then rates should flatline for the rest of the year and be a non-issue.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-01112022

Padres Contest on Inventory Surge

Are we going to get a surge of new listings in the coming months?

Our recent history doesn’t suggest it – the San Diego inventory has been the worst around (thanks Bill):

But let’s consider what used to be normal, and see if we can connect the dots.

NSDCC Number of Listings Between January 1st and June 30th:

Year
Total Number of NSDCC Listings, 1st Half
2017
2,703
2018
2,697
2019
2,708
2020
2,302
2021
2,164

The first-half inventory really hit a groove at 2,700 listings for three years straight. But then the impact from covid struck in 2020, and the listings count was 15% lower than the previous years.

But then 2021 was even worse!

If you remember last year, we did a contest for readers to guess the number of listings in January, and everyone came in much higher than the actual listing count. The final total was 288 (Derek did get tickets).

As it turned out, it was an omen for the inventory all year.

Let’s do it again!  To keep an eye on what will be the #1 predictor on how the spring season will roll out, let’s guess the number of NSDCC listings this month!

The recent history is below – leave your guess in the comment section.

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1-31
Year
Total # of Listings
2017
393
2018
426
2019
418
2020
353
2021
288

If there is a baseball season, the winner will get four tickets to a Padres game!  They aren’t front row, but they are pretty good seats:

There may only be a dozen or so guesses, so take part – your chances of winning are good!

My general sense of what will happen, based on the number of January listings:

450 or more listings: Frenzy will be over within 30 days.

400-450 listings: Causes a wait-and-see with some buyers.

300-400 listings: Super-charges the environment to ultra-frenzy conditions!

Under 300 listings: Painfully slow opening to the selling season.

Give it a guess!

Inventory Watch

Last week was the gap week for people returning from the holidays.

It’s GO time now!

To help describe today’s market conditions, here are two notes on today’s inventory:

The NSDCC median list price today is $5,495,000.

There are 22 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad priced under $2,000,000.

Wow!

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Over List, December

Impressive momentum to wrap up the year, with almost half of the buyers feeling the need to pay over list:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have the higher-end buyers figured it out that paying over list could be a ruse though?

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
71%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
64%
76%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
56%
50%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
46%
20%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%
22%
13%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The December sales were a little soft, historically, but the inventory has been decimated:

NSDCC December Sales

2017: 224

2018: 196

2019: 227

2020: 290

2021: 182

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500

The median list price dropped and the median sales price went up!

The median sales price is 9% higher than the median list price!

The average LP and SP were almost identical for the second month in a row.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Rate Bump

Mortgage rates in the mid-3s in January should put some pep in the buyers’ step. From MND:

Regular readers know that we’re fond of setting the weekly record straight in cases where day-to-day rate movements paint a drastically different picture than weekly surveys.  When it comes to the latter, there’s really only one game in town.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey is not only the longest running weekly survey.  It’s also by far and away the most widely cited in financial media.  It’s even relied upon by the mortgage industry for certain calculations that affect borrower eligibility.

Unfortunately, the rate that Freddie published today (3.22% for a 30yr fixed) is a drastic departure from reality.  3.375% would be an aggressive rate quote this afternoon, and the average lender is closer to 3.50%!  A gap of just over 0.25% might not seem like a lot, but consider that it held inside a range roughly half as big for the entirety of the 4th quarter of 2021!  It can take months for rates to rise a quarter of a point and we just did it in a few days.

(more…)

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