Rates at All-Time Low (Again!)

From MND:

Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender.  That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen during the previous 3 business days.  Even so, today’s underlying market movement might be a bit of a wake-up call for anyone waiting to lock an interest rate.

In general, the decision to lock or float a mortgage rate has had low consequences recently.  While that will likely continue to be the case until the coronavirus situation meaningfully improves, it doesn’t mean we should fall asleep at the wheel.  We need to remain vigilant for signs that the most recent all-time low mortgage rates are the last we’ll see for months or years.

Today served as a fairly non-threatening wake-up call in that regard–at least for those following the intraday movement in the bond market.  Mortgage rates are ultimately dictated by the bond market.  When yields move higher (and specifically when mortgage-backed bond prices are moving lower), we need to be on the lookout for mortgage rates to move up.  That was exactly the sort of market movement we saw this morning, and it forces some of the risk takers out there to question how many times they will push their luck before finally resigning to lock.

There is NO WAY to know when rates have finally bottomed.  So it’s best to decide a personal set of rules as to how you’ll approach the lock/float decision.

What can we know about the future?  That’s tough because coronavirus has changed the playbook to some extent.  In general, though, mortgage lenders are hesitant to drop rates very aggressively when they’re already at all-time lows.  I can also tell you that, outside of an apocalyptic scenario, mortgage rates are highly unlikely to drop by more than half a percent (which is still significant).  Even dropping by that much would require a significant deterioration in the covid narrative.

But how about we discuss this in a slightly simpler way.  People always ask me for predictions, and I always tell them why it would be silly for me to provide and for them to put any stock in such things.  What I CAN do is give you my sense of the most and least probable rate ranges within the next 3.5 months (presidential election will likely create new volatility for better or worse).

Most probable: 0.25 lower to 0.25 higher
Somewhat probable:  0.25 to 0.50 higher
Less probable: 0.25 to 0.5 lower OR 0.50 to 0.75 higher
Improbable: >0.5 lower or greater than 0.75 higher

Please keep in mind that this is as of July 8, 2020.  Things can and do change rapidly when it comes to pandemics and financial markets.  That said, if your takeaway is that we’re slightly more likely to see a 0.5% move higher than a 0.5% move lower, that is indeed what I am saying.  Again, it would take further deterioration in the covid narrative to reverse that order.  That’s totally possible, but it’s not a given as of today.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/948995.aspx

Leucadia Sheridan

I love this video’s length and quality – it makes you want to visit!

Welcome to the Sanctuary, an incredibly private architectural masterpiece with whitewater ocean, lagoon and sunset views. This extraordinary mid-century modern home and its guest house sit on nearly an acre of Batiquitos Lagoon-front land, positioned behind a gated entry and set well away from the road. The main house (3 BR) and detached guest house (1+ BR) harmonize perfectly and both feature floor to ceiling windows. Sellers will consider offers between $4.8M and $6M (closed today for $5,399,450 cash).

Home Prices to Decline?

One of the more-accurate forecasters is predicting that home prices will start dropping:

Strong home purchase demand in the first quarter of 2020, coupled with tightening supply, has helped prop up home prices through the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. However, the anticipated impacts of the recession are beginning to appear across the housing market. Despite new contract signings rising year over year in May, home price growth is expected to stall in June and remain that way throughout the summer. CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts a month-over-month price decrease of 0.1% in June and a year-over-year decline of 6.6% by May 2021.

Unlike the Great Recession, the current economic downturn is not driven by the housing market, which continues to post gains in many parts of the country. While activity up until now suggests the housing market will eventually bounce back, the forecasted decline in home prices will largely be due to elevated unemployment rates. This prediction is exacerbated by the recent spike in COVID-19 cases across the country.

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx

Expecting prices to fall that quickly is flawed, however.

They are ignoring that for home prices to go down, we would need a load – probably a majority – of sellers who are willing to sell for less than the last guy got.  In addition, it would take realtors who recognize what’s needed, and be able to properly advise their sellers on lower pricing.

It ain’t going to happen.

Listing agents only have one pitch – to berate the buyer agents into paying the seller’s price.  If we ever get to the point where buyers object to the constantly-rising prices, and/or we run out of buyers altogether, then there will be a long stall before sellers and agents re-calibrate.

Recognizing that a shift in pricing is needed will be hampered by all the usual excuses.

The seller retorts of “I’m In No Rush”, “I Don’t Need to Sell”, and the classic, “I’m Not Going to Give It Away”, will be doused with coronavirus blame before any sellers – even the desperate ones – would consider selling for less than what they think they deserve.

Sales will slow first, so keep an eye on them – but it would take 1-2 years of stallout before sellers and agents start believing that they might not get their price.

Statewide Showings Subside (Slightly)

I’m not alarmed here with a statewide drop-off in showings:

  1. Showings are 37.4% above those in early March.
  2. They are way ahead of last year!
  3. It was going so good that a drop-off was inevitable.
  4. Showings declined this time last year too – might be seasonal.

If you would have predicted this market bounce-back in April, nobody would have believed it!

Inventory Watch

What a week!

  • We had more new pendings than new listings (88 vs. 83), which rarely happens,
  • The total number of pendings in the $1.0M – $1.5M range jumped by 13 and we now have more pendings than actives in that category, which has never happened.
  • The number of pendings between $2.0M – $3.0M increased by twelve to 59, and
  • The number of pendings priced over $3M rose by ten to 57.

Tremendous activity during a week of troubling pandemic news.

Are buyers trying to hurry up and hunker down?  It appears so!

The takeaway is that the inventory is not growing, which means that the current pricing is working.  As long as there isn’t surge of unsold listings, buyers have little negotiating power and are forced to pay the man!

(more…)

Escalation Clause To Win A Bidding War

I don’t accept these when I’m the listing agent because it’s not fair to the rest of the bidders.

Here’s what C.A.R. has to say:

Introduction

Q1. What is an escalation clause?

A1. An escalation clause (also called a relative bid or “sharp” bid) is a provision added to an offer or counter offer where the buyer offers “X dollars more” than the next highest offer.  For example, an offer that states, “The purchase price shall be $1,000 higher than any other offer,” contains an escalation clause.

Q2. Why make an offer with an escalation clause? 

A2. The escalation clause allows the buyer to make the highest offer but only by the minimal amount necessary to beat out other offers. At first blush, it seems to be a savvy strategy.

II. Enforceability

Q3. If accepted, do such offers create enforceable contracts? 

A3. Mostly likely, yes. Although no published case addresses escalation clauses in the context of a typical real estate offer/counter offer situation, the 1991 case of Carver v Teitsworth involved the enforcement of an escalation clause in the context of sealed bids for real property, one of which the seller was bound to accept when the bids were opened. The Court stated, “A relative bid may be valid, but only where a party expressly solicits relative bids or such bidding is objectively reasonable as being customary in a particular trade or industry.”

Based on this case, escalation clauses may create binding real estate contracts, depending upon custom in a particular trade or industry.  While sealed bidding is not common, in many areas of the state, particularly those experiencing a “hot” or competitive market, it is not unusual or unexpected to see an offer with an escalation clause.  Accordingly, there is a good chance if a seller accepts an offer with an escalation clause it would be considered objectively reasonable and will be enforceable.

Of course, unlike in the sealed bid situation present in the Carver case where the seller may have been surprised by the escalation clause, in a typical real estate offer/counter offer scenario, the seller is not bound to accept any particular offer and may accept, reject or counter any offer received.  Further, in the absence of a confidentiality agreement, the seller may disclose one buyer’s offer to another in an effort to generate a higher sales price.  These factors further favor the enforceability of an offer with an escalation clause voluntarily accepted by a seller in the typical context.

III. Contractual Considerations

Q4. Should there be a cap indicating the maximum price? For example, should the buyer offer “XXXX dollars more” than any other offer but “not to exceed” a certain maximum price?

A4. On the face of it, this seems like a good idea since it limits the buyer’s exposure to paying an exorbitant price in the event another buyer makes an outrageously high offer. But, on reflection, in the typical real estate scenario it has a fatal flaw. Once the buyer makes known the cap amount, the buyer has given away the maximum price at which they are willing to buy. If the seller has not received an offer as high as the maximum set by the escalation clause, the seller, armed with this information, can then simply counter at that maximum price or use it as leverage to get more from other prospective purchasers.

Either way there is a problem for buyers. Without the cap, they risk being bound to an outrageously high price. But with the cap, they’ve given away critical information to the seller about how much they are willing to pay.

Q5. Should there be a floor price establishing the minimum amount the buyer is offering to pay? For example, should the buyer offer “XXXX dollars or $1,000 higher than any other offer received, whichever is greater”?

A5. There are pros and cons to such a provision. On the plus side, in the event there is no competing offer, then the buyer’s offer, if accepted, would still create a binding contract. Thus, by including a floor price the buyer adds certainty to the offer that is the equivalent of an offer without an escalation clause. On the other hand, if no other offer matched the buyer’s floor price, the buyer will wind up paying more than if the buyer had only included an escalation clause.

There are different ways a buyer could make such an offer.  It is not recommended to say, “$XXXX or $1,000 higher than any other offer received” since it is unclear which is being offered, the fixed price or the escalation price? Such an offer could be interpreted as ambiguous and be unenforceable.  Instead, the offer might state, “$XXXX or $1,000 higher than any other offer received, whichever is greater.”  Or another way to say this is, “$1,000 higher than any other offer received, but no less than $XXXX.” With this type of wording the buyer is more clearly committing to a minimum price while at the same time more clearly indicating a willingness to pay more, but only if needed.

Q6. Should the buyer include a provision that allows for verification of the next highest competing offer?

A6. Yes. Since the buyer is making an offer dependent upon the offers of other buyers, it makes sense that the buyer should be able to verify that those other offers were in fact bona fide offers. The buyer may include language such as:  “Seller shall, upon acceptance, provide buyer with a copy of the highest offer received.  Buyer has a right to contact that prospective purchaser making that offer, or his or her agent, to verify the validity of that offer and that the other offer is in fact a bona fide offer.”

While the listing agent may be uncomfortable handing over another buyer’s offer to the accepted buyer with the escalation clause, the NAR Code of Ethics provides that, in  general, offers are not confidential, and both the price and terms may legally be disclosed to other buyers unless all parties and their agent have signed a written confidentiality agreement (such as C.A.R. form CND). Even a listing agent acting as a dual agent might be able to reveal details of an in-house buyer’s offer where the in-house buyer has consented to such by signing C.A.R. form PRBS (“Possible Representation of More Than One Buyer or Seller – Disclosure and Consent”) or form SBSA (“Statewide Buyer and Seller Advisory”).

Q7. What happens if all buyers, or even two or more buyers, make offers with escalation clauses at the same time?

A7. In this situation,  there is a chance that the seller’s acceptance will not result in the creation of a binding contract. A contract can only be created where there is an objective way of arriving at a discernable price.  If more than one buyer includes an escalation clause, it is unclear which offer is used as the basis for calculating the escalation clause. It could be the next highest fixed price offer, or it could be the other escalation offer.  If the latter, then there is a never ending escalation (where neither escalation offer has a cap or maximum price).  Should this situation arise, rather than accept one of the multiple escalation offers, the seller would be well-advised to issue multiple counter offers.

IV. Risk Management Approach

Q8. Should the buyer be cautioned against making an offer with an escalation clause?

A8. Yes. Given that the enforceability of such a contract is not 100% assured, and given the potential pitfalls as discussed in the previous questions, the buyer should be advised to speak with their own legal counsel prior to making such an offer.

Q9. Can a broker adopt a policy discouraging the use of escalation clauses since such offers may lead to disputes, especially in light of the complications in drafting such a provision?

A9. Yes. State law requires brokers to adopt policies and procedures for their office. Certainly, there would be nothing improper for a broker to adopt a policy discouraging the use of escalation clauses in offers. Another possibility is that a broker could adopt a policy prohibiting their agents from writing such a provision thereby placing the onus upon the buyer directly, or more appropriately, on the buyer’s attorney to draft this type of offer.

Q10. Where can I obtain additional information?

A10. This legal article is just one of the many legal publications and services offered by C.A.R. to its members. For a complete listing of C.A.R.’s legal products and services, please visit car.org/legal.

Readers who require specific advice should consult an attorney.

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